Thoughts on Opening Night

Obviously the highlight game, the one everyone was looking forward to (my wife watched it…she’s a Celtics fan, though is torn because she despises Shaq), was the Heat vs. the Celtics. And, while it got off to a rocky start for the Heat, all it took was for Lebron to grab control of the game and almost single-handedly pull the Heat to within one triple of tying the game with a minute to go in the fourth quarter.

The fact the Celtics have been playing together for a couple of seasons was enough to push them ahead. While I think the Heat will eventually be a formidable team (as long as the big three stay healthy) I can’t help but point out that the Cs were integrating new, large pieces into their style of play as well. Love Rajon Rondo's 17 assists and 3 turnovers, but he still can't shoot 2-9, which has got to be somewhat disappointing for Celtics' fans hoping to see Rondo take his game to superstar levels. If he continues with that busted jumper, his ceiling is all-star occasional game-changer. If he could hit threes? Top three point guard easily.

On a side note, watch out for Jermaine O’Neal who is really in an ideal situation to have a helluva year—efficiency-wise at the very least. He’ll get to split time with Shaq, Glen Davis and Kevin Garnett, so he won’t be exposed to 30-plus minutes of banging down low every night. The dude is only 32 and had an underrated season last year with Miami (though all anybody remembers is his horrific playoffs). While he can’t dominate with size like Shaq, and he’s not the beast of a defender that Kendrick Perkins is, overall, JO is definitely the Cs best all-around center.

As for the Heat, they’ll be fine, though 72 wins never seemed so far away. And they are going to struggle mightily against teams with big centers.

Tuesday, the Heat tallied 17 turnovers to only 15 assists. Bosh had 8 points and 8 boards on 3-11 shooting, while Wade shot 4-16 with 6 assists and 6 turnovers. Lebron had 31 points and 3 assists, but turned the ball over 8 times. Cleaning up the turnovers will come with familiarity.

Another side note: while it's been said that the Heat will struggle to guard big centers, most notably Shaq and Dwight Howard, is it completely insane of me to think that Lebron should get some time covering Howard? Just a thought. Both are freak athletes, and while Bron gives up a couple of inches, he might actually weigh more than Howard. Of course, you don't want your best player getting in foul trouble, but he's never had that problem before. Besides, it wouldn't be for the whole game, but, I'm thinking they might have to go with that...unless Jamaal Magloire, Big Z and Joel Anthony are going to unload all 18 of their fouls on Howard.

That Houston tandem of Kevin Martin and Aaron Brooks is going to be a nightmare matchup. Both have slight frames, and therefore struggle defensively. But with Yao an intimidating presence in the key, one that can foul with abandon thanks to his strict 24-minute time limit, Martin and Brooks’ defensive liabilities will be masked to a great extent. That is the Yao effect.

For the Lakers, Pau Gasol has suddenly become the man on the team with Kobe working back from injury though, it’s hard to say ‘working back’, then read Kobe’s 27, 5, and 7 statline. Matter of fact, it’s hard to say Pau is the man when it was obvious he struggled a bit taking so many shots. Yao’s size had a lot to do with that, but Pau also settled for 8 jumpers outside the key. He hit one. It’s the first game and the first time Pau has been the go-to option on the Lakers, so he’ll improve. In fact, the broken play where he picked up Kobe’s fumbled drive and scored was the second biggest play of the game.

If Shannon Brown can continue to shoot like that? Sasha Vujacic won’t see the floor, which means his stock will continue to plummet, meaning when he becomes a free agent at the end of next June, the offers will be minimal. All that to say that the soon-to-be Mr. Sharapova might need to borrow from his wife-to-be in order to pay for that $250,000 rock he bought her. By the way, Shannon is leading the league in PER at this moment in time.

Bryant played extremely well on the offensive end, especially in light of the fact he’s in the latter stages of his rehab on his surgically repaired knee. But, his defense was atrocious. Martin and Lee both blew right by him like he was a traffic cone on several plays. One wonders if his lateral quickness will come back this season.

