Throwing out Trades

Portland wants a point guard who can hit shots, not turn the ball over, has a lot of experience, and is great in the half court. Sounds like Jose Calderon to me. The Raptors want a point guard filled with potential who will push the tempo, likes to run and is exciting. Sounds like Sergio Rodriguez to me.

If the Blazers throw in their $3 million trade exception and Martell Webster, we’ve got something cooking. Calderon is a better version of Steve Blake. He always makes the right pass, loves to set up an offense in the half court (90 percent of the Blazers playbook) and is a great shooter. His defense isn’t what the Blazers crave, but word has them looking at trying to get Kidd or Nash, so defense obviously isn’t the biggest consideration here.

Calderon played in the Olympics and on the Spanish national team that won the world championships, so he’s got experience that Steve Blake just doesn’t have. He's far younger than Nash or Kidd or Andre Miller. The added bonus is that the Blazers get to rid themselves of the potential logjam at their wing spots by dealing Webster, who’s shooting and athleticism is precisely what the Raptors could use at the 2 or 3. Plus, Webster is only 22 years old and has reasonable contract.

The Blazers already had one of the most efficient offenses in the league last season, add Calderon to the mix, one of the most efficient point guards in the league, and we're looking at a crazy formidable offense. With another year of development, the thinking would be that Greg Oden can make up for any lack of defensive prowess on Calderon's part.

Another trade that I thought was really thinking outside the box is bringing Shaq back to Los Angeles. No, not the Lakers, but the other squad that calls Staples its home. The Clippers could offer Marcus Camby and Baron Davis for Shaq and Goran Dragic. This does two things for the Clippers. One, it rids them of BD's contract and two, it brings them instant ticket sales. Shaq has his own built in fan base here in LA. A lot of the Kobe haters have subsided since, oh, I dunno, last week. But that being said, while at the parade, I saw plenty of #34 jerseys amidst the sea of purple and gold. Shaq would bring the Clippers organization its biggest personality, since, well, ever, and add some much needed credibility to the laughingstock franchise of the NBA. Dragic would be thrown in just to give the Clips a point guard in return. I saw Dragic working out with BDA Sports (same agency that has helped Darren Collison and Brandon Jennings rise up the draft boards), so I know he's at least trying to get better.

With BD gone, the Clips could either search for a point guard via free agency, try to trade Kaman for a point guard, or get underway with the Eric-Gordon-as-point-guard project (that looks like it could be successful based on EG's play last season) and look to fill their vacancy at shooting guard via free agency. If Shaq doesn't work out, then the Clips will be free of $20 million next season and enter into the summer of 2010 with Eric Gordon, Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordan, Kaman and Zach Randolph plus a bunch of cap room. Once Randolph expires, retires or gets traded, the Clips future suddenly looks a lot more promising.

For the Suns, it gives them a dynamic point guard in case Steve Nash is really considering bolting for New York next year as well as the exact type of center that Amare Stoudemire needs...a shot blocking, rebounding machine who only needs maybe 6 to 8 offensive touches a game. Not only physically, but mentally Camby is the type of player that Amare should begin to learn from. He needed Shaq like a rapper needs more sycophants.

For next season, I think it would be fascinating to see how Nash and BD play together. I mean, Kerr has already tried everything possible, why not reinvent D'Antoni's wheel? The Suns want to go fast? Why not two elite point guards sharing the backcourt? We've seen some successful pairings of point-guard types sharing a backcourt. The Bad Boy Pistons had Isiah and Joe. This year, the Mavs ran with Kidd and Terry quite often and Charlotte had a nice go (relatively speaking) with Raymond Felton and D.J. Augustin. Of course, if the BD/Nash backcourt doesn't pan out, the Suns could always go to a point guard by committee approach. Two years ago, the Raptors were really successful with T.J. Ford and Jose Calderon interchanging from bench to starter. The Suns could do the same and keep both BD (who has had injury problems the past few years) and Nash (who has battled fatigue and back issues) fresh and happy for the playoffs.

This might not be the ideal fit for both franchises, but for the Suns, it's better than getting a straight cash dump. They'll get some of that in Camby's expiring, but will also get back talent (albeit slightly overpaid) that they wouldn't be able to find elsewhere. Even if Nash walks next year, BD, Jason Richardson, Leandro Barbosa and Amare Stoudemire could potentially be one piece away from legit championship material.

