09-10 Season Preview: Hornets

New Orleans Hornets

This team, out of any of the other playoff-hopeful teams, has the least margin for error. I’m talking microscopic. Could the 09-10 Bugs compete for a championship this year? While anything can and does happen in the NBA, the Bugs have a realistic shot at a championship if three main things come to pass.

The first is what avoided them last season…health. Everyone needs to stay healthy this year. Last season, Tyson Chandler missed 37 games, Morris Peterson missed 39 and Peja Stojakovic missed 21. Add to that Julian Wright only playing in 54 contests due to falling in and out of favor with Byron Scott, and it’s amazing that last year’s team won 46 games.

Peja, in particular, is key to the Hornets’ chances of making a championship run. When Peja is healthy and shooting like he has proven he can over the course of his career, the Bugs are formidable. This is a dude who is only 31-years-old. Last season, back spasms not only caused him to miss games, it also hampered him into missing plenty of shots. His field goal percentage fell below 40 percent for the first time since his rookie campaign.

But remember, this is a guy who was the best shooter in the league for six or seven years running (no offense Ray Ray). He posted back-to-back-to-back seasons of 48 percent shooting, and then averaged 24 a game for second best in the league on his way to carrying the Kings to a 55-27 record while finishing fourth in the MVP voting. (I don’t want to throw salt on an open, festering wound, but CP3 finished fifth last season).

Point is, dude was and has the potential to be wicked good. Injuries have pretty much derailed his career up to this point, but it should be no surprise then, that when he was healthy two seasons ago, and played in 77 games and shot 44 percent, that the Hornets won 56 games, took the Spurs to seven in the second round, and had CP3, this close, to an MVP. With Paul and David West on board, the Bugs don’t need Peja to be an MVP, just a lethal and efficient and healthy third scoring option.

Finally, the Bugs will need huge contributions from all of their young players. Before we get into this point, I’d like to point out the major weakness of this team and why it will be hard for them to break the top five in the west let alone contend for a championship even if everything breaks in their favor.

Similar to the plight of the Oklahoma City Thunder, the Bugs just don’t have enough big bodies. Sure, they have four power-forwards in David West, Sean Marks, Ike Diogu, and the recently acquired Darius Songalia, but West and Diogu are undersized, Songalia fits in, but is not a difference maker, and Marks is 34, thin and not athletic. As for center, the Hornets have Okafor and the thus far hugely disappointing Hilton Armstrong.

Fun fact. There’s nobody over 7-feet on the roster. And in a conference that boasts Andrew Bynum, Pau Gasol, Greg Oden, Joel Przybilla, Amare Stoudemire, Al Jefferson, Andres Biedrins, Chris Kaman, Marcus Camby, etc. etc. not having 7-footers who are at least decent is a huge problem.

Armstrong has proven to be one of the most turnover-prone players in the NBA. To make matters worse, statistically, his rebound rate last year was only slightly better than the 6-foot Chris Paul. Chandler blossomed when he turned 24, so there remains a sliver of hope for Hilton, but unlike Hilton, Chandler showed signs of being good before hooking up with CP3, while Hilton’s been pretty god-awful even playing with him.

The addition of Okafor, at the very least, is an upgrade over Chandler in that he’s more likely to play 75 plus games. He’s also more well-rounded bringing a much better offensive game. But there’s plenty of downside to his acquisition as well. Okafor is undersized, can’t jump or finish like Chandler, and doesn’t play bigger than he is (a la Chuck Hayes, Charles Barkley, etc.). He’s also not as mobile as Chandler, thus creating a major dilemma for the team’s stated desire to run more this season.

Of course, Okafor’s never had the opportunity to play with anyone even remotely close to the caliber of Paul, and seeing as how CP3 is widely considered to be the best point guard in the league, I’m sure Okafor’s game will improve through osmosis. Chandler’s game exploded when he hooked up with Paul and I suspect Okafor’s game will have a similar up-tick. He could very well shoot over 60 percent this year. Okafor's offensive presence will also ease the burden on David West. West has been a solid second option for three years running now, but despite playing back-to-back seasons of 76 games, over his career, he hasn't been the most durable.

But even if Okafor posts better numbers than last season and West plays another 76 games, the Bugs will still struggle to match up with the bigger teams. I mean, West had a career year in rebounding averaging 8.9 two seasons ago, so Okafor has got his work cut out for him. Signing James Posey (whose "intangibles" and defense were perfect for the Celtics at the money he used to make, but remain the bare minimum for a team who needs much more from a player making $6.5 million) two offseasons ago instead of a big body continues to haunt New Orleans.

