Season Previews 09-10 Edition "Kings"

We are back from a month and a half long hiatus.

With less then a month until training camp breaks, thought it would be a good time to start our annual season preview. There are quite a few “ifs” that could make or break any of the 30 teams this upcoming 09-10 season. Getting away from the formula of those websites that break down teams and rank them in some order that they then try to justify (like we admittedly tried to do last year), we thought it would be nice to try something outside of what has become commonplace in the sports writing/blogosphere.

Here at Westcoast Slant, we’ll simply be breaking down each team and giving realistic outcomes without any sort of finishing order or power ranking, etc. While it may not be as controversial as a ranking system, it will undoubtedly be more insightful for those who are interested in the game of basketball and not the dark art of fortune telling. So, of course we’ll begin out west with teams that are pretty much set with their rosters going into training camp.

Sacramento Kings

Let’s be honest, expectations for this team are not high and many pundits believe that they will be the worst team in the entire Association next season. While it’s easy to label a team that only won 17 games last year as next year’s winners of the worst team award, give me any season and we’ll see teams projected to do poorly, actually do okay. I’m not saying the Kings will make the playoffs, but recent history teaches us not to bet against promising youth. Many thought the Oklahoma City Thunder were going to be historically bad, especially after their putrid start, but their young players developed as the season went along and the team went 10-16 after the All-Star break after having gone 13-43 before it. Check out this blog for another example of a young team defying expectations and the ensuing enjoyment that fans got out of it.

With that in mind, these “ifs” if answered positively, could mean 25-30 wins for the Kings, doubling last season’s effort.

The first if is obviously true for every team we’ll be covering over the next couple of weeks. If the Kings stay healthy, they could make a run at 30 wins. This is no easy feat considering the Kings franchise player, Kevin Martin, has only averaged 61 games over his five seasons. Last year he played in 51. The year before? 61. So, it’s not like his injury last season was the exception to the rule. Kid misses games plain and simple. If Martin can stay healthy, he could average 25 points a game and do so in the K-Mart way, which is super-duper efficiently.

Along those lines, there’s the whole if Tyreke Evans and K-Mart can coexist question. For what it’s worth, I like the pairing. Yes, Evans is untested as a point guard, but if nothing else, the Kings will be shooting a lot of free throws next year since Evans and Martin prolifically get to the charity stripe. Also, Martin averaged 20 a game playing with gunners Mike Bibby and Ron Artest (on less shots) which only proves that he finds ways to score no matter how many shots he gets. It’s not like Evans will be jacking up 30 shots a game (at least, I hope not). There’s plenty of shots to go around on this squad. Evans and Martin, if healthy, will make a dynamic backcourt that has the ability to average 45 points a game.

And don’t count out a small ball lineup that will feature Martin at the three, Evans at the two and newly acquired Sergio Rodriguez leading the break.

While this offseason depressingly saw the Maloofs cutting payroll like a paper shredder, there are two things that Kings fans should be excited about for the 09-10 season. First, the roster is filled with talented youth. Outside of the expiring contract known as Kenny Thomas (K-9), the Kings do not feature anyone over the age of 30. Their current star player (Martin) is 26 and their star of the future (Evans) is 19. Jason Thompson is 23 and Spencer Hawes is 21. And as far as K-9 is concerned, there’s a slim possibility he nets some moderate talent being that he’s one of the bigger expirings this year.

The second thing to be excited about is Paul Westphal. For all the haters out there (Tom Ziller), Westphal has a 267-159 coaching record, for a .626 win percentage. A number that is only bettered by four other current coaches with more than a season under their belts (Rambo doesn’t even have half a season so he doesn’t count). The coaches are Phil Jackson, Greg Popovich, Mike Brown, and Stan Van Gundy.

While I’m not trying to put Westphal in their company, though, I guess that’s exactly what I’ve done, I am saying that he’s had success as a coach. Big time success in fact, success that included a trip to the finals, something Mike D has only dreamed about.

And Westphal knows how to run an offense. He was like the OG D’Antoni back in the 90s. During his three full seasons guiding the Suns, Phoenix led the league in offensive rating the first two seasons, and finished third in his last. They also averaged 59 wins during that span.