Some Tips on How to Fix the Clips

"I've taught you well young Jedi..."

As shown Wednesday night with their victory over the defending champion Celtics, the Clippers, when healthy and motivated, have enough talent to play with anyone. True, Boston was without Kevin Garnett. True, Paul Pierce hurt his thumb. True, the Cs were in the last game of a four-game westcoast road trip against some stiff competition (Utah, Denver and, er, Phoenix?).

Even still, the Clips were without Chris Kaman and Eric Gordon missed most of the second half with a bruised shoulder thanks to a nasty pick by Kendrick Perkins.

So, how to fix the Clips?

Obviously, a coaching change, or at least a coaching philosophy change is the most glaring necessity. Baron Davis needs to be allowed to do his thing on offense. On defense is another matter. This off-season, if Mike Dunleavy doesn’t fire himself, he should swallow his pride and strike up a deal between him and Baron that challenges BD to put in the effort and leadership on the defensive end every night. If Boomdizzle complies, he’ll be given the keys to the offense without any input from daddy Dunleavy.

Sounds like a fair compromise. I mean, this team is built to run. Zach Randolph flourished under Mike D’Antoni. Camby is a great passer and manned the middle in Denver’s top-rated, up-tempo offense the last couple of years. And Baron had his best seasons playing Nelly ball.

But that's on offense. The team's first priority should be focusing on becoming a defensive juggernaut. All the tools are there. A physical, athletic point guard. A gritty, scrappy young shooting guard. And a former defensive player of the year (Camby) as well as a 7-foot rebounding machine (Kaman). Sure, Randolph is a lost cause on defense, but Camby helped hide Allen Iverson and Carmelo Anthony last year. Covering for one out of five should be a breeze in comparison. In fact, they could pair off Randolph and Camby as the starting front court and Kaman and Jordan as the bench mob bigs.

All that’s left to shore up is the horrific, offensively inefficient black hole small forward spot. Notice how up top I neglected to mention that Al Thornton missed the game as a reason for the Clippers to be excited? That was intentional because frankly, it was probably this very reason that Clips had a shot to win in the first place.

I was of the opinion that Al Thornton was going to mature into a real basketball player this year. You can look at his 17 points per game and say, wow, he’s gotten a lot better from last season. Or you can look at the fact that his scoring rate has slightly gone down from 18.6 to 18.1 that his PER has actually gotten worse (12.3 from 12.5 a year ago) and that his three point percentage has fallen off a cliff. You will also notice that despite 10 more minutes per game, he’s only upped his other statistical averages slightly: 0.2 steals, 0.3 assists, 0.4 blocks and only 1 rebound (5.5 total for a 6-8 small forward with mad hops).

Kevin Arnotz over at Clipperblog has a very insightful analysis on the trouble with the Clippers small forward spot.

Thornton doesn’t shoot the three well at all (26 percent). He’s a definite ball stop who rarely ever passes (ranks 57th out of all small forwards in assist rate). He’s not an efficient scorer (ranked 38 out of all eligible small forwards in PER), getting to the line only 3.6 times per game despite his incredible leaping ability. Basically, he hoists up turn around jumpers all game. Plus, he’s a miserable defender who often looks lost to boot. If it wasn't for the lack of freethrows and passion to get to the rim, he's like the more inefficient version of Corey Maggette.

Has 17 point per game ever been more of a mirage?

Here’s an idea, the Clips need to scrap the Thornton project going forward. The Clippers, who didn’t move any pieces for expiring contracts despite the fact that they probably could have, have an opportunity to pick up some assets this off-season thanks to the horrible economic climate. Teams are selling low. Dunleavy needs to bargain hunt and Sterling needs to open up his pocket books just a little bit more taking on extra salary in order to field a team that could be very, very good.

For example, a player like Gerald Wallace would be ideal. He’s athletic, can kind of shoot the three, and is a great defender when not pressed to be the focal point on offense. He’d flourish running next to BD, as long as Dunleavy would be willing to let Baron do his thing. A Wallace deal might actually work out because he was being shopped hard (until his injury) this trade deadline.