If it doesn’t, Kobe’ll be better at covering small forwards. And if Brown continues his stellar play and becomes the designated 2-stopper, than we might begin seeing that Brown, Blake, Kobe wing combo that finished Tuesday’s game a lot more often. Which means that Ron Artest is going to lose minutes. Wonder how that’s going to sit with him?

One last point and why I love Kobe so much. Coming out of a Lakers timeout at the 2:48 mark, the Lakers are up 103-97. Kobe has a chat with Steve Blake, moving his arm in a circle like he's diagramming a play. He’s teaching, or at least relaying to Blake the holes in the Houston defense that he sees.

Fast-forward to the end of the game, Lakers down by one point with 20 seconds left on the game clock, Kobe drives to the hoop, stutters, sucks the defense in, and then kicks it out. While it almost looks like a pass to Gasol, who pulls his hands away at the last second, the ball sails perfectly into Blake's hands as he is circling back up to the top of the key, finding him in rhythm.

The newbie, who along with Theo Ratliff and Matt Barnes had to watch the rest of his teammates collect some gaudy jewelry before the game, knocks down the game-winning 3 pointer.

Now, tell me how that’s not making your teammates better…

The Greatest SEason Ever: Post 2

In my opinion, I feel like the Utah Jazz are getting an upgrade in Al Jefferson and if he lives up to his potential (remember, he’s only 25 years old) this Jazz team could potentially be a Western Conference Finals contender. Carlos Boozer was completely at home in the flex offense, and was probably a better rebounder and passer, but Jefferson is bigger. Out west, size matters. Also, Jefferson has averaged over 20 ppg while shooting close to 50 percent with a bevy of third-string point guards and combo guards running the show in Minnesota over the past three seasons. Now, he’s playing with arguably the best point guard in the Association who loves to pass. And let’s not even get into coaches. Jerry Sloan is easily a top-5 coach. He’s a Hall of Famer. No question Jefferson will benefit from Sloan’s greatness. Jefferson is a certified 20 and 11 and will probably shoot in the high 55-58 percentile this year.

Now, if he can use his size on defense, I think the Jazz have the potential to be better this season than last (as long as injuries don’t bite them too hard). Sure, they lost a lot of wing depth when Portland stole away Wes Matthews, and the Bulls (along with Boozer) swooped up Kyle Korver and Ronnie Brewer.

But the additions of Raja Bell, Gordon Hayward and Jeremy Evans have the potential to offset those losses, if not immediately, then certainly in the future. The hope is also that the maturation process of young guys like CJ Miles and potentially Othyus Jeffers or Ryan Thompson continues.

I get the line of thinking from Utah brass—Hayward is the new Korver, Evans is the new freak athlete, and Bell is the steady, defensive-minded, three-point shooter replacing Matthews. I like the mix. Even if Evans and Hayward are in fact, a year or two away.

Though Bell has only played in 73 games over the past two seasons, he’s maintained his ability to shoot lights out beyond the three-point line (around 43 percent). While he may not be the elite defender he used to be, and he’s certainly not the athletic defender and steals machine that Ronnie Brewer was, Bell is far more of an offensive threat and will hold his own playing scrappy defense sans gambling. With Andrei Kirilenko, Bell and Deron Williams, this Jazz team could be a much improved defensive squad.

Evans has the potential to be something really special, especially in a system that creates easy looks for him. With Bell on the floor, you can play Evans at the three and not worry about a lack of outside shooting. Evans will be free to slash and crash the glass. And he’s an excellent rebounder who is currently tied for the team high with Jefferson thus far in preseason (in 18 less minutes too).

Now, don’t get me wrong, Matthews is a very nice player, but at nearly $7 million per season for the next five, not sure he lives up to that contract. He shot well last year, played solid defense, and learned how to fit in, but is he really $1.2 million better than Trevor Ariza (for that matter, Lamar Odom makes $8 million)? Ariza is at least equal defensively, a far better athlete and pick-pocket, and just as good, if not better, of a spot-up shooter, evidenced by his 41 percent from beyond the arc post all-star break (after Kevin Martin joined the Rockets). And the two are separated in age by a single year, though it should be noted that Ariza has six years in the L to Matthews’ one.

