What's Wrong with the Heat?

With their third straight loss in a row, including a 19-point drubbing by the Indiana Pacers (who now have a better winning percentage), the grand experiment with grouping three of the League's top ten players together on the Miami Heat appears to be reaching depths unforeseen by many in the media.

I expected some bumps in the road, but I figured the team would at least be exciting to watch. In fact, they’re quite boring outside the occasional Wade to Lebron or Lebron to Wade alley-oop. After watching several of their games this year, I’m noticing a couple of things.

First of all, it’s obvious that Wade and Lebron struggle when they aren’t dominating the ball. That’s about as “duh” of a statement as I can get. But, let’s really break it down.

Tonight against the Orlando Magic, at the 10-minute mark of the fourth quarter, Lebron subbed out for Zydrunas Ilgauskus and Wade came in for Jamaal Magloire. Over the course of the next four minutes, Wade dominated. After a Bosh three-point play, Wade had his hand in nearly every positive play—he got to the line and made a pair of freethrows, assisted on a Big Z jumper, assisted on an Eddie House three, burned Reddick baseline for a dunk, hit a running jumper and-one to put the Heat up 88-87. In a four-minute span, he carried the Heat to their first lead since the 4:50 mark of the first quarter.

As soon as the Heat took the lead, up from the bench came Lebron and I had a strong feeling that the Magic were going to win the game despite the Heat holding all the momentum.

Look, I’m not trying to make big sweeping statements. According to plus/minus, the Heat’s three best lineups all involve the big three.

But I’m convinced that Bosh and Lebron don’t know how to do “dirty work.” For the last couple of seasons, Lebron’s compiled wicked stats, flown in for momentum-shifting breakaway blocks, barreled his way to the hoop for monstrous dunks...he's basically been able to have all of the glory, all of the spotlight moments. But he’s always had others to do the dirty work. Anderson Varejao being the foremost, but also guys like Delonte West, Jamario Moon, Ben Wallace, Joe Smith. All of those guys set mean picks, grabbed offensive rebounds, played all-defense caliber defense (well, not Moon), showed on the pick and roll, took charges, etc.

This year's Heat don't really have that guy, especially now that Udonis Haslem is out for several weeks. Jamaal Magloire might have been that guy seven years ago, and he can do some damage in 15-minute spurts, but he’s not close to the same ilk as Varejao, Wallace or even Smith. And he certainly can’t do it for 25 minutes a night.

Instead, Lebron’s got Chris Bosh, another guy who’s never really done the dirty work, but more because he’s just not physically built to do so. Unlike Lebron, however, Bosh has not had a complimentary guy to do it for him (let alone four or five)—hence the inability to advance past the first round.

I had high hopes for Bosh (who has started to come around offensively thanks in part to Wade sitting out with injury) because he was the garbage man during the Beijing Olympics. He did all those little things that helped the team win and shot 70 percent basically because he was the recipient on pick and rolls and put backs.

He works beautifully on the pick and pop with Wade. But with Lebron on the floor, everything seems to grind to a terrible halt. Lots of Isos and standing around watching. While some of that has to be on coach Spoelstra, as the team's best player, Lebron has to take most of the, ahem, heat for this. He’s the only player who hasn’t changed his game at all. Sure, he’s giving the ball up a bit more so that Wade can dominate for a while, but he hasn’t really changed the way he goes about his game.

If he’s not the main focus of a play, he tends to float on the perimeter. With his strength and athleticism, he should be the ultimate version of Trevor Ariza when he’s playing off the ball. Instead, he’s averaging a career low in rebounds. The most damning sign of all is his 0.4 offensive rebounds per game. Lebron’s never been a great offensive rebounder mainly because he’s always been the guy creating offense, but now with Wade and Bosh attracting so much attention, there’s no reason why he shouldn’t be getting at the very least one offensive board per contest.

Besides, Wade has done that. He’s always been a great offensive rebounder despite also shouldering the burden of carrying teams (far less talented then Lebron has had). Wade is averaging 1.2 O-boards a game from the guard position and he gives up four inches and 45 pounds to Lebron. Wade is averaging more total boards than Lebron, more blocks (1.1 to LBJ's 0.6) and more fouls. All effort categories. All dirty work.

Not only that, but Wade also looked like he worked on his three-point shooting this offseason. He came out the gates sizzling hot hitting 11-26 before his current shooting slump where he's missed 18 of his last 19 attempts over his past six contests. The point is, he knew he was going to have to play off the ball and worked on his three-point shooting . In fact, the one three he made tonight was the one where he got his feet set and squared up—a spot up shot.

