The Greatest SEason Ever: Post 2

In my opinion, I feel like the Utah Jazz are getting an upgrade in Al Jefferson and if he lives up to his potential (remember, he’s only 25 years old) this Jazz team could potentially be a Western Conference Finals contender. Carlos Boozer was completely at home in the flex offense, and was probably a better rebounder and passer, but Jefferson is bigger. Out west, size matters. Also, Jefferson has averaged over 20 ppg while shooting close to 50 percent with a bevy of third-string point guards and combo guards running the show in Minnesota over the past three seasons. Now, he’s playing with arguably the best point guard in the Association who loves to pass. And let’s not even get into coaches. Jerry Sloan is easily a top-5 coach. He’s a Hall of Famer. No question Jefferson will benefit from Sloan’s greatness. Jefferson is a certified 20 and 11 and will probably shoot in the high 55-58 percentile this year.

Now, if he can use his size on defense, I think the Jazz have the potential to be better this season than last (as long as injuries don’t bite them too hard). Sure, they lost a lot of wing depth when Portland stole away Wes Matthews, and the Bulls (along with Boozer) swooped up Kyle Korver and Ronnie Brewer.

But the additions of Raja Bell, Gordon Hayward and Jeremy Evans have the potential to offset those losses, if not immediately, then certainly in the future. The hope is also that the maturation process of young guys like CJ Miles and potentially Othyus Jeffers or Ryan Thompson continues.

I get the line of thinking from Utah brass—Hayward is the new Korver, Evans is the new freak athlete, and Bell is the steady, defensive-minded, three-point shooter replacing Matthews. I like the mix. Even if Evans and Hayward are in fact, a year or two away.

Though Bell has only played in 73 games over the past two seasons, he’s maintained his ability to shoot lights out beyond the three-point line (around 43 percent). While he may not be the elite defender he used to be, and he’s certainly not the athletic defender and steals machine that Ronnie Brewer was, Bell is far more of an offensive threat and will hold his own playing scrappy defense sans gambling. With Andrei Kirilenko, Bell and Deron Williams, this Jazz team could be a much improved defensive squad.

Evans has the potential to be something really special, especially in a system that creates easy looks for him. With Bell on the floor, you can play Evans at the three and not worry about a lack of outside shooting. Evans will be free to slash and crash the glass. And he’s an excellent rebounder who is currently tied for the team high with Jefferson thus far in preseason (in 18 less minutes too).

Now, don’t get me wrong, Matthews is a very nice player, but at nearly $7 million per season for the next five, not sure he lives up to that contract. He shot well last year, played solid defense, and learned how to fit in, but is he really $1.2 million better than Trevor Ariza (for that matter, Lamar Odom makes $8 million)? Ariza is at least equal defensively, a far better athlete and pick-pocket, and just as good, if not better, of a spot-up shooter, evidenced by his 41 percent from beyond the arc post all-star break (after Kevin Martin joined the Rockets). And the two are separated in age by a single year, though it should be noted that Ariza has six years in the L to Matthews’ one.

Speaking of Ariza, I think he’s going to have a bounce back season. After the Rockets acquired Martin, Ariza blew up and once again became the ultimate glue guy. Every single statistic except ppg, went up or improved in efficiency. With Chris Paul running the show in New Orleans, David West the clear-cut second banana, and Emeka Okafor providing a relevance in the post, Ariza will have the freedom to roam the range.

He’s going to put up about the same averages, it’s just that everything will be done at a more efficient clip. I think 14 ppg, 7 rpg, 3 assists, 2.2 steals and a block while shooting 47 percent is very realistic.

Lakers Fall, D-Will Rises

Well, I'm pretty sure Kobe Bryant misses Vladimir Radmanovic. Luke Walton can be good. Emphasis on "can." And he certainly understands and executes the triangle more effectively than Vlad Rad. But damn, there's no doubt in my mind that Kobe misses Vladi. Luke can't shoot to save his life. Vlad, as shown by his 8-16 from beyond the arc in two games with the Bobcats, most certainly can.