Evans could grow into a Kevin Johnson type player. Martin is already a superior offensive player to my all-time favorite Sun, Thunder Dan Majerle (though, nowhere close defensively) but I won’t even try to say that Thompson is a poor man’s Barkley because, well, that would be a stretch even my imagination can’t justify. But there are some similarities. Andres Nocioni can shoot. Spencer Hawes can shoot. Francisco Garcia can shoot. Omri Casspi could shoot in Europe. There’s no reason outside of bad chemistry or disgruntled players that this squad won’t be effective in a Westphal-run system.

Looking at that lineup, the Kings have some intriguing pieces that just need time to grow up together. However, there is the potential problem of lack of playing time, even on this, a most likely lottery-bound team, due to the redundancy in the current makeup of the roster.

Evans is slotted to be a one, but the Kings committed big money and years to Beno Udrih last summer—$32 million over five years to be exact. They also acquired Rodriguez this offseason and neither Rodriguez nor Udrih can legitimately play the two. Where and if Udrih plays will be a big question especially considering his latest injury that is estimated to put him out until right before training camp. He’s not really a point guard/point guard, though he did average six assists the last 16 games of the season. His high-end midrange game is not as effective or as valuable with Evans on board, and if the Kings decide to run next year, Sergio’s game is tailor-made for that style.

Further complicating matters is the logjam at small forward where Francisco Garcia, Andres Nocioni, recently drafted Omri Casspi and the as-of-yet disappointing Donte Green all look to play. Garcia can and will play some shooting guard, and Casspi is supposedly versatile enough to play three or four different positions, but he’s never played in the NBA, so I won’t jump to any conclusions. He’ll get some burn because of his scrappiness and work ethic and overall energy, but it’s unlikely he’ll be a major contributor this year due to the plethora of small forward options.

Assuming Evans is able to quickly adapt to NBA-life, the next biggest improvement to the team will most likely come from the bigs. Thompson must build on his solid rookie campaign. People made a fuss about his advanced age coming out of college, but he’s still only 23. There’s plenty of room for growth—polishing up that raw offensive game and learning the nuances of defense being most important. Hawes is another who will need to continue to develop.

Surprisingly, the man who could have the biggest impact (no pun intended) on the team is the injury-prone Sean May who could be pushing both Thompson and Hawes for minutes by midseason. May could be the poster child for John Hollinger’s PER system and why I use it as one of several tools for evaluation, but refuse to place too much importance on its findings. For me, it’s more like a guidebook. Two years ago, May’s per-40 minute numbers looked very impressive, 20, 11 and three assists with a 19.22 PER. But injuries, weight issues and reality have proven May to thus far be considered a bust. He’s played all of 82 games in four seasons. Seeing that he’s only 25, there’s every possibility that he could have another stellar year playing as Thompson and Hawes’ backup without the pressure of a starting role. Of course, there’s also the likelihood that he’ll miss 60 games.

Overall, Kings fans shouldn’t be too depressed. Come the trade deadline, the Kings will be a major player with K-9, even if they prove to be just window shopping. Furthermore, the additions of Westphal, running point guards Rodriguez and Evans and the potential of May combined with the continued development of Hawes, Thompson and Martin mean that the Kings will be fun to watch and will be a lot tougher than a year ago.

If things fall the right way (which would pretty much be the opposite of last year), the Kings will be quite a bit better than people think, though, playoffs are a pipedream at best.

Master Deceiver

I bit. I believed the dude. I’ve hated on him for quite some time, but this year, I said, “Jordan, you are going to be as unbiased as you possibly can be in your writing, and you are going to take the dude at his word.”

Well, Amare and Shaq came up with Amare’s new nickname, Sun Tzu, and, you know what? He’s lived up to that name perfectly. Amare has used deception, or, more blatantly, lies, to try and make me believe that he has become something that he is not. Here are some examples of his art of war…

"I want to be Ron Artest,” he said all the way back in September. “I want to be that guy you fear when you see him guarding you."

"My goal is to become a phenomenal defensive player,'' he said in November. "That's my goal, to be a phenomenal defensive player night in, night out, no nights off. And ultimately to win a championship.'

