What's Wrong with the Heat?

With their third straight loss in a row, including a 19-point drubbing by the Indiana Pacers (who now have a better winning percentage), the grand experiment with grouping three of the League's top ten players together on the Miami Heat appears to be reaching depths unforeseen by many in the media.

I expected some bumps in the road, but I figured the team would at least be exciting to watch. In fact, they’re quite boring outside the occasional Wade to Lebron or Lebron to Wade alley-oop. After watching several of their games this year, I’m noticing a couple of things.

First of all, it’s obvious that Wade and Lebron struggle when they aren’t dominating the ball. That’s about as “duh” of a statement as I can get. But, let’s really break it down.

Tonight against the Orlando Magic, at the 10-minute mark of the fourth quarter, Lebron subbed out for Zydrunas Ilgauskus and Wade came in for Jamaal Magloire. Over the course of the next four minutes, Wade dominated. After a Bosh three-point play, Wade had his hand in nearly every positive play—he got to the line and made a pair of freethrows, assisted on a Big Z jumper, assisted on an Eddie House three, burned Reddick baseline for a dunk, hit a running jumper and-one to put the Heat up 88-87. In a four-minute span, he carried the Heat to their first lead since the 4:50 mark of the first quarter.

As soon as the Heat took the lead, up from the bench came Lebron and I had a strong feeling that the Magic were going to win the game despite the Heat holding all the momentum.

Look, I’m not trying to make big sweeping statements. According to plus/minus, the Heat’s three best lineups all involve the big three.

But I’m convinced that Bosh and Lebron don’t know how to do “dirty work.” For the last couple of seasons, Lebron’s compiled wicked stats, flown in for momentum-shifting breakaway blocks, barreled his way to the hoop for monstrous dunks...he's basically been able to have all of the glory, all of the spotlight moments. But he’s always had others to do the dirty work. Anderson Varejao being the foremost, but also guys like Delonte West, Jamario Moon, Ben Wallace, Joe Smith. All of those guys set mean picks, grabbed offensive rebounds, played all-defense caliber defense (well, not Moon), showed on the pick and roll, took charges, etc.

This year's Heat don't really have that guy, especially now that Udonis Haslem is out for several weeks. Jamaal Magloire might have been that guy seven years ago, and he can do some damage in 15-minute spurts, but he’s not close to the same ilk as Varejao, Wallace or even Smith. And he certainly can’t do it for 25 minutes a night.

Instead, Lebron’s got Chris Bosh, another guy who’s never really done the dirty work, but more because he’s just not physically built to do so. Unlike Lebron, however, Bosh has not had a complimentary guy to do it for him (let alone four or five)—hence the inability to advance past the first round.

I had high hopes for Bosh (who has started to come around offensively thanks in part to Wade sitting out with injury) because he was the garbage man during the Beijing Olympics. He did all those little things that helped the team win and shot 70 percent basically because he was the recipient on pick and rolls and put backs.

He works beautifully on the pick and pop with Wade. But with Lebron on the floor, everything seems to grind to a terrible halt. Lots of Isos and standing around watching. While some of that has to be on coach Spoelstra, as the team's best player, Lebron has to take most of the, ahem, heat for this. He’s the only player who hasn’t changed his game at all. Sure, he’s giving the ball up a bit more so that Wade can dominate for a while, but he hasn’t really changed the way he goes about his game.

If he’s not the main focus of a play, he tends to float on the perimeter. With his strength and athleticism, he should be the ultimate version of Trevor Ariza when he’s playing off the ball. Instead, he’s averaging a career low in rebounds. The most damning sign of all is his 0.4 offensive rebounds per game. Lebron’s never been a great offensive rebounder mainly because he’s always been the guy creating offense, but now with Wade and Bosh attracting so much attention, there’s no reason why he shouldn’t be getting at the very least one offensive board per contest.

Besides, Wade has done that. He’s always been a great offensive rebounder despite also shouldering the burden of carrying teams (far less talented then Lebron has had). Wade is averaging 1.2 O-boards a game from the guard position and he gives up four inches and 45 pounds to Lebron. Wade is averaging more total boards than Lebron, more blocks (1.1 to LBJ's 0.6) and more fouls. All effort categories. All dirty work.