The Lakeshow shot a stinky 5-19 from three last night (mostly behind Kobe's 1-7) but boy hooie could they have used a streaky 3-point shooter.

Luke Walton is frustrating. In the third quarter, Pau Gasol steals the ball and Luke streaks down the court for an open layup. Mehmut Okur (yeah, the super fast guy on the Jazz) closes in on Luke and tries to swipe at the ball and hits Luke's left arm. Luke misses the gimme and one opportunity. He then steps up to the stripe and bricks both freethrows basically turning a for sure and-one into a turnover. On the defensive end, Lakers get the stop with Paul Milsap airballing straight to Kobe. Kobe brings the ball up and chucks up a semi-contested 20 footer (more on his poor shot selection in a second). Luke hustles down and almost has an offensive rebound that is knocked out of his hands by Ronnie Brewer. Luke takes the ball out, gives it to Gasol, gets it back and curls around and then tries to lob a pass to Pau. The ball is stolen. The Jazz fastbreak. Fisher makes a great play to stop C.J. Miles dribble. Miles passes back to Brewer but Luke makes the hustle play of recovering back on defensive and then knocking the ball out of bounds.

Three consecutive series that end with Luke almost making a 3-point play but coming up with nothing, almost getting an offensive rebound, and then almost making a steal.

As for Kobe, I don't know what happened or what's been said to him since Bynum went down, but he's not looking to pass much at all. He's not moving the ball as much anymore and is instead taking a bunch of contested shots. Little ball movement. A lot of one on one. When he's on, it's brilliant. But when he's taking tough shots and they ain't falling? He needs to start working the ball around.

The Lakers played crap defense last night (the Jazz shot 59 percent from the field and scored 113 points) but it was Kobe's poor shot selection that cost the team the game. He took 33 shots, and add to that 4 other attempts that ended in fouls...that's 37 attempts...three times as many as the next closest Laker (Pau and Odom who shot a combined 15-26).

Mr. Bryant...pass the damn ball. What happened?

Mr. Odom, three straight games and three career rebounding nights. If he can keep this production up, he'll grab 50 boards the next time the Lakers play the Jazz during the last regular season game. Ha.

Speaking of the Jazz, Mr. Deron Williams is blazing hot as stated in the last post. He dropped 31 and 11 on the Lakeshow. Amazing how people still think Chris Paul is so much better.

Thinking BOLD

With extremely deep teams like the Blazers, Lakers, Jazz, and Houston, this season, the second unit, or bench squad, has become nearly as important as the starters.

Teams like the Nuggets, Spurs, Cavs, and Magic have developed benches this year and remain at the top of their divisions due to that added depth. While injury-plagued teams like Houston and the Jazz have hung in the playoff race mainly due to their depth.

On the flipside, good to very good teams like the triple H trio of the Heat, Hawks, and Hornets haven’t been able to take that next step due to their thin benches.

In light of all this, it’s definitely time for some gut checks from certain NBA stars who say they want to win, who say they want to do whatever it takes… Well, it’s time for some NBA teams, namely, NBA coaches, to be BOLD.

There were a few teams that started this bold thinking. Ironically, the team who has a rep for being boring, has taken some of the boldest steps over the past few seasons…and you know what? They’ve won the whole damn thing four times. From mining the wealth of European stars to sitting stars for the entire fourth quarter in potentially winnable games, the Spurs have been that BOLD team.

They also did a little move that has helped make them one of the greatest franchises in league history. That would be bringing Manu Ginobili, a superstar talent, off the bench.

This season, other teams have followed suit.

Exhibit A: the Los Angeles Lakers, who, admittedly, copied the Ginobili experiment and asked Lamar Odom, who had pretty much started every single game of his career, to lead the bench mob.

