If you took a poll before the season began of the vast majority of people who care about NBA basketball, 99.8 percent of them would have told you that the Milwaukee Bucks and Sacramento Kings would spend this season vying for the dubious honor of being the worst team in their respective conferences. Even the most positive glass half full Bucks faithful would have told you that the playoffs were a stretch and the most optimistic Sacramentonians would have been ecstatic with 30 wins.
Of course, there was plenty of ink dedicated to the franchises two respective rookie point guards. On that front, nothing has changed, not with Brandon Jennings’ 55-point explosion, his 22 ppg average or his dynamic ability in leading the surprising Bucks to a 9-7 record. Nor with Tyreke Evans leading the Kings to an 8-8 record in the ultra-competitive Western conference, while averaging nearly 19 ppg, 5 assists and 5 rebounds and joining the Dwyane Wade/Andre Igoudala/Lebron James trio of wings who are averaging at least 18 points, 5 dimes and 5 boards.
So, I’m sure you’ve heard of them if you’ve even remotely been paying attention to the NBA.
But the rookie sensations are only half the story. Here’s a few guys from both the Kings and the Bucks who probably haven’t gotten too much ink, but whose importance and contributions to the hot starts of both teams can not, nor should not be overlooked. Basketball is a team sport and these guys have helped put Ws in the left column.
Bucks:
Andrew Bogut
Andrew Bogut is being more aggressive on the block which has resulted in a career year in the scoring department capped off by his 22 point, 15 board, 3 assist, 4 block, 3 steal-night on Monday. This season, in the games the Big Aussie has played in, the Bucks are 6-2 (both losses by shots at the buzzer). More importantly, Jennings has shot 45 percent when Bogut plays as opposed to 36 percent when he doesn’t. While Bogut may never live up to being taken over Deron Williams and Chris Paul, in a twist of fate, it’s worked out pretty nicely now that Jennings is on board. Outside of Greg Oden, haven't seen any 7-foot double-double machines with a post game in the last three drafts.
Luke Ridnour
Remember this past offseason when everyone had no idea why the Bucks wouldn’t re-sign Ramon Sessions, a 23-year-old guard with a career PER over 17? Remember in August of 2008 when everyone questioned the Bucks motive in trading for Luke Ridnour? Well, Jennings is the answer to question one and Ridnour has thus far answered that second question. At 28, Luke is having his finest season blowing away his career highs in field goal percentage (51), 3-point percentage (38) and PER (18.39). He’s hit some clutch shots and has been key in facilitating the Bucks offense when Jennings goes to the bench.
Ersan Ilyasova
Ilyasova’s two seasons playing in the ACB with Barcelona have done wonders for the 22-year-old. While I don’t hold too much stock in per-minute numbers, Ilyasova’s rebound rate puts him in the top 25 rebounders in the entire Association and he hits threes at a 36.4 percent clip, which is a rare combination. While he sometimes looks skittish during crunch time, there’s no doubt that his emergence has helped soften the blow of losing Luc Richard Mbah a Moute and to a lesser extent Joe Alexander. Ilaysova has averaged 14 points and 8.6 rebounds over the past five games. While the Bucks lost four of those, it must be noted that they lost to the Magic by two points and the Hornets by three and were missing not only Mbah a Moute, but Andrew Bogut and for all intents and purposes, Michael Redd.
Carlos Delfino
I’ve always like Carlos Delfino’s game and though his shot hasn’t been falling and his rebounding is down, he has been money from beyond the arc at 42 percent, a crucial aspect of the Bucks offense.
Kings
Omri Casspi
I love watching Casspi play. While it’s notgood that his freethrow percentage (47.4) is nearing his three point percentage (45.7), in another light, you can think of that as phenomenal even if you have to sit through the occasional hack-a-Cass. Casspi is averaging 10 ppg and 3.7 rpg on 51.7 percent shooting, but more than the boxscore, he’s one of those players who just makes things happen. In fact, he is third on the team in +/- behind, well, behind the next two players.
Beno Udrih
ESPN’s John Hollinger is pretty reserved in his bias, but when the numbers speak to him, he sometimes listens with a vengeance. To that end, he’s been extremely critical of Beno Udrih after the Kings signed the 27-year-old to a five-year $32 million contract before last season. Udrih is currently making the Stat-king eat a bit of crow. Using Hollinger’s own system, Udrih is putting up nearly a 17 PER, which ranks him ahead of such all-star players as Devin Harris, Jameer Nelson, Mo Williams, Gilbert Arenas and Jason Kidd, while also outplaying up-and-coming talents like Tyreke Evans, Derrick Rose and Aaron Brooks.
Sergio Rodriguez
I knew Sergio would have a blast in a Paul Westphal-run offense. So far, when given the opportunity, he’s played out-of-this-world. In his last five games, he’s gotten 20 minutes per and done wonders with the limited time. He’s shot 56 percent, including 41 percent from three, while averaging 13 points and 4.6 assists to only 1.4 turnovers. The Kings have won three of those contests (sure, they included the Nets and the Knicks, but still). Right now, the Kings have an extremely potent three-guard combo that doesn’t include Kevin Martin. Who would have thought?
John Brockman
Mr. Garbage man has to get some love here, since he’s fourth on the Kings in +/- and fourth in the entire Association in rebound rate. When put in that light, his 2.8 points and 3.7 boards on 61.5 percent from the field look pretty spectacular for a 6-7 power forward.
With less then a month until training camp breaks, thought it would be a good time to start our annual season preview. There are quite a few “ifs” that could make or break any of the 30 teams this upcoming 09-10 season. Getting away from the formula of those websites that break down teams and rank them in some order that they then try to justify (like we admittedly tried to do last year), we thought it would be nice to try something outside of what has become commonplace in the sports writing/blogosphere.
Here at Westcoast Slant, we’ll simply be breaking down each team and giving realistic outcomes without any sort of finishing order or power ranking, etc. While it may not be as controversial as a ranking system, it will undoubtedly be more insightful for those who are interested in the game of basketball and not the dark art of fortune telling. So, of course we’ll begin out west with teams that are pretty much set with their rosters going into training camp.
Sacramento Kings
Let’s be honest, expectations for this team are not high and many pundits believe that they will be the worst team in the entire Association next season. While it’s easy to label a team that only won 17 games last year as next year’s winners of the worst team award, give me any season and we’ll see teams projected to do poorly, actually do okay. I’m not saying the Kings will make the playoffs, but recent history teaches us not to bet against promising youth. Many thought the Oklahoma City Thunder were going to be historically bad, especially after their putrid start, but their young players developed as the season went along and the team went 10-16 after the All-Star break after having gone 13-43 before it. Check out this blog for another example of a young team defying expectations and the ensuing enjoyment that fans got out of it.
With that in mind, these “ifs” if answered positively, could mean 25-30 wins for the Kings, doubling last season’s effort.
The first if is obviously true for every team we’ll be covering over the next couple of weeks. If the Kings stay healthy, they could make a run at 30 wins. This is no easy feat considering the Kings franchise player, Kevin Martin, has only averaged 61 games over his five seasons. Last year he played in 51. The year before? 61. So, it’s not like his injury last season was the exception to the rule. Kid misses games plain and simple. If Martin can stay healthy, he could average 25 points a game and do so in the K-Mart way, which is super-duper efficiently.
Along those lines, there’s the whole if Tyreke Evans and K-Mart can coexist question. For what it’s worth, I like the pairing. Yes, Evans is untested as a point guard, but if nothing else, the Kings will be shooting a lot of free throws next year since Evans and Martin prolifically get to the charity stripe. Also, Martin averaged 20 a game playing with gunners Mike Bibby and Ron Artest (on less shots) which only proves that he finds ways to score no matter how many shots he gets. It’s not like Evans will be jacking up 30 shots a game (at least, I hope not). There’s plenty of shots to go around on this squad. Evans and Martin, if healthy, will make a dynamic backcourt that has the ability to average 45 points a game.
And don’t count out a small ball lineup that will feature Martin at the three, Evans at the two and newly acquired Sergio Rodriguez leading the break.
While this offseason depressingly saw the Maloofs cutting payroll like a paper shredder, there are two things that Kings fans should be excited about for the 09-10 season. First, the roster is filled with talented youth. Outside of the expiring contract known as Kenny Thomas (K-9), the Kings do not feature anyone over the age of 30. Their current star player (Martin) is 26 and their star of the future (Evans) is 19. Jason Thompson is 23 and Spencer Hawes is 21. And as far as K-9 is concerned, there’s a slim possibility he nets some moderate talent being that he’s one of the bigger expirings this year.
The second thing to be excited about is Paul Westphal. For all the haters out there (Tom Ziller), Westphal has a 267-159 coaching record, for a .626 win percentage. A number that is only bettered by four other current coaches with more than a season under their belts (Rambo doesn’t even have half a season so he doesn’t count). The coaches are Phil Jackson, Greg Popovich, Mike Brown, and Stan Van Gundy.
While I’m not trying to put Westphal in their company, though, I guess that’s exactly what I’ve done, I am saying that he’s had success as a coach. Big time success in fact, success that included a trip to the finals, something Mike D has only dreamed about.
And Westphal knows how to run an offense. He was like the OG D’Antoni back in the 90s. During his three full seasons guiding the Suns, Phoenix led the league in offensive rating the first two seasons, and finished third in his last. They also averaged 59 wins during that span.
Evans could grow into a Kevin Johnson type player. Martin is already a superior offensive player to my all-time favorite Sun, Thunder Dan Majerle (though, nowhere close defensively) but I won’t even try to say that Thompson is a poor man’s Barkley because, well, that would be a stretch even my imagination can’t justify. But there are some similarities. Andres Nocioni can shoot. Spencer Hawes can shoot. Francisco Garcia can shoot. Omri Casspi could shoot in Europe. There’s no reason outside of bad chemistry or disgruntled players that this squad won’t be effective in a Westphal-run system.
Looking at that lineup, the Kings have some intriguing pieces that just need time to grow up together. However, there is the potential problem of lack of playing time, even on this, a most likely lottery-bound team, due to the redundancy in the current makeup of the roster.
Evans is slotted to be a one, but the Kings committed big money and years to Beno Udrih last summer—$32 million over five years to be exact. They also acquired Rodriguez this offseason and neither Rodriguez nor Udrih can legitimately play the two. Where and if Udrih plays will be a big question especially considering his latest injury that is estimated to put him out until right before training camp. He’s not really a point guard/point guard, though he did average six assists the last 16 games of the season. His high-end midrange game is not as effective or as valuable with Evans on board, and if the Kings decide to run next year, Sergio’s game is tailor-made for that style.
Further complicating matters is the logjam at small forward where Francisco Garcia, Andres Nocioni, recently drafted Omri Casspi and the as-of-yet disappointing Donte Green all look to play. Garcia can and will play some shooting guard, and Casspi is supposedly versatile enough to play three or four different positions, but he’s never played in the NBA, so I won’t jump to any conclusions. He’ll get some burn because of his scrappiness and work ethic and overall energy, but it’s unlikely he’ll be a major contributor this year due to the plethora of small forward options.
Assuming Evans is able to quickly adapt to NBA-life, the next biggest improvement to the team will most likely come from the bigs. Thompson must build on his solid rookie campaign. People made a fuss about his advanced age coming out of college, but he’s still only 23. There’s plenty of room for growth—polishing up that raw offensive game and learning the nuances of defense being most important. Hawes is another who will need to continue to develop.
Surprisingly, the man who could have the biggest impact (no pun intended) on the team is the injury-prone Sean May who could be pushing both Thompson and Hawes for minutes by midseason. May could be the poster child for John Hollinger’s PER system and why I use it as one of several tools for evaluation, but refuse to place too much importance on its findings. For me, it’s more like a guidebook. Two years ago, May’s per-40 minute numbers looked very impressive, 20, 11 and three assists with a 19.22 PER. But injuries, weight issues and reality have proven May to thus far be considered a bust. He’s played all of 82 games in four seasons. Seeing that he’s only 25, there’s every possibility that he could have another stellar year playing as Thompson and Hawes’ backup without the pressure of a starting role. Of course, there’s also the likelihood that he’ll miss 60 games.
Overall, Kings fans shouldn’t be too depressed. Come the trade deadline, the Kings will be a major player with K-9, even if they prove to be just window shopping. Furthermore, the additions of Westphal, running point guards Rodriguez and Evans and the potential of May combined with the continued development of Hawes, Thompson and Martin mean that the Kings will be fun to watch and will be a lot tougher than a year ago.
If things fall the right way (which would pretty much be the opposite of last year), the Kings will be quite a bit better than people think, though, playoffs are a pipedream at best.