Okay, back to the youngins. The Hornets, as commissioned by owner George Shinn, will be looking to develop and play their young guys, which should spell out good things for both the team as a whole and those stated young guys.

Julian Wright, Marcus Thornton, Diogu, Armstrong and Darren Collison should therefore get every opportunity to develop and succeed.

Backup point guard, a huge positional weakness last year, suddenly has become a strength with the drafting of Darren Collison. After trying to fill the position with journeymen Devin Brown, Antonio Daniels and Mike James to varying degrees of unsuccess last season, the Bugs now finally have a player who can orchestrate a successful team while Paul rides pine.

My affection for and excitement over UCLA alum Collison is well documented in this blog. But his play during summer league (18.5 points, 4 assists on 45 percent shooting) and his history at UCLA that includes one trip to the championship game and two other final four appearances, should give Hornets fans comfort that when Paul comes out of the game, the ball will be in very capable hands.

What will be interesting to see is how much Collison and Okafor play together. Collison played four years under Ben Howland who ran half-court, slowed-down, methodical offensive sets. As mentioned above, this is ideal for Okafor’s offensive game. Either way, Collison’s presence will lessen Paul’s minutes and provide a confidence in the bench that wasn’t there last season.

While there are those who think the Hornets reached for Collison at 21, I’m of the opinion that any big man they took at that position had too many question marks to make a true difference this year. San Antonio taking DeJuan Blair was lower risk because of the lower draft choice and because he won’t be crucial to their rotation. Anything he gives the Spurs will be a major bonus. But Blair on the Hornets? That would be like a much shorter Chandler saga all over again. No thanks.

Another boon to the bench will be Marcus Thornton who was one of the top scorers in the Summer League and has a varied offensive arsenal and good range that should help out a second unit in dire need of scoring.

And whether or not he starts or comes off the bench, the wildly inconsistent Wright must take a huge step forward in his game this year for any talk of a deep playoff run. While a superb defender, Wright settles for too many jump shots and has no post game whatsoever. Consistency on offense will go a long way for him to get minutes.

Diogu, is entering his fifth year, but has only played in 187 total games, at about 12 minutes per contest. With a career 16.1 PER, he is the prototypical John Hollinger player in that he puts up efficient and eye-opening per-minute stats, but has never actually gotten the minutes. Case in point, his ten game stint with Sacramento last year resulted in a 24.9 PER which would make him better than Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett, Al Jefferson and Amare Stoudemire. Hornets success this year hinges on if Diogu can come in with the Bugs second unit and be the offensive force his numbers suggest he is.

All in all, if healthy, and if the young players progress as planned, and if the Bugs can get 07-08 Peja back, then it's within the very realistic realm of possibility that this team will be a 50 to 55 win squad and could finish as high as the 2^nd or 3^rd seed. If any or all of those things go awry, the Hornets will struggle to a bottom seed or might fall out of the playoffs all together.

Men from the Boys

Loved this comment by Byron Scott,

"This is still pitty-pat basketball to me. This is not physical and aggressive basketball the way it was in the '80s and '90s. This is so watered down compared to then that it's unbelievable. I think Kobe (Bryant) said it best: some of the things that (Utah Coach) Jerry Sloan used to do and some of the things we did in the '90s, they wouldn't allow you to do now. From that standpoint, it's not really a physical game. I wish they would go back to some of those rules from the '90s. It would separate the men from the boys."

I think this comment is hilarious considering that if the game was played the way it was back in his day, Scott's best player, the supposed best point guard on the planet, Chris Paul, would not be nearly as good as he is.

I honestly believe that Paul is struggling so much in this year's playoffs because he's not getting the calls he was getting during the regular season. Outside of Dywane Wade's miracle finals where I'm pretty sure he got a foul called against the Mavs for the wind generated from one of the ref's whistles, the playoffs are a tougher, meaner, more physical beast. That's why Nash's Suns could never make it. That's why Nowitzki couldn't win. That's why the Lakers didn't win last year.

Tough, gritty teams, like the Spurs, like the 3peat Lakers, and like the Celtics, have been the champs.