Not only that, but Wade also looked like he worked on his three-point shooting this offseason. He came out the gates sizzling hot hitting 11-26 before his current shooting slump where he's missed 18 of his last 19 attempts over his past six contests. The point is, he knew he was going to have to play off the ball and worked on his three-point shooting . In fact, the one three he made tonight was the one where he got his feet set and squared up—a spot up shot.

If the Heat want to be the best team in the league, and by all means, they should at least be the best starting five in the league with Carlos Arroyo playing out of his mind and Big Z at supreme efficiency, Lebron is going to have to take a page from Kobe’s playbook and become a firefighter. (Quick side note: Gotta love Arroyo for recognizing the opportunity of his lifetime and not shying from the moment. A career 44 percent shooter and 33 percent from beyond the arc, Arroyo is hitting at 50 and 64 respectively. Yeah, 64 from three).

What I mean by firefighter is Lebron’s going to have to be the guy who does whatever the team needs. Basically, Wade will orchestrate the offense and set everyone up while Bosh plays that ideal, complimentary scoring option. Lebron’s going to have to be the guy who fills in all of the gaps--the ultimate role player.

He’s going to have to drop the I’m-no-longer-Jordan-I’m-Magic schtick.

As I wrote a couple weeks ago, Lebron ain’t no Magic. The sooner he realizes this the faster the Heat will get on track. Lebron’s going to have to get his hands dirty. He’s going to have to start diving to the hoop for offensive rebounds instead of watching from the perimeter as Wade throws up a fadeway jumper. He’s going to have to take it upon himself to shut down the opposing team’s best player whether that’s Kobe or Dwight Howard. He’s going to have to start focusing more on his defense and less on his stats. With his freak athleticism and strength, stats will come. They might not be as pretty as they have been. His PER might not lead the league and he might not get many triple doubles, but dude has all the potential to be a consistent 5x5 threat every single night. On this team, there's no reason why he shouldn't average at least two blocks, two steals and two offensive boards a game.

No reason.

Do I think that’s going to happen? No. As evidenced by “The Decision” and his butt-hurt talk in its aftermath, Lebron is not lacking in pride and subsequent arrogance. I have no personal insight into his mind or his life or anything like that, but the fact he didn’t work on his game at all this summer shows me that he thinks he can be Lebron, simply add Wade and Bosh, and win it all.

Lebron’s going to have to change the most if he wants this to work. He’s the most talented player on the team, the most versatile and the most dominant. But that just means he’s the most suited to be the ultimate Trevor Ariza—the ultimate Scottie Pippen.

If and when Lebron gets his inner KG on, look out NBA.

The Greatest Season Ever: Post 1

Been a long time since I last posted something. No time like the present to start it up again. I don’t think I’ve ever been so excited about an NBA season before. So many changes, so many exciting storylines: the Superfriends, the Lakers 3peat aspirations, the maturation of young teams like the Bucks and Thunder, the refusal to concede of veteran championship squads like the Celtics and Spurs, vindication mixed with a pinch of revenge for the Cavs, and of course Blake Griffin.

Here’s an interesting thought. If Andrew Bynum really will be out until December, a Lakers squad sans the soon-to-be 23-year-old is not nearly “faraway best in the west.” In fact, without Bynum, Dallas has a much deeper, bigger team and suddenly Portland has the size advantage and the Thunder no longer is too small.

On a quick side note, I honestly think expectations are too high for OKC. First of all, while the team has extremely talented bigs, all of them are really power-forwards, except for Cole Aldrich who’s big, but also a rookie. In addition, the Thunder have never won a playoff series and they’re a young team (average age was 24 last season). The last Finals team whose best players had never won a playoff series before that season was the Shaq/Penny Magic in 94-95. And as good as Durant is going to be this year, not sure he’s at 94-95 Shaq level. Shaq, because of his sheer size, caused massive adjustments on both ends of the floor. Durant’s awesome, but he still lacks defensively, and in three seasons he’s never averaged three assists. Even Melo averages more than three assists. Hell, a third-year Shaq only had 16 less assists (in three less games) than a third-year Durant. So, yeah, Durant’s got a ways to go before he impacts entire games like young Shaq. End, somewhat long “quick side note.”

All that to say, if Bynum is out? Yeah, definitely I can see the Thunder beating the Lakers.