If the Heat want to be the best team in the league, and by all means, they should at least be the best starting five in the league with Carlos Arroyo playing out of his mind and Big Z at supreme efficiency, Lebron is going to have to take a page from Kobe’s playbook and become a firefighter. (Quick side note: Gotta love Arroyo for recognizing the opportunity of his lifetime and not shying from the moment. A career 44 percent shooter and 33 percent from beyond the arc, Arroyo is hitting at 50 and 64 respectively. Yeah, 64 from three).

What I mean by firefighter is Lebron’s going to have to be the guy who does whatever the team needs. Basically, Wade will orchestrate the offense and set everyone up while Bosh plays that ideal, complimentary scoring option. Lebron’s going to have to be the guy who fills in all of the gaps--the ultimate role player.

He’s going to have to drop the I’m-no-longer-Jordan-I’m-Magic schtick.

As I wrote a couple weeks ago, Lebron ain’t no Magic. The sooner he realizes this the faster the Heat will get on track. Lebron’s going to have to get his hands dirty. He’s going to have to start diving to the hoop for offensive rebounds instead of watching from the perimeter as Wade throws up a fadeway jumper. He’s going to have to take it upon himself to shut down the opposing team’s best player whether that’s Kobe or Dwight Howard. He’s going to have to start focusing more on his defense and less on his stats. With his freak athleticism and strength, stats will come. They might not be as pretty as they have been. His PER might not lead the league and he might not get many triple doubles, but dude has all the potential to be a consistent 5x5 threat every single night. On this team, there's no reason why he shouldn't average at least two blocks, two steals and two offensive boards a game.

No reason.

Do I think that’s going to happen? No. As evidenced by “The Decision” and his butt-hurt talk in its aftermath, Lebron is not lacking in pride and subsequent arrogance. I have no personal insight into his mind or his life or anything like that, but the fact he didn’t work on his game at all this summer shows me that he thinks he can be Lebron, simply add Wade and Bosh, and win it all.

Lebron’s going to have to change the most if he wants this to work. He’s the most talented player on the team, the most versatile and the most dominant. But that just means he’s the most suited to be the ultimate Trevor Ariza—the ultimate Scottie Pippen.

If and when Lebron gets his inner KG on, look out NBA.

The Greatest Season Ever: Post 1

Been a long time since I last posted something. No time like the present to start it up again. I don’t think I’ve ever been so excited about an NBA season before. So many changes, so many exciting storylines: the Superfriends, the Lakers 3peat aspirations, the maturation of young teams like the Bucks and Thunder, the refusal to concede of veteran championship squads like the Celtics and Spurs, vindication mixed with a pinch of revenge for the Cavs, and of course Blake Griffin.

Here’s an interesting thought. If Andrew Bynum really will be out until December, a Lakers squad sans the soon-to-be 23-year-old is not nearly “faraway best in the west.” In fact, without Bynum, Dallas has a much deeper, bigger team and suddenly Portland has the size advantage and the Thunder no longer is too small.

On a quick side note, I honestly think expectations are too high for OKC. First of all, while the team has extremely talented bigs, all of them are really power-forwards, except for Cole Aldrich who’s big, but also a rookie. In addition, the Thunder have never won a playoff series and they’re a young team (average age was 24 last season). The last Finals team whose best players had never won a playoff series before that season was the Shaq/Penny Magic in 94-95. And as good as Durant is going to be this year, not sure he’s at 94-95 Shaq level. Shaq, because of his sheer size, caused massive adjustments on both ends of the floor. Durant’s awesome, but he still lacks defensively, and in three seasons he’s never averaged three assists. Even Melo averages more than three assists. Hell, a third-year Shaq only had 16 less assists (in three less games) than a third-year Durant. So, yeah, Durant’s got a ways to go before he impacts entire games like young Shaq. End, somewhat long “quick side note.”

All that to say, if Bynum is out? Yeah, definitely I can see the Thunder beating the Lakers.

And, I really, really like a healthy San Antonio team. Especially if Richard Jefferson learned anything at all from Greg Popovich over the past month in their one-on-one time. A Jefferson closer to his 08 self, a healthy Tony Parker (who, for whatever odd reason a lot of people seem to be overlooking), and 2010 MVP of the Spanish League Tiago Splitter, along with Duncan, Ginobili and Pop—that team is Lakers-with-Bynum good.

So, I’m not convinced that the Lakers are far and away favorites in the West. On a similar line of thinking, I don’t understand how people believe the Heat are going to automatically roll to the finals. Could they win 70 plus games? Absolutely. In fact, if they don’t, it’s going to be somewhat disappointing. I mean, come on. They’ve got arguably the Association’s top two talents and arguably the league’s best power-forward. I know Pau Gasol is widely considered the best power forward. And I think he’s a wonderful player. Top-15 for sure. But he’s playing with Kobe Bryant! Who’s Nowitzki played with? (Okay, Nash, but he’s no Bryant). How about Chris Bosh?