So far, the Suns are 21st in points allowed, 24th in defensive rating and 22nd in defensive rebounding. This from a team who with Shawn Marion, sported the best offense (SSOL) last year while also maintaining a ranking of 16th in defensive rating.

And speaking of D’Antoni’s offense…

"I couldn't be more ecstatic about the decision,” he said in September about the hiring of Terry Porter and the leaving of Mike D’Antoni. “[Terry Porter] is very organized. He knows what it takes to win. He wants to be the champion. That falls into the category of the Stoudemire brand and also the Phoenix Suns brand. We want to be champions, whatever it takes to do it."

"A lot of defensive drills,'' he said of his coach’s practices at the beginning of November. "We're going over the different tactics of defense. It's very important from my standpoint, being a young player. I never really had long practices on defense. It was never really forced. We talked about it, but as far as practicing it and really going through the preparation, it is the first of my career.''

Just last week, that tune has hit a sour note. He’s openly been questioning Porter’s coaching. After getting beat down by the Lakers in their first meeting two weeks ago, he said the Lakers "were fluid, flowing,” and added, “I remember when we looked like that."

So now, he misses his old style of play after he threw D'Antoni under the bus with his "this is hte first time I've ever been taught how to play defense..." quotes. Throwing former teammates and coaches under the bus while complaining and never taking any blame...Sounds very…uh, Shaq-like.

Way back in September, Sun Tzu oozed enthusiasm, and yes, quite a bit of cockiness as well. "Expectations are higher than they've ever been. As I improve and I get better, we get better. I have no problem putting the total weight and everything we have on my shoulders. If we lose, I have no problem taking that burden. If we win, just make sure you guys give props where props are due. We're ready."

At the end of November and into December, his enthusiasm has lost all of its shine instead weathering down to a harsh, loud glare.

He’s suddenly “absolutely” looking at free agency in 2010. "As a player,” he said, “You should look at the teams you might want to play for. The city you may want to live in. The system you may want to play in. The economy. The cost of living. Everything. It's about what's best for you."

Always what’s best for himself…

“Right now,” Sun Tzu said, “I’m a little frustrated."

Well, he should be. Despite being a freak of nature athlete, Stoudemire is 23rd in the league in rebounding with a paltry 8.3 per contest. He’s sitting behind his own teammate Shaq, who plays 11 minutes less then him; Andrew Bynum and Drew Gooden who both play nearly 8 minutes less; and David Lee who averages 2 more boards but plays nearly 5 minutes less.

Spin his per 48-minute rebounding numbers and he comes in at 68th in the entire league. While I don’t put too much stock in per-48 minute numbers (because, they aren’t real) any big man who thinks of himself as a superstar can in no way shape or form average in any stat form, less boards than Darko Milicic (59th) and Ryan Anderson (63). Or maybe that’s why he gave up his nickname, STAT, cuz he couldn’t live up to it.

I read an article
(http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/sports/articles/2008/12/09/20081209suns1209.html) that tries to make it sound like Amare’s very body is the reason for his inability to rebound. Ha Ha. He’s blamed everyone from his former coach to his present coach’s style, to the lack of another big man, to, now, finally, his small frame…

You telling me that Dirk Nowitzki and Pau Gasol are stronger and more athletic than Tzu? Or that all 6-foot 5-inches of Chuck Hayes who averages half of Amare’s rebounding in less than half the time (4.4 boards in 15 minutes) is better equipped to rebound despite being 4-5 inches shorter? Or that David Lee’s body is more blessed.

Dude…just man up and get the rebound.

As it stands now, Suns Fu has utilized his new name quite well. He's mastered the art of deception...of deceiving himself.

You know, that new haircut he’s sporting got me thinking about who he looks like. And then it hit me. To borrow a line from the always eloquent Mr. T,

“I pity the Foo…”

Walsh Should be Punished not Praised

Okay, I get the fact that over the past few years (last year especially) the media constantly berated and destroyed the New York Knicks organization over and over and over and over and over…ad nauseam. This fact cannot be denied, nor will I try to.

But glorifying Donnie Walsh for trading away his two top scorers on a winning ball club, for a malcontent who hadn’t played in two weeks (Al Harrington, who, even when he’s good, isn’t Jamal Crawford good), an aging vet (Cat Mobley) and the league’s most abusive offender of the term “talented underachiever” (Tim Thomas)?