And, I really, really like a healthy San Antonio team. Especially if Richard Jefferson learned anything at all from Greg Popovich over the past month in their one-on-one time. A Jefferson closer to his 08 self, a healthy Tony Parker (who, for whatever odd reason a lot of people seem to be overlooking), and 2010 MVP of the Spanish League Tiago Splitter, along with Duncan, Ginobili and Pop—that team is Lakers-with-Bynum good.

So, I’m not convinced that the Lakers are far and away favorites in the West. On a similar line of thinking, I don’t understand how people believe the Heat are going to automatically roll to the finals. Could they win 70 plus games? Absolutely. In fact, if they don’t, it’s going to be somewhat disappointing. I mean, come on. They’ve got arguably the Association’s top two talents and arguably the league’s best power-forward. I know Pau Gasol is widely considered the best power forward. And I think he’s a wonderful player. Top-15 for sure. But he’s playing with Kobe Bryant! Who’s Nowitzki played with? (Okay, Nash, but he’s no Bryant). How about Chris Bosh?

Forget Bynum, Artest, Odom, and Phil’s HOF coaching, Bosh has never even played with one other great player. I mean, Vince Carter…Sure, VC had MJ talent, but without the MJ drive to go with it, the former Tar Heel high water marked at all-star/best dunker of all time—which is sadly poetic considering VC stopped doing the dunk contest because he didn’t want to be known as a dunker.

But, I again digress. Back to Bosh. While he never has played with much talent, he’s also never been coached by the best. No offense to Kevin O’Neil, Sam Mitchell, and Jay Triano. O’Neil has an NBA record of 33-49 to go along with his 187-194 career college record. Mitchell won coach of the year, but in four full seasons, his teams only had one season over .500, a 41-41 season, a 33-win club and a 27-win club. Triano’s 65-82 for his career.

I know Spoelestra (career 90-74 record) is no veteran coach, but he did a phenomenal job with last season’s team that finished second in opponent FG%, second in opponent points per game, and seventh in defensive rating according to basketball-reference.com while ESPN’s John Hollinger had them rated as the fourth best defense. That’s all the physical evidence I need to accept that he truly is Pat Riley’s disciple. Whatever you may think of Pat Riley, there’s no denying his ability to win. And in terms of quality of NBA coaches, Riles walks closest to Red Aurbach.

So, it will be interesting to see how the storyline concerning Bosh’s status in the NBA goes and how people’s view of Gasol as the best power forward will change now that Bosh is playing with Kobe-Bryant-level talent, under the direction of a Hall of Famer.

Remember, Bosh shot 77 percent during the 2008 Olympics. He also led the team in rebounding and as a roleplayer, he was free to play tenacious defense. With Lebron and Wade this season, I could easily see a healthy Bosh shooting over 60 percent from the field and averaging 11 plus rebounds while leading the team in scoring and being a beast on defense.

K-O-B-E

Kobe Bryant won that game last night. (You can check out his miracle three here.)

Look, I don’t mean to belittle Pau Gasol’s tip back that tied the game with a minute to go or his pair of clutch freethrows to bring the game within two with nine seconds to go. I especially don’t want to overlook Derek Fisher’s step back three that put the Lakers within a point with four seconds left in the game. All of those plays were critical, vital even.

I’m also not going to argue that Dwyane Wade missed a freethrow after Fisher’s triple that would have ensured the Heat at least overtime. Hell, the guy went 12-18 from the stripe last night (a side note, Wade’s freethrow total nearly matched that of Bryant, Gasol, and Andrew Bynum combined (21), who, as noted in ESPN’s Weekend Dime make up three of the top five players in the NBA in scoring in the paint).

But I will say it again. Kobe won that game. He put the team on his back going into the fourth quarter and turned a 76-76 tie into a six-point Laker advantage a minute and ten seconds into it. The boxscore indicates he only had three assists, but he fed several wide-open looks to Ron Artest, Fisher and Shannon Brown (a combined 9-32) that they just didn’t hit. He was moving the ball around in the first half and only took six shots.

And because of his last second game winner, nobody is even talking about him slicing between three defenders and fading away to a hit running-bank to end the first half.

Kobe also helped to limit Wade to 2-9 from the field in the first half.