Look, I'm not trying to take anything away from Paul's toughness. Pound for pound, he's probably the toughest guy in the league (would've said AI, but he quit, and quitters aren't tough). What I'm saying is that if you could grab and hold, hand check, clothesline guys without getting suspended for half a year, then Chris Paul, at 6 feet, 180, would get creamed.

Paul is great, maybe the best, at creating contact. Nine times out of 10 he's the one who initiates the contact to draw a whistle. He's a master at changing pace, then stopping on a dime to get guys to run into him, or driving hard to the basket and putting his shoulder (and elbows) into bigger defenders to get a whistle.

But, he's not getting those calls in the playoffs.

-Speaking of not getting calls, Mr. Kobe Bean Bryant needs to shut up. He bitches after every single non-call. In fact, I'm kind of tired of all the Lakers whining about non-calls. Play the game. Pau and Bynum scream after every play like they've been raped. Kobe often doesn't get back on defense because he's glaring at the ref. STOP moaning, get back on defense, and get the ball back.

-Back to the toughness aspect of the playoffs. With a healthy Kenyon Martin, a healthy Nene, a drug-free Birdman and a swapping of the Answer for Mr. Big Shot, the Nuggets have become a nasty defensive team. Can't say enough about the defensive swagger of Dahntay Jones either. Even Melo, and to a lesser extent J.R. Smith have bought into the defensive mindset, and this post season, it shows. It's shining even.

-Rajon Rondo, I apologize for saying you were only good because of Pierce, Ray Ray and K.G. Clearly, you are the Celtics best player right now. Rondo's averaging 24 points, 11.5 assists, 10.5 rebounds (yup, a trip dub) and 3.5 steals on 48.7 percent shooting while only turning it over 1.5 times. If the C's could've pulled out that first game (I'm looking at you and your bricked free throw Paul Pierce) then Rondo would be the unquestioned MVP of this postseason so far. And for those people who think the Celtics need to win this year or their window is closed, Rondo's name should be and will soon be up there with Deron Williams, Chris Paul and Tony Parker. Add him to KG, Jesus and the Truth? That's still the best team in the East, maybe in the League.

Beides, there's no gaurantee the Cavs will be just as good or even make it to the Conference Finals in the East next year. Big Z and Big Ben will be older, and there's a possibility Varejao won't come back. And if Blake Griffin is added to the Washington Wizards, look out for that team too. Yeah, you heard me right. The Wiz could be damn scary next year with a healthy roster and Blake Griffin.

-So much for the Hawks sweeping the Heat. Yeah, Wade had a great game last night. He hit 6-10 from beyond the arc (one of which was that crazy bank shot over two guys fading to his right about three feet beyond the line), but let's see if he or his team can repeat that performance three more times. I highly doubt the Heat are going to shoot 66 percent again. I say Hawks in 6.

-This story about Tracy McGrady and then this one from ESPN's Truehoop got me thinking about why Dywane Wade can't be put ahead of Kobe Bryant or Lebron James as far as best player goes. Health is definitely a skill and Bryant and James have proven they can stay healthy. Guys like Manu Ginobili and Tracy McGrady have or had the skill/talent to be considered the best in the game, but neither player had the genes or the sheer will power to stay off the injured reserve. I remember a time when it was a legitimate argument of whether T-Mac was better than Kobe. Now, that argument seems stupid and inane, but during that 02-03 season, it was close, especially seeing as how Kobe had Shaq and Mizzy had, er, Andrew DeClercq.

For all the advanced statistics that will tell me that so and so player has per 40-minute averages of this and a rebound rate of that, if he doesn't actually play 40 minutes a game for a full season, then I can't rank that player ahead of another player who does, just because that player is not as efficient.

So, right now, Bron Bron is the best player, Kobe the most well rounded and skilled.

Wade, he's like a slightly lesser version of each mixed together.

And while we're on the topic of best player, the MVP award will be handed out soon. All those Denver fans shouting for Chauncey Billups are looking pretty smart right now, especially considering how he's handled Paul in their matchup thus far. But, as much as people want to give credit solely to Chauncey, the remergence of Anderson along with a fully healthy Nene are equally responsible for the Nugs turnaround this year.

For those people who were touting Dwight Howard as an MVP candidate, no most valuable player fouls out of a must win home game in the playoffs and then watches from the bench as his team wins anyways--winning behind the shooting stroke of a rookie no less. Orlando's in more trouble than I think they're willing to admit.

Stats, Stats, Stats.

By now, everyone has read the Michael Lewis New York Times piece on the importance of Shane Battier. If not, here it is.