Speaking of Ariza, I think he’s going to have a bounce back season. After the Rockets acquired Martin, Ariza blew up and once again became the ultimate glue guy. Every single statistic except ppg, went up or improved in efficiency. With Chris Paul running the show in New Orleans, David West the clear-cut second banana, and Emeka Okafor providing a relevance in the post, Ariza will have the freedom to roam the range.

He’s going to put up about the same averages, it’s just that everything will be done at a more efficient clip. I think 14 ppg, 7 rpg, 3 assists, 2.2 steals and a block while shooting 47 percent is very realistic.

Season Previews 09-10 Edition "Kings"

We are back from a month and a half long hiatus.

With less then a month until training camp breaks, thought it would be a good time to start our annual season preview. There are quite a few “ifs” that could make or break any of the 30 teams this upcoming 09-10 season. Getting away from the formula of those websites that break down teams and rank them in some order that they then try to justify (like we admittedly tried to do last year), we thought it would be nice to try something outside of what has become commonplace in the sports writing/blogosphere.

Here at Westcoast Slant, we’ll simply be breaking down each team and giving realistic outcomes without any sort of finishing order or power ranking, etc. While it may not be as controversial as a ranking system, it will undoubtedly be more insightful for those who are interested in the game of basketball and not the dark art of fortune telling. So, of course we’ll begin out west with teams that are pretty much set with their rosters going into training camp.

Sacramento Kings

Let’s be honest, expectations for this team are not high and many pundits believe that they will be the worst team in the entire Association next season. While it’s easy to label a team that only won 17 games last year as next year’s winners of the worst team award, give me any season and we’ll see teams projected to do poorly, actually do okay. I’m not saying the Kings will make the playoffs, but recent history teaches us not to bet against promising youth. Many thought the Oklahoma City Thunder were going to be historically bad, especially after their putrid start, but their young players developed as the season went along and the team went 10-16 after the All-Star break after having gone 13-43 before it. Check out this blog for another example of a young team defying expectations and the ensuing enjoyment that fans got out of it.

With that in mind, these “ifs” if answered positively, could mean 25-30 wins for the Kings, doubling last season’s effort.

The first if is obviously true for every team we’ll be covering over the next couple of weeks. If the Kings stay healthy, they could make a run at 30 wins. This is no easy feat considering the Kings franchise player, Kevin Martin, has only averaged 61 games over his five seasons. Last year he played in 51. The year before? 61. So, it’s not like his injury last season was the exception to the rule. Kid misses games plain and simple. If Martin can stay healthy, he could average 25 points a game and do so in the K-Mart way, which is super-duper efficiently.

Along those lines, there’s the whole if Tyreke Evans and K-Mart can coexist question. For what it’s worth, I like the pairing. Yes, Evans is untested as a point guard, but if nothing else, the Kings will be shooting a lot of free throws next year since Evans and Martin prolifically get to the charity stripe. Also, Martin averaged 20 a game playing with gunners Mike Bibby and Ron Artest (on less shots) which only proves that he finds ways to score no matter how many shots he gets. It’s not like Evans will be jacking up 30 shots a game (at least, I hope not). There’s plenty of shots to go around on this squad. Evans and Martin, if healthy, will make a dynamic backcourt that has the ability to average 45 points a game.

And don’t count out a small ball lineup that will feature Martin at the three, Evans at the two and newly acquired Sergio Rodriguez leading the break.

While this offseason depressingly saw the Maloofs cutting payroll like a paper shredder, there are two things that Kings fans should be excited about for the 09-10 season. First, the roster is filled with talented youth. Outside of the expiring contract known as Kenny Thomas (K-9), the Kings do not feature anyone over the age of 30. Their current star player (Martin) is 26 and their star of the future (Evans) is 19. Jason Thompson is 23 and Spencer Hawes is 21. And as far as K-9 is concerned, there’s a slim possibility he nets some moderate talent being that he’s one of the bigger expirings this year.