In fact, Bryant seemed to make it his mission to harass Wade and outside of about six times a high pick came and Wade made something happen via scoring himself or assisting on a bucket or getting to the line, Bryant accomplished his mission. Wade did a lot of his damage when matched up against Brown and Artest. Brown, while energetic and athletic, doesn’t possess the savvy necessary and Artest, who is a brute and can hang with bigger small forwards, doesn’t have the speed to hang with Wade.

The Black Mamba put full body pressure on Flash and forced him into tough shots or giving up the ball (though I’m still not sure why Bryant picked him up at half court and beyond).

Offensively, Kobe put on a show as well. He hit a now standard fake left, turnaround fadeway jumper, a running, left-handed baby sky hook, as well as a couple of different and ones, including a scoop shot off a drive into JO (which could have been a charge…)

And of course, he hit this shot. Watch it again. Staples Center…Where Kobe happens.

Oh, it’s also where Sasha Vujacic can put up a statline of zeros across the board and yet still manage to have a +6 in the +/- department. (Hint, he was in during the last few seconds of the game when Fish and Kobe both hit their improbable threes.)

Wade vs Kobe

There was some hype going into last night’s Heat versus Lakers game that featured the two premiere shooting guards facing off in Los Angeles. There was added intrigue for Lakers fans, due to the Heat being one of only 6 other teams who have beaten the reigning Western Conference champs.

The game featured the league’s top (Wade) and third leading scorer (Bryant) butting heads. Literally. Wade finished the game with an ice pack on his head and Bryant had to have 4 stitches above his right eye. It was a gritty matchup, unlike their high-scoring affair three Christmas' ago.

The Heat stayed in the game thanks to the hot shooting of rookie Michael Beasley who drilled 10-16 shots for 23 points and the three point accuracy of Daequan Cook who shot 5-9 from downtown. Looked like he got his wrist slapped at the end of the game, but I see that happen to Kobe all the time, so, no harm no foul I guess. The Lakers stayed in the game thanks to Andrew Bynum's 24 points and Fish's 11 assists and Pau's 18 rebounds.

As far as the main event matchup is concerned, if you were to simply check the box score, you would read that Kobe got badly outplayed by Wade. Flash finished with 27 points, 9 assists, 5 rebounds, 2 steals and 2 blocks, shooting 10-22 from the field.

On the other side of things, the reigning MVP made only 5-14 shots, finishing with 19 points, 7 assists, and 2 rebounds with no steals or blocks.

What the boxscore does not tell, is that Kobe, despite the poor shooting night, had the better night of the two. While Wade was pretty much asked to do everything, it was obvious that Kobe’s main responsibility was to stop Wade. #24 was up in #3’s jersey from the moment the ball was inbounded on every single Heat possession. Wade’s going to be smelling Bryant’s sweat at least until Miami plays Minny on Tuesday.

Both star guards played the entire first quarter. During that quarter, Wade shot 3-6, with a turnover and 2 assists. Kobe, amassed 6 assists and but only 3 points on one attempt.

Kobe and Wade both sat out at the beginning of the second quarter. Lakers had a 26-21 lead, and carried that until Wade entered at 8:08. At about the 7 minute mark, with Kobe still on the bench, Wade goes on a tear and proceeds to hit a 3 pointer, 2 freethrows and a 21-foot jumper to tie the game at 34-34. Overall, he’s 2-3 from the field.

At 5:33 of the second quarter, Kobe checks back in. With Kobe hounding him again, Wade finishes the quarter with a made bucket, 2 assists and 2 turnovers.

In the first half, while going up against Bryant, Wade shot 4-7, with 3 turnovers and 4 assists. When Kobe was out, Wade shot 2-3, with a pair of made freethrows.

The third quarter began with both playing the entire 12 minutes. With Kobe hounding him again, Wade misses all four of his attempts and the Heat’s 1 point lead vanishes into a 60-73 lead for the Lakers. At the 2:30 mark, Wade puts the team on his back and scores a layup and draws a foul on Gasol for the and-one. He gets to the line again for two more freethrows. Then misses another shot. For the quarter, Kobe went 4-7 from the field and 1-1 from the line with 1 assist. Wade shot 1-6 and 3-3 from the line with no assists. The Lakers carry a 71-77 lead into the fourth quarter.

In the fourth, Wade and Kobe both sit. Wade enters first at the 9:33 mark. In the span of a minute, from 8:25 to 7:24, Wade scores 7 points, all while Bryant is still riding pine. His flurry turns a 77-85 lead for the Lakers into a 3-point game 82-85.