Kaman for Wallace might not interest the Cats despite their desire for an offensive big to pair with Okafor, but the salaries are identical and the fit couldn’t be more perfect for both squads. Both have some questions—Wallace’s health, Kaman’s mental capacity (and health too)—but there’s no denying that if everything works out, both teams will be much better for making the trade.

A starting five of Baron Davis, Eric Gordon, Gerald Wallace, Zach Randolph and Marcus Camby? That could be a fierce defensive unit. The bench wouldn't be elite, but it wouldn't be that bad consisting of Al Thornton, DeAndre Jordan, Steve Novak, Mike Taylor and perhaps Ricky Davis and Brian Skinner. That team would be tough to beat and could even, if squinting in a certain light, be a championship contender...okay, well at least a second round playoff team.

Another guy who could work, and I know this sounds kind of weird since the Clips aren't quite championship material, but James Posey would be a really nice fit. Sure, by the end of his contract he'll be horrible, hell, the Hornets are already regretting his signing, but he has all the right tools to make the Clips a sick defensive team.

And with nearly $20 million left on his deal, the Hornets will be looking even harder this off-season to find cap relief (see attempted Chandler trade)

The Clips should have the necessary contracts to make that deal happen in three of the following: Mardy Collins, decent but by no means the answer; Ricky Davis, who will most likely exercise his player option because of how horribly he's played this year and the lack of a market for him next year due to the down economy and his rep as a problem child; Brian Skinner, ditto with the player option, but more because he sucks than anything personally bad about him; and/or Al Thornton.

Despite the anti-Thornton sentiment already posted, keeping Al would be better than getting rid of him. He’s got a fairly reasonable contract and is still young enough (I guess) to discover honest-to-goodness basketball skills to pair with his incredible athleticism.

In fact, if the Clips do get Posey for Skinner, Ricky and Collins, the Clips would have an incredibly deep roster with a credible backup at every position.

That’s a lot of money for a known penny-pinching, non-active owner to invest in a horrible economy on a 15-43 squad destined for a top five pick in next year’s draft lottery. But, defense wins championships, and the Clips could be one of the best defensive teams with health and the right small forward.

Of course, Ron Artest is going to be a free agent as well...and he's shooting that long ball a lot better this season.

Been Wrong. Been Right.

So far so good on most of WCS' pre-season predictions.

Though, for all the ones we nailed on the head, there’s also been a few where we’ve hit our collective thumb instead.

Sure, there were some gimme calls. The Lakers and Thunder for example. Everybody got those. NASCAR fanatics could've called those. It's not brain surgery to predict the Lakers would rock and the Thunder would hit rock bottom.

Houston’s had injuries, played ugly, but still find themselves at the top of the West. Ditto for Phoenix. Ditto for Utah. All at 11-7. Though, of the three, Utah is still the most promising. They’ve compiled their record without the services of their best player (Deron Williams) while dealing with injuries up and down their lineup (Kirilenko, Boozer, Williams, Brewer, etc.)

And, like Old Faithful, the freaking Spurs have been the freaking Spurs.

Here's a link to all those predictions if you missed them the first time around.

http://westcoastslant.blogspot.com/2008/10/how-west-was-won.html

As for the miscues…

I went against conventional wisdom and believed that the Clippers could eek their way into the first round of the playoffs. I thought Ricky Davis would have a great year. I thought Kaman and Camby would form a formidable duo. I thought the team defense would be one of the best in the league…yeah, well, I should’ve known. Never in my wildest dreams did I imagine them trading for Zach Randolph. I even joked about Dallas doing that trade in desperation. Well, these are desperate times in Clipper land, and that’s saying a lot. The main problem is simple. It’s talent (Baron) versus ideology (Dunleavy), and so far, it’s produced a 3-13 record. Yuck.

I also misfired on Minnesota. I didn’t really think they had a shot to make the playoffs, but I did believe they would be a much improved team. I listed seven factors that were necessary for the Wolves to make the postseason. Here’s the ones they’ve got semi-right. Al Jefferson is close to averaging 23 and 11 (22 and 10), but, in spite of a slightly better team defense, Big Al’s D isn’t close to where it needs to be. Half a factor fulfilled there. The Clippers, have, well, been the Clippers. 1.5 factors fulfilled. Kevin Love is kinda a legit NBA player, which makes it half a factor bringing our total to 2 factors fulfilled. And the ones that have gone wrong? Dallas has not fallen off a cliff—J Kidd’s actually playing pretty well (nowhere near Devin Harris however). Denver has risen to scary playoff opponent (more on this in a sec). Randy Foye had one transcendent game, and has otherwise been a huge disappointment. Corey McCants never happened (Brewer is now out for the season, which, with the infusion of Rodney Carney into the mix, might actually help the team’s offense). In the end 2 of 7 ain’t going to get it done. And it hasn’t. Minny’s currently sitting at 4-11.

I give myself a little bit of a break on the Denver prediction (still somewhat of a miscue) because I didn’t know they were going to trade for Chauncey. Mr. Big Shot has been a revelation for the team, and now, if everyone stays healthy (I’m talking to you Nene and you Kenyon Martin) this team could be very scary come playoff time. Their defense got better in spite of losing Camby (that’s thanks to the AI/Billups tradeoff) and they even have a decent bench. Once J.R. Smith smoothes things out with Karl, bringing Chris Anderson, Smith, an underrated Anthony Carter, Renaldo Balkman and Linas Kleiza off the pine is a definite asset.

Okay. So we've established some of the predictions I reached on. Some of the ones where a lot of things had to go right for them to be, well, right. As for the things I actually did get right? There are two big thoughts that have been money when most everyone else was saying differently.

The Hornets look dreadful. Their defense has been awful. Their current rating is worse than the league average. While Chris Paul has been stellar, David West, Peja Stojakovic, and Tyson Chandler are all playing worse than they did last season. And the bench? The bench has killed the team. Especially the lack of a point guard and any semblance of a decent bigman. If you added up the PERs of Hilton Armstrong, Sean Marks, Melvin Ely, and Mike James, their collective PER is 8 points less than Chris Paul’s PER (22.8 to 30.9). Pathetic. But, the bench is and will continue to be their problem. Using Devin Brown at the point guard position is not a long term nor short term solution. James Posey has played big, but his presence has made Julian Wright relatively, well, irrelevant.

And finally, my babies. I put them all the way into the top four in the West, and they’ve played a smidge better than that. That’s the Portland Trailblazers. While everyone was off riding the Hornets’ stinger, we here at Westcoast Slant believed that the Blazers, with an excellent, top-of-the-line coach (Nate McMillan, remember what he did with that Seattle team a few years back) and a huge host of talented, energetic, youth (as in 10 deep) would be a big player in the West. Atop the Northwest division (tied with Denver) Aldridge and Roy have been playing well (Roy got player of the week honors), the rooks, Batum, Fernandez and Oden have been better-than-expected to great, and Joel Przybilla has been out-of-this-world. Oh, and the bench is one of the best in the biz.

The reason for this post, is because Westcoast Slant is a new site. We want our faithful readers to know that we have a good to great grasp on the happenings of the NBA. Of course, there’s still 60 plus games to play, so the back-patting and/or razing should be held off until the end of the season.

In the meantime, keep reading and commenting!

East Over West?

Wouldn't you know it. The year I decide to give the Westcoast the much deserved love it has been dying to have with this website, the year after the greatest and deepest western conference in the history of the sport, the season that was supposed to be even deeper and better than last, the Western conference has come out of the gates sputtering. Overall, the West has a losing record 31-36 to the East's 34-29. Egads. What's going on?

Well, the Clippers have sucked. Baron and Camby both have missed time. That one hurts because I was so excited about them. But, I still have hope that they will turn things around, just as soon as Mike Dunleavy decides to let the kids play (Jordan and Gordon please!!!!). In fact, I feel better about them than the Spurs whose weak bench and lack of a third star due to the Manu injury have resulted in San Antonio sucking. You can never count them out, but Tony Parker is playing out of his mind, and the team is 1-3. Portland lost Greg Oden in the early going (though, Joel Przybilla is playing great once again) and Brandon Roy can't shoot (and despite those two amazing shots last night, is at 40 percent). My hopes for Minny and Denver (who look to be getting back on the right track with Mr. Bigshot in town) were also, at least in the early going, a bit in vain. I still stick by my predictions. I think the Clippers can find momentum as Camby gets healthier and more in tune with the team. I think the Spurs will still end up being the Spurs, though a 7th or 8th seed seems more likely now. And, yes, Portland will be boosted by that miracle shot by Roy last night and start to roll. Even without Oden.