The result? The Lakers have the best bench in the entire league. Trevor Ariza and Jordan Farmar and Sasha Vujacic along with Odom change the entire pace of the game and play frenetic, fast-paced ball, that aggressively traps and oftentimes fullcourt presses and makes life miserable for the opposition who has to try and adapt to two different styles and basically gets a group of starters playing off the bench.

As a side result to that, the Lakers 7-foot future, Andrew Bynum, is starting to blossom playing alongside all the veterans. Pau Gasol has meshed perfectly with the 21-year-old and Kobe Bryant and Fisher are looking to get him the ball.

Oh yeah, the Lakers sport the best record in the West (35-8). Pretty nifty outcome for thinking bold, wouldn’t you agree?

Exhibit B: the Utah Jazz, who, despite all the injuries to key players have remained in the playoff hunt. They started the season bringing Andrei Kirilenko off the bench, and before Boozer and then Milsap went down with injuries, that little trick was working like a $5,000, well, nicely.

Hopefully, you can see where this post is headed.

Aside from exhibits A & B, there is also the recent Jermaine O’Neal experiment. The Raptors have been fortunate enough to have Andrea Bargnani absolutely balling (20 points and 7 boards on 50 percent shooting in January) and have the luxury, much like the Lakers and pre-injured Jazz, of bringing a known star talent off the bench. While O’Neal’s star has faded considerably, so far, the bold move is paying off. The team has since rattled off a couple in a row (yeah, the Kings and Bulls, but still).

As for some of the other teams in the league, they have not been thinking boldly, and have clung to the tried and tested and the old school ways of coaching.

Maybe it’s Terry Porter and Michael Curry’s coaching styles that are preventing them from seeing the larger picture. Maybe it’s the fact that they are first year coaches (well, fairly new to coaching in Porter’s case) with big shoes to fill. Maybe it’s the high profile star power that they are dealing with. Or perhaps it's a combination of all of these things

Whatever it is, the obvious solution is staring them in the face and they are refusing to go with it.

I’ve been talking about bringing Nash off the bench for quite some time now. Check here for that blog.

Recapping, it gives the Suns two strong units. Nash, if playing his style of basketball (run and gun) can turn anyone into a viable contributor. But force him to slow down and play with Shaq? Then we have his highest turnover percentage of his career (worse than his rookie campaign) and his lowest FG percentage in four years.

Starting J Rich, Amare, Shaq, Grant Hill and Barbosa or even Dee Brown, would allow J-Rich to have a more useful impact in the offense. Shaq has won four titles in his career, and they’ve all been playing with a great wing player. Now, this Shaq isn’t close to 3peat Shaq, nor is he quite Heat Shaq, and, J-Rich ain’t even a poor-man’s Kobe, but neither is he a catch and shoot, fourth option. With Shaq and J-Rich, the duo-dynamic is there.

With this lineup, Grant Hill can run point forward and be in charge of the main ball handling duties. Besides, in a half court offense that focuses around Shaq, all a team simply needs is a point guard who can dump the ball into the post and shoot the long ball (think Scott Skiles, think old Jason Williams, think Ron Harper, think Brian Shaw). Leandro Barbosa might not be as smart a player as any of them, but he’s definitely at least as talented.

With the starters set, Shaq accumulating fouls on the defense early, battering the bigs, abusing the post, with about 3 minutes left in the first quarter, that’s when the Suns will unleash the hounds. A second unit of Nash, Barbosa, Barnes, Amundson and Amare would be devastatingly fast and explosive.

Bringing a two-time MVP off the bench, now that’s thinking BOLDLY.

Which brings me to another former MVP who should be coming off the bench. How many conference finals have the Detroit Pistons been to the past six years?

Six.

They accomplished this feat based not on any superstar talent (though, Mr. Billups is proving that he’s definitely a working man’s superstar—think a point guard’s version of Brandon Roy). Instead, they built a strong team unit, that knew how to play well together—very well, excellent in fact.