The second thing to be excited about is Paul Westphal. For all the haters out there (Tom Ziller), Westphal has a 267-159 coaching record, for a .626 win percentage. A number that is only bettered by four other current coaches with more than a season under their belts (Rambo doesn’t even have half a season so he doesn’t count). The coaches are Phil Jackson, Greg Popovich, Mike Brown, and Stan Van Gundy.

While I’m not trying to put Westphal in their company, though, I guess that’s exactly what I’ve done, I am saying that he’s had success as a coach. Big time success in fact, success that included a trip to the finals, something Mike D has only dreamed about.

And Westphal knows how to run an offense. He was like the OG D’Antoni back in the 90s. During his three full seasons guiding the Suns, Phoenix led the league in offensive rating the first two seasons, and finished third in his last. They also averaged 59 wins during that span.

Evans could grow into a Kevin Johnson type player. Martin is already a superior offensive player to my all-time favorite Sun, Thunder Dan Majerle (though, nowhere close defensively) but I won’t even try to say that Thompson is a poor man’s Barkley because, well, that would be a stretch even my imagination can’t justify. But there are some similarities. Andres Nocioni can shoot. Spencer Hawes can shoot. Francisco Garcia can shoot. Omri Casspi could shoot in Europe. There’s no reason outside of bad chemistry or disgruntled players that this squad won’t be effective in a Westphal-run system.

Looking at that lineup, the Kings have some intriguing pieces that just need time to grow up together. However, there is the potential problem of lack of playing time, even on this, a most likely lottery-bound team, due to the redundancy in the current makeup of the roster.

Evans is slotted to be a one, but the Kings committed big money and years to Beno Udrih last summer—$32 million over five years to be exact. They also acquired Rodriguez this offseason and neither Rodriguez nor Udrih can legitimately play the two. Where and if Udrih plays will be a big question especially considering his latest injury that is estimated to put him out until right before training camp. He’s not really a point guard/point guard, though he did average six assists the last 16 games of the season. His high-end midrange game is not as effective or as valuable with Evans on board, and if the Kings decide to run next year, Sergio’s game is tailor-made for that style.

Further complicating matters is the logjam at small forward where Francisco Garcia, Andres Nocioni, recently drafted Omri Casspi and the as-of-yet disappointing Donte Green all look to play. Garcia can and will play some shooting guard, and Casspi is supposedly versatile enough to play three or four different positions, but he’s never played in the NBA, so I won’t jump to any conclusions. He’ll get some burn because of his scrappiness and work ethic and overall energy, but it’s unlikely he’ll be a major contributor this year due to the plethora of small forward options.

Assuming Evans is able to quickly adapt to NBA-life, the next biggest improvement to the team will most likely come from the bigs. Thompson must build on his solid rookie campaign. People made a fuss about his advanced age coming out of college, but he’s still only 23. There’s plenty of room for growth—polishing up that raw offensive game and learning the nuances of defense being most important. Hawes is another who will need to continue to develop.

Surprisingly, the man who could have the biggest impact (no pun intended) on the team is the injury-prone Sean May who could be pushing both Thompson and Hawes for minutes by midseason. May could be the poster child for John Hollinger’s PER system and why I use it as one of several tools for evaluation, but refuse to place too much importance on its findings. For me, it’s more like a guidebook. Two years ago, May’s per-40 minute numbers looked very impressive, 20, 11 and three assists with a 19.22 PER. But injuries, weight issues and reality have proven May to thus far be considered a bust. He’s played all of 82 games in four seasons. Seeing that he’s only 25, there’s every possibility that he could have another stellar year playing as Thompson and Hawes’ backup without the pressure of a starting role. Of course, there’s also the likelihood that he’ll miss 60 games.

Overall, Kings fans shouldn’t be too depressed. Come the trade deadline, the Kings will be a major player with K-9, even if they prove to be just window shopping. Furthermore, the additions of Westphal, running point guards Rodriguez and Evans and the potential of May combined with the continued development of Hawes, Thompson and Martin mean that the Kings will be fun to watch and will be a lot tougher than a year ago.

If things fall the right way (which would pretty much be the opposite of last year), the Kings will be quite a bit better than people think, though, playoffs are a pipedream at best.