What's Wrong with the Heat?

With their third straight loss in a row, including a 19-point drubbing by the Indiana Pacers (who now have a better winning percentage), the grand experiment with grouping three of the League's top ten players together on the Miami Heat appears to be reaching depths unforeseen by many in the media.

I expected some bumps in the road, but I figured the team would at least be exciting to watch. In fact, they’re quite boring outside the occasional Wade to Lebron or Lebron to Wade alley-oop. After watching several of their games this year, I’m noticing a couple of things.

First of all, it’s obvious that Wade and Lebron struggle when they aren’t dominating the ball. That’s about as “duh” of a statement as I can get. But, let’s really break it down.

Tonight against the Orlando Magic, at the 10-minute mark of the fourth quarter, Lebron subbed out for Zydrunas Ilgauskus and Wade came in for Jamaal Magloire. Over the course of the next four minutes, Wade dominated. After a Bosh three-point play, Wade had his hand in nearly every positive play—he got to the line and made a pair of freethrows, assisted on a Big Z jumper, assisted on an Eddie House three, burned Reddick baseline for a dunk, hit a running jumper and-one to put the Heat up 88-87. In a four-minute span, he carried the Heat to their first lead since the 4:50 mark of the first quarter.

As soon as the Heat took the lead, up from the bench came Lebron and I had a strong feeling that the Magic were going to win the game despite the Heat holding all the momentum.

Look, I’m not trying to make big sweeping statements. According to plus/minus, the Heat’s three best lineups all involve the big three.

But I’m convinced that Bosh and Lebron don’t know how to do “dirty work.” For the last couple of seasons, Lebron’s compiled wicked stats, flown in for momentum-shifting breakaway blocks, barreled his way to the hoop for monstrous dunks...he's basically been able to have all of the glory, all of the spotlight moments. But he’s always had others to do the dirty work. Anderson Varejao being the foremost, but also guys like Delonte West, Jamario Moon, Ben Wallace, Joe Smith. All of those guys set mean picks, grabbed offensive rebounds, played all-defense caliber defense (well, not Moon), showed on the pick and roll, took charges, etc.

This year's Heat don't really have that guy, especially now that Udonis Haslem is out for several weeks. Jamaal Magloire might have been that guy seven years ago, and he can do some damage in 15-minute spurts, but he’s not close to the same ilk as Varejao, Wallace or even Smith. And he certainly can’t do it for 25 minutes a night.

Instead, Lebron’s got Chris Bosh, another guy who’s never really done the dirty work, but more because he’s just not physically built to do so. Unlike Lebron, however, Bosh has not had a complimentary guy to do it for him (let alone four or five)—hence the inability to advance past the first round.

I had high hopes for Bosh (who has started to come around offensively thanks in part to Wade sitting out with injury) because he was the garbage man during the Beijing Olympics. He did all those little things that helped the team win and shot 70 percent basically because he was the recipient on pick and rolls and put backs.

He works beautifully on the pick and pop with Wade. But with Lebron on the floor, everything seems to grind to a terrible halt. Lots of Isos and standing around watching. While some of that has to be on coach Spoelstra, as the team's best player, Lebron has to take most of the, ahem, heat for this. He’s the only player who hasn’t changed his game at all. Sure, he’s giving the ball up a bit more so that Wade can dominate for a while, but he hasn’t really changed the way he goes about his game.

If he’s not the main focus of a play, he tends to float on the perimeter. With his strength and athleticism, he should be the ultimate version of Trevor Ariza when he’s playing off the ball. Instead, he’s averaging a career low in rebounds. The most damning sign of all is his 0.4 offensive rebounds per game. Lebron’s never been a great offensive rebounder mainly because he’s always been the guy creating offense, but now with Wade and Bosh attracting so much attention, there’s no reason why he shouldn’t be getting at the very least one offensive board per contest.

Besides, Wade has done that. He’s always been a great offensive rebounder despite also shouldering the burden of carrying teams (far less talented then Lebron has had). Wade is averaging 1.2 O-boards a game from the guard position and he gives up four inches and 45 pounds to Lebron. Wade is averaging more total boards than Lebron, more blocks (1.1 to LBJ's 0.6) and more fouls. All effort categories. All dirty work.