Lewis points out the different problems with the current way of rating players, namely by the stats that are available. With all the new mathematical formulas being produced by guys like John Hollinger, David Berri, Daryl Morey, etc., it’s a mystery why the NBA doesn’t simply begin accumulating basic stats and widening its scope with what stats are relevant.

Money and star power drive the NBA, and most stars are created by the numbers they put up, which leads them to getting paid more. In the case of some players (Corey Maggette I’m looking at you), better stats doesn’t always figure into a better team or a better game, or, on a larger scale, a better NBA.

This being the case, instead of trying to tell players that playing Basketball A is better than playing Basketball B, simply expand the stats and give relevance to aspects of the game that don’t include scoring, but most certainly affect and shape how the ball gets into the basket (or doesn’t).

The problem with the current stats in the NBA is that there simply aren’t enough of them. In professional baseball, you can track how many times a guy gets a hit when he’s playing outside, at night, when the temperature is 62 degrees in the month of April. The NBA doesn’t need that sort of analysis, but expanding past points, rebounds and assists is a definite must and should have happened years ago.

There are almost no truly helpful defensive statistics to speak of. A guy like Battier should get paid more if he contributes to winning, which would ultimately encourage other players, up-and-coming players, children still learning, to play the game “the right way.”

The biggest blemish on Michael Jordan’s influence, was that his game and subsequent fame created a whole generation of ballers who tried to emulate him but lacked the skill to do so. I mean, nobody’s Jordan—Kobe and Lebron included.

Hence, a generation of a bunch of me-first, shoot-first, ball hogs, who, to the detriment of the league, were handsomely rewarded for the number of points they put up.

This is just a basic beginning, and comments and suggestions are encouraged. But I’ve put together a list of both defensive and offensive statistics that would infinitely benefit the NBA.

DEFENSE

1.) Possession Change Blocks (PCBlk): Blocks that lead directly to possession of the ball.

-Blocks (Blk): Blocks that result in a missed shot, but where the offensive player retains the ball.

2.) Possession Change Deflections (PCD): Deflections or tipped balls that result in a change of possession (similar to a steal).

-Steals: When a player directly takes the ball away or intercepts a ball from the other team thus resulting in a change of possession.

3.) Out of Bounds Deflections (OBD): Deflections or tipped balls that go out of bounds.

4.) Turnovers Forced (ToF): When a defensive player hounds a ball handler and it leads to some sort of turnover—bad pass, travel, three seconds, etc. Includes double teams.

5.) Offensive Fouls Drawn (OFD): Charges taken.

6.) Block fouls (BF): Due to the subjective nature of blocks/charges, record the number of defensive blocking fouls. A defensive player who amasses 3 blocking fouls is of a higher value than someone who commits 3 touch fouls.

-Personal Fouls (PF): Would be the total accumulation of fouls.

7.) Shots Contested (SC): Any time a player puts up a hand within a foot of an offensive player shooting. Would most certainly be up for personal opinion by the score keeper, but it would at least give an indication as to how many times a player actually does this.

8.) Changed Shots: Any time a player causes an offensive player to adjust his shot, pass out or miss his shot.

9.) Defensive stops: An accumulation of the times a team gets a stop given to every individual player on defense at the time. Will somewhat account for zone defenses and include possessions that end with missed freethrows. This stat would by no means be perfect, but it’s a more exact indicator than +/- and would have nothing to do with offensive output.

OFFENSE

1.) Fouls Drawn: Records how many times an offensive player gets fouled. Includes non-shooting fouls.

2.) Mega Assist: Assist leading directly to a dunk or layup (alley-oop)

3.) Free throw Assist: Assist that leads to freethrows (1/2 assist for 1 made freethrow, 1 assist for both made freethrows).

4.) Outlet Pass: Number of times player receives ball and throws past half-court.

5.) Assist-Assist (Hockey Assist): Assist given to a pass that comes before the pass that leads to a made bucket.

6.) Screen Assist: Any screen set that directly ends with an offensive basket made.

7.) Double Team Drawn: The number of times player attracts two active defenders.


A lot of these new stats are really subjective, but the only truly non-subjective stats are made buckets. Even rebounds can get hazy when it comes to tapping it to oneself (think the Rodman rebound). Some of the stats, like Possession Change Deflections and block fouls would change the way we look at steals and fouls, but change is needed, if not entirely good.