Ben Wallace/Antonio McDyess, Rip Hamilton, Rasheed Wallace, Tayshaun Prince, and Chauncey Billups.

Sure, over the years, they’ve replaced core guys here and there. The first being Wallace. The team quickly filled his hole with McDyess and Jason Maxiell. Despite the change, they didn’t really miss a beat.

This season, wisely predicting the emergence of Rodney Stuckey after easing him into the system last year, they sent Chauncey packing to “renew” the point guard position like they did with the center/power forward spot two years before.

But instead of continuing this natural cycle, they’ve tried to force a square peg into a round hole.

AI’s the Detroit’s Yoko Ono.

No disrespect to the Answer, but the question is where should he play, and the solution is on the second unit.

A superstar coming off the bench? Yes, think Ginobili.

But Ginobili is no Allen Iverson…right from both sides of that argument.

So, instead, let’s look at this in a different light. Do you remember way back in 2001, back when Iverson was the face of the Sixers franchise? Do you remember who the other faces he was playing with were?

Nope, neither does anyone else. The point is, he won his MVP that year and took that team to the finals with a group of nobodies (sorry Mutumbo).

If AI is options 1,2 and 3 on a second unit featuring Amir Johnson, Aaron Afflalo and Jason Maxiell, irregardless of the noticeable regression in his game this season, he will kill second units like it’s 2001. He’s still AI. He’s still a top 10 shooting guard.

On this Detroit team, his rightful place is to lead a second unit squad. His place is to kill second units.

He’s not here to change the flow of that tight as hip hugger jeans’ camaraderie and team-first approach. Let’s face it, try as he might, AI isn’t a team-oriented guy. He’s a great, great teammate, but not a team player. There’s no team in AI.

Bringing Iverson off the bench would not only keep that first unit flowing like they have for the past six years, but it would also allow the youngins to develop into the system. Look how beautifully Stuckey has progressed in this model.

AI is most likely only a one year rental. Why has Curry allowed him to muck up the system? Let's be real. Iverson's got zero rings. He got close, but he’s never won anything. The Pistons system got them a ring and another finals appearance.

In Phoenix, the newbie, Shaq, is the one with the rings. Despite it previously being Nash’s team, going with the ring bearer isn’t a bad idea.

But in both cases, BOLD thinking needs to be adopted. Bringing both of the former MVP guards off the bench will boost both squads into the elite class, giving them both elite starting units and elite benches.

Remember, not everyone can be Boston and mesh superstar talent together.

The Lakers have been bold this year, and they have a huge depth advantage as well as the best bench in the league and are poised to represent the West in the Finals once again.

The Spurs have been bold for years and have four rings to show for it.

And, there’s no BOLDER statement than winning a ring…

Been Wrong. Been Right.

So far so good on most of WCS' pre-season predictions.

Though, for all the ones we nailed on the head, there’s also been a few where we’ve hit our collective thumb instead.

Sure, there were some gimme calls. The Lakers and Thunder for example. Everybody got those. NASCAR fanatics could've called those. It's not brain surgery to predict the Lakers would rock and the Thunder would hit rock bottom.

Houston’s had injuries, played ugly, but still find themselves at the top of the West. Ditto for Phoenix. Ditto for Utah. All at 11-7. Though, of the three, Utah is still the most promising. They’ve compiled their record without the services of their best player (Deron Williams) while dealing with injuries up and down their lineup (Kirilenko, Boozer, Williams, Brewer, etc.)

And, like Old Faithful, the freaking Spurs have been the freaking Spurs.

Here's a link to all those predictions if you missed them the first time around.

http://westcoastslant.blogspot.com/2008/10/how-west-was-won.html

As for the miscues…

I went against conventional wisdom and believed that the Clippers could eek their way into the first round of the playoffs. I thought Ricky Davis would have a great year. I thought Kaman and Camby would form a formidable duo. I thought the team defense would be one of the best in the league…yeah, well, I should’ve known. Never in my wildest dreams did I imagine them trading for Zach Randolph. I even joked about Dallas doing that trade in desperation. Well, these are desperate times in Clipper land, and that’s saying a lot. The main problem is simple. It’s talent (Baron) versus ideology (Dunleavy), and so far, it’s produced a 3-13 record. Yuck.