Kobe Bryant enters at 7:11 and Wade doesn’t score the rest of the way shooting 0-4. He does, however, amass 4 assists in the final 7 minutes of play, with 3 in a row that helped knot the game at 102. But he doesn’t score, nor does he get to the line.

With Kobe manning Wade up, Flash shot 5-17 from the field, hit 3-3 freethrows for 13 points and had 8 dimes to 3 turnovers. When Trevor Ariza or Sasha Vujacic was covering Wade, Flash was 5-5 from the field, 3-4 from the line for 14 points and had one assist and no turnovers.

Basically, Kobe forced Wade, pretty much all by his lonesome (I mean, he did get help defense) to become a distributor while he was guarding him. On the flipside, Kobe was constantly seeing double teams, and while Flash did guard Kobe throughout the game, Kobe saw Marion down the stretch.

So, while the final box score heavily favors Flash, it was Mamba who was the silent killer and the main reason the Lakers were able to pull this game out. He played some mean, mean defense tonight, and was a huge reason why his team won despite his putrid 35 percent from the field.

More and more evidence that box scores barely tell half the story.

Above all, this game was a unique testament to the greatness of two players, displayed in completely different ways. Wade showed his brilliance by scoring half of his 27 points in the tiny window of 5 minutes when Kobe was not guarding him. Even more impressive is how Kobe was able to slow down the league's leading scorer to a 5-17 shooting performance in the other 35 plus minutes the two played together.

Eastern Thoughts

-I’m sick of Lebron talk. Sick of it. So here I go putting my two cents into the conversation. Danny Ferry should trade LBJ straight up for Dwyane Wade. An even better trade would be Shawn Marion, Wade and Marcus Banks for Lebron, Wally Szczerbiak, J.J. Hickson, and Eric Snow’s expiring contract. Miami sheds Banks’ horrible deal and adds a rookie big (something they direly need) with promise. They also free up a crapload of cap space for next season. The Cavs? They get even better with Marion and Wade replacing Lebron. And, for the record, don’t think Wade would mind going to a contender. Don’t think he’ll be talking about how much he loves Chicago or sport a new pair of “Windy City” sneaks or make a whole media circus out of what may or may not happen in 2010. Pretty sure Flash will be 100 percent satisfied with his situation and go out and get another Finals MVP to add to his collection. Which reminds me, how many does Lebron have again?

-Accursed Derrick Rose. Was trying and trying and trying to figure out ways to spin the story to make O.J. Mayo more deserving of the ROY trophy this season. More points, more boards, more steals, better defender, and more minutes. Rose has a better PER, shooting percentage and assists numbers. In the end, it comes down to wins. It’s a tight race for sure, but the Eastern Conference has proven to be the more difficult conference so far this year, and Rose has his team at 7-8 while Mayo’s Grizz are at 4-10. Sure, Mayo’s playing on a team full of kids, but Rose has zero capable big men to play alongside. Huh, might’ve just proved Mayo’s more deserving after all.

-Big props to the UCLA kids this season. While some have struggled (Baron Davis, Russell Westbrook) others have shined brightly Trevor Ariza, Jordan Farmar, and to a certain extent, Kevin Love. Those are all West coast guys though, so I have to show love to Luc Richard Mbah a Moute who has helped the Bucks to a surprising 7-9 record without the help of Michael Redd who has been out with an ankle injury. Mbah a Moute has been the team’s defensive ace and is averaging 10 points and 7.6 rebounds.

-Too bad Ernie Grunfeld needed a scapegoat after doing a horrible job in creating zero cap flexibility with a ho-hum roster that, even if completely healthy, never had a legitimate shot at contending for a title. Farewell Eddie Jordan. You had the Wizards back on their way to respectability. Sure 1-10 sucks big time, but it's not your fault your starting center and supposed star player were both done before the season got going. But after an offseason that saw your GM give away $160 million to two players, one on the wrong side of 30 and the other an injury-prone loud mouth who has never won anything of significance, you have been shouldered with the blame. Farewell Ed. You'll land on your feet somewhere else.

If it weren’t for the Clippers, Grunfeld would be the worst GM in the Association. Hmm...fire Dunleavy...hire Eddie Jordan...

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!