While I get the thought process behind the moves, I don’t accept it. Especially not this high praise and undue glorification the media has vomited forth. I don't care if those were Walsh's moves to begin with. They are, from a basketball standpoint, horrific moves.

The thought process is to clear cap space for that magical 2010 season when all the top players in the NBA will be free agents…namely Lebron James. And, even if James skips on the suddenly “tantalizing” New York offer, any number of the other players available will be foaming at the mouth at a chance to play in Madison Square Garden with the run-n-gun fun of Mike D’Antoni.

Well, we can scratch Amare Stoudemire off that list, unless, gasp, the big baby, mans up for his shortcomings and finally realizes how good he had it under Mike D.

But I won’t hold my breath. After all, he’s got Shaq as his mentor.

Anyway, I bring this point up because the Memphis Grizzlies and David Wallace routinely got roasted last season for their shedding of Pau Gasol. And this is why I created WestCoast Slant. Because East Coast teams (I guess technically Memphis is in the East, but they are a west coast team) get all kinds of unfair publicity.

Blogger Brian McCormick has a great little blog just about this. Well worth the read.

www.highfivehoopschool.blogspot.com/2008/11/why-do-nba-tv-personalities-hate.html

I’d like to take this moment to add to his ideas.

First and foremost, the deal that Chris Wallace made gains more and more credibility the more his new team gets burn together. Though only sporting 4 wins so far, this team has kept almost every game close (the Knicks and the Dallas games aside).

And the players the Grizzlies got?

Marc Gasol has a 16.91 PER and is one of the top rookies, shooting 58.8 percent in only 30 minutes of action. A 23-year-old rookie with silky jumper, who is 7-1, 285 and has a high basketball IQ that has translated well to the American game would seem to be promising enough compensation for Pau Gasol but throw in Darrell Arthur and Javaris Crittenton and the trade looks almost lopsided in favor of the Grizzlies.

I went over this a couple of weeks ago, but the point must be made known. In only 23 minutes of play, Arthur is averaging 7 and 7 and his 12.83 PER would be a lot better if he could just get his shot down (seems to be a team-wide problem outside of O.J. Mayo and Gasol). His per 40-minute averages are 12 and 12 with 2 blocks (sound like Al Horford to you?) Remember, Arthur’s only 20.

Crittenton, who hasn’t gotten any burn, is 20 as well. Who knows what the Grizz are planning on doing with him, but don’t be surprised if JCritt starts to show his promise if and/or when Mike Conley or Kyle Lowry is traded. Remember, Critt’s main problems are his decision-making and lack of an outside shot. Those are both fixed with practice and game-time. He’s got all the other tools to be an outstanding player—quickness, athletic ability, good handle, etc.

In fact, the average age of the starting five for the Grizzlies is an absurd 21-years old. And they’ve played well in all of their games accept for the two previously mentioned.

Let’s get off of Wallace’s back please. In fact, the irony of all ironies would be if the Grizzlies sit on their cap space and try to sign Lebron themselves. And, thinking in terms of purely just winning…the Grizzlies have all of the tools necessary for Lebron.

Sure, in 2010, the team would have to pay a huge luxury tax (resign Mayo and Gay and Conley/Lowry), but if they could somehow dump or buyout Marko Jaric and Antoine Walker before then, they could have enough cap space AND the ultimate team set up to sign Lebron...mind you, a young team that would have been playing together for 2 years. That sort of built-in consistency and team camaraderie is hard to find. And Lebron's game "fits in" (understatement of the century) with any sort of basketball.

The Grizzlies are and will be athletic able to run and defend. They have a D'Antoni disciple as a coach for those who believe Mike D will be a big selling point for New York. The Grizzlies already have a deadly marksman and feisty defender at the shooting guard spot (Mayo); an athletic,defensive-minded SF with a shaky handle, who can shoot the 3 and is excellent at finishing (Gay); a bruising big with finesse and the ability to make the right play at the right time (Gasol); and one of the following point guards: a pass-first point with lighting speed (Conley) or adefensive, frenetic energy-hound (Lowry). Once Conley and/or Lowry learns to shoot the 3, all the team would need is a power forward.