I also misfired on Minnesota. I didn’t really think they had a shot to make the playoffs, but I did believe they would be a much improved team. I listed seven factors that were necessary for the Wolves to make the postseason. Here’s the ones they’ve got semi-right. Al Jefferson is close to averaging 23 and 11 (22 and 10), but, in spite of a slightly better team defense, Big Al’s D isn’t close to where it needs to be. Half a factor fulfilled there. The Clippers, have, well, been the Clippers. 1.5 factors fulfilled. Kevin Love is kinda a legit NBA player, which makes it half a factor bringing our total to 2 factors fulfilled. And the ones that have gone wrong? Dallas has not fallen off a cliff—J Kidd’s actually playing pretty well (nowhere near Devin Harris however). Denver has risen to scary playoff opponent (more on this in a sec). Randy Foye had one transcendent game, and has otherwise been a huge disappointment. Corey McCants never happened (Brewer is now out for the season, which, with the infusion of Rodney Carney into the mix, might actually help the team’s offense). In the end 2 of 7 ain’t going to get it done. And it hasn’t. Minny’s currently sitting at 4-11.

I give myself a little bit of a break on the Denver prediction (still somewhat of a miscue) because I didn’t know they were going to trade for Chauncey. Mr. Big Shot has been a revelation for the team, and now, if everyone stays healthy (I’m talking to you Nene and you Kenyon Martin) this team could be very scary come playoff time. Their defense got better in spite of losing Camby (that’s thanks to the AI/Billups tradeoff) and they even have a decent bench. Once J.R. Smith smoothes things out with Karl, bringing Chris Anderson, Smith, an underrated Anthony Carter, Renaldo Balkman and Linas Kleiza off the pine is a definite asset.

Okay. So we've established some of the predictions I reached on. Some of the ones where a lot of things had to go right for them to be, well, right. As for the things I actually did get right? There are two big thoughts that have been money when most everyone else was saying differently.

The Hornets look dreadful. Their defense has been awful. Their current rating is worse than the league average. While Chris Paul has been stellar, David West, Peja Stojakovic, and Tyson Chandler are all playing worse than they did last season. And the bench? The bench has killed the team. Especially the lack of a point guard and any semblance of a decent bigman. If you added up the PERs of Hilton Armstrong, Sean Marks, Melvin Ely, and Mike James, their collective PER is 8 points less than Chris Paul’s PER (22.8 to 30.9). Pathetic. But, the bench is and will continue to be their problem. Using Devin Brown at the point guard position is not a long term nor short term solution. James Posey has played big, but his presence has made Julian Wright relatively, well, irrelevant.

And finally, my babies. I put them all the way into the top four in the West, and they’ve played a smidge better than that. That’s the Portland Trailblazers. While everyone was off riding the Hornets’ stinger, we here at Westcoast Slant believed that the Blazers, with an excellent, top-of-the-line coach (Nate McMillan, remember what he did with that Seattle team a few years back) and a huge host of talented, energetic, youth (as in 10 deep) would be a big player in the West. Atop the Northwest division (tied with Denver) Aldridge and Roy have been playing well (Roy got player of the week honors), the rooks, Batum, Fernandez and Oden have been better-than-expected to great, and Joel Przybilla has been out-of-this-world. Oh, and the bench is one of the best in the biz.

The reason for this post, is because Westcoast Slant is a new site. We want our faithful readers to know that we have a good to great grasp on the happenings of the NBA. Of course, there’s still 60 plus games to play, so the back-patting and/or razing should be held off until the end of the season.

In the meantime, keep reading and commenting!