Ask Obama.

Subjectivity is a part of basketball whether we like it or not. And no matter how closely we scrutinize referees or how many replays or how many refs we throw out on the court, there will always be blown calls.

In my opinion, Chris Paul commits an offensive foul every time down the court. Ryan Schwan of Hornes247 might believe Paul’s just a crafty devil. Either way, Paul initiates contact and the majority of the time gets the call.

The same subjective nature of fouls called could be said about Shaq. And Lebron. Etc.

What these stats I’ve proposed would do, despite a relative amount of subjectivity involved, is improve the way we record the game and give greater insight into the level of talent and skill that each and every player has on the court.

I mean, why else would a brilliant mind like Jerry Sloan play Jarron Collins 10 minutes a game?

Stats should be able to tell us why.

On Point

If I told you that there was a point guard out there who, when given 40 minutes of starter’s PT, averages 16 points, 9.5 assists (with a 3.1 assist to turnover ratio), 1.7 steals and 4.5 rebounds, all on 45 percent shooting, you’d say those are all-star worthy numbers, especially in the East.*

Well, you might be surprised that this dude was coming off the bench and only getting 15 minutes a game. So who was starting in front of him? Chris Paul? Deron Williams? Tony Parker? Uh, try Luke Ridnour.

Now, those numbers aren’t rounded per 40 minutes, those are actual game time 40 minute numbers. His name is Ramon Sessions, and if you don’t remember a 5 game stretch last April during which dude averaged 14 points and 15 dimes on 50 percent shooting, then you obviously weren’t playing fantasy basketball. I picked him up and then dropped him and nearly lost my league’s championship due to that stupid move.

Well, this year, against Detroit this past Saturday, due dropped 44 points and 12 dimes on 72 percent shooting.

Never understood why Milwaukee went out and traded for Luke Ridnour this past offseason. I get why they traded away Mo Williams. Big contract, injury prone, wasn’t known to play defense, and Sessions seemed to be a big time talent ready to take over. But, looking at how well Williams has been playing (big time all-star snub) this season, seems like Damon Jones, Ridnour and Adrian Griffin is a ho hum package.

Ridnour’s played pretty well this year. He’s hit some big shots, but Sessions is the real deal and should have been manning the point all season long. Over the next four weeks, with Ridnour sidelined, the Bucks will get to see a whole bunch of Sessions. He’s got to work on a consistent J, but he’s great at getting to the hole and finds open men.

* * *

I know it’s only over the course of 6 games, but anyone who still doesn’t believe Deron Williams is at least on par with Chris Paul, better do a double take. Finally starting to show his health after playing most of the season on a still recovering ankle, Deron has gradually played himself into his MVP caliber form.

In the new year, Deron’s averaging 23 points, 10.3 dimes and 3 boards on a scalding 49 percent shooting. Chris Paul’s at 22, 11 and 5.4 on 50 percent. Paul’s been better, but no question there is a legitimate debate there.

* * *

Sometimes a new coach and a little bit of freedom is all a guard needs to take off. The Grizz have most assuredly been boosted by the return of Darko Milicic (only two of Memphis’ 15 victories have come without the big Serb), but it’s been a loosening of the reigns by new head coach Lionel Hollins that has helped starting guard Mike Conley Jr. take that next step a lot of us bball freaks thought he would take this year.

After a shaky first game with Hollins at the helm, Conley’s really responded to more freedom posting 13.6 points, 6.4 assists and 4.4 boards on 44 percent shooting over the past 7 games. The most important stat, 4 of those games ended in Grizzlies’ wins.

* * *
Another example of setting a point guard free can be seen on the Dallas Mavericks. At the end of last month, coach Rick Carlisle told Kidd to be more aggressive and stopped calling plays for the 14-year, surefire hall of fame veteran. The result? A 5-1 record against some pretty good teams—Orlando, Portland, and Miami. The results shouldn’t be surprising, least of all to Mavericks brass, who, according to owner Mark Cuban’s blog, have J-Kidd rated as the second most productive player behind only Lebron James based on the Mavs’ own enhanced and complicated player and team evaluation system.

No disrespect for Mr. Trip Dub, but any system that evaluates team and player stats and comes out with J-Kidd as the second highest rated player in the league has a LOT more tweaking to do before it gets it right. Just for the record, Kobe Bryant is 15th on the list, behind border all-stars like Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis and luminary talents like…er, Randy Foye.