Enter the King.

Slam Online has a great breakdown of how Lebron is the perfect power forward:

LeBron still starts games at the three and spends a good deal of time out on the perimeter working off screens 30 feet from the basket and will keep the defense honest with deep jumpers every now and again, but the dynamic backcourt play has allowed LeBron to weave elements into his game that we previously only saw on Team USA–playing the high post and driving from the elbow, posting up deep, sealing off and getting easy buckets, getting more fast-break looks and quick post-ups early in the shot clock before the defense can load up, weak-side and back-door cuts often finished with Alley-Oops, and 1-3 pick-and-rolls with Mo Williams that have been effective both ways. He’s been off-the-charts effective when put at the four, where he spends about half as much time as he does at the three–his per-48 minute stats at the four-spot are (this is not a typo) 50/11/9 on 60 percent shooting, for a PER of an even 50. I’ll take that. The +/- statistics for LeBron at the four are favorable as well–the team’s best five-man unit is the reserve crew that puts West and Gibson in the backcourt, Wally Szczerbiak at the small forward (and Wally’s been terrible), and LeBron and Varejao in the front-court. While the unit doesn’t defend or rebound well enough to be a true option, as a curve ball it’s been devastatingly effective.

The results of LeBron’s new gameplan have been staggering. LeBron’s percentage of shots taken “inside,” which is a good place for LeBron to be because he’s one of the five best players in the NBA at converting from that area and easily the best perimeter player, has gone up from 38 to 45 percent, easily the best mark in the NBA for any perimeter player who takes nearly as many shots as LeBron, and his foul drawing rate has also risen. (He’s even displaying a far more confident free throw stroke.) All of these things have LeBron on pace to finish with career-high marks in points per 48 minutes, field goal percentage, true shooting percentage, assist rate and PER, despite the fact his jumper has been way off to start the season. (Despite LeBron’s second consecutive summer of showing a confident outside stroke, LeBron has started the year shooting what would be an easily career-worst 24 percent from three-point range and 35.7 eFG% on his jump shots–usually he finishes at 40 percent.) LeBron is basically dominating without a jumper right now, and there’s no reason to believe it won’t come around to at least his career-average in the coming weeks.

The whole article can be found at http://slamonline.com/online/nba/2008/11/break-it-down-new-look-cavs/

With his newfound ability to play the ultimate power forward, what team is better set up to compliment Lebron’s unique talents? New York players might have a lot of heart, but none of them mesh well with Lebron's talents (okay, maybe Q Richardson, but he's injury-prone). In fact, of the players left, the only player of real note plays the power foward position (David Lee). Nate Robinson needs the ball. Chris Duhon can't shoot. Wilson Chandler is a poor man's Lebron.

The Nets are a bit more prepared to welcome in Lebron with Devin Harris transforming into a stud point. But they have Yi Jianlian at SF and a glut of power forwards. Plus, without that Brooklyn addy, Lebron ain't going to want to play in Jersey.

So, what about the Grizz? Hey, it might not be sexy in terms of pub, but if Lebron is truly about winning, then the Grizzlies have set up the perfect team. He’d be the elder statesman, and only one of a handful of guys in the league that the egos of Gay and Mayo would actually bend over backwards for.

Grizzlies fans are just waiting to bubble over with excitement for their team. Winning breeds a lot of stuff, including endorsements (as if Lebron needed to go to the Knicks to get any bigger or better endorsements than he already has). Sure the endorsements aren't there. But the spotlight will follow Lebron wherever he goes. And there would be a ton of glory to be had. But, it all comes down to what Lebron is playing the game for. Money or Championships...

I hope to God Lebron spits in the face of the New York Knicks, who have made a travesty out of the NBA. People said Isaiah Thomas was a horrible G.M.

I concur.

But Walsh sacrificing two entire seasons of basketball for cap flexibility holding onto the intangible nature of hope...hope—by no means a guarantee—of signing a major free agent is the ultimate in tanking and should not be encouraged or praised, but in fact punished by the league.

And a guy like Chris Wallace, in a mini-market like Memphis, trading away his best asset for a collection of high-upside, high-talent players who have produced right away—that sort of General managing should garner votes for GM of the year.