Forget Bynum, Artest, Odom, and Phil’s HOF coaching, Bosh has never even played with one other great player. I mean, Vince Carter…Sure, VC had MJ talent, but without the MJ drive to go with it, the former Tar Heel high water marked at all-star/best dunker of all time—which is sadly poetic considering VC stopped doing the dunk contest because he didn’t want to be known as a dunker.

But, I again digress. Back to Bosh. While he never has played with much talent, he’s also never been coached by the best. No offense to Kevin O’Neil, Sam Mitchell, and Jay Triano. O’Neil has an NBA record of 33-49 to go along with his 187-194 career college record. Mitchell won coach of the year, but in four full seasons, his teams only had one season over .500, a 41-41 season, a 33-win club and a 27-win club. Triano’s 65-82 for his career.

I know Spoelestra (career 90-74 record) is no veteran coach, but he did a phenomenal job with last season’s team that finished second in opponent FG%, second in opponent points per game, and seventh in defensive rating according to basketball-reference.com while ESPN’s John Hollinger had them rated as the fourth best defense. That’s all the physical evidence I need to accept that he truly is Pat Riley’s disciple. Whatever you may think of Pat Riley, there’s no denying his ability to win. And in terms of quality of NBA coaches, Riles walks closest to Red Aurbach.

So, it will be interesting to see how the storyline concerning Bosh’s status in the NBA goes and how people’s view of Gasol as the best power forward will change now that Bosh is playing with Kobe-Bryant-level talent, under the direction of a Hall of Famer.

Remember, Bosh shot 77 percent during the 2008 Olympics. He also led the team in rebounding and as a roleplayer, he was free to play tenacious defense. With Lebron and Wade this season, I could easily see a healthy Bosh shooting over 60 percent from the field and averaging 11 plus rebounds while leading the team in scoring and being a beast on defense.

Trade Talk (Amare for Bosh)

Amare should have gone a long time ago. But if he’s got to go now, then why not make the following deal?

Chris Bosh and Anthony Parker for Amare Stoudemire and Leandro Barbosa

From Phoenix’s standpoint, it seems like they are giving up more talent, but think about it. If you put the selfless Bosh, who does all those little things to help teams win (think his quiet dominance in the Olympics) on this team, they have to immediately shoot to the top of everyone’s Western Conference favorites, not just this year, but certainly next as well. Bosh had no problem doing whatever was needed of him on the Olympic squad (a good example of why Amare should have played over the summer), whether that was blocking shots, rebounding, taking charges, whatever. He’s also got the ability to drop 40 on any given night. Sounds exactly like what everyone hoped Amare could be. What's even better, Bosh's game meshes much more fluidly with Shaq's.

Bosh will be a free agent in 2010, but Phoenix’s window is now, that’s what Kerr said when he traded for Shaq, so they have to go after the title this year and next. Besides, Bosh might even sign an extension since he’s a Texas native, and Phoenix has Texas-weather and culture in abundance. Also, in the here and now, Parker is an upgrade on defense and doesn’t need to have the ball in his hands to be effective, but can still have big Barbosa-like nights on occasion. Besides, his salary (nearly $5 million) comes off the book next season which would be in line with the Suns desire to shed payroll.

From Toronto’s standpoint, throwing Barbosa into the mix gives them two assets in exchange for Bosh. Basically, they’ll be giving up the better overall player right now for one who has the potential to be better, but has not yet lived up to it along with a dynamic wing player who can play some backup point guard. Calangelo’s been trying to move Parker anyway, so this allows him to retrieve one of his own draft choices (who he loved back in Phoenix I might add). Calderon is the perfect Amare compliment on the pick and roll (well, besides Nash), who does everything Nash does—pass well, lobs well, shoots well, etc. just not quite up to Nash’s level.

With Amare going back to the pick and roll every other play, he would be the unquestioned focal point of the team and would bring 28 and 9 every night as the featured star—something Bosh was unable to do consistently. His crushing inside presence should allow Jermaine O’Neal to patrol the paint on defense, and sit outside and shoot jumpers (he’s better at this at this stage in his career) while Amare goes to work inside on O. Think about this, if Amare goes to the East and averages 30 a game, you don’t think the Raptors would have a chance to make the playoffs? Bosh can’t do that. He can do a lot of other things, but he can’t do that. An Amare led Raptors could finish 20-9 the rest of the way, which would, according to John Hollinger be enough for them to get into the playoffs. If the Raptors start to roll and everyone is suddenly talking about Amare as an MVP candidate rather than a bad choice to start the all-star game, Sun Tzu will have the motivation he needs to bring his “gorilla game” each and every night. He might even, gasp, break into double digit rebounding for once in his career.

Calangelo has ties to Phoenix, obviously, and if neither side feels like they are getting screwed over, then this could be a case of trading stars in need of a change of scenery and could work out well for both teams both in the short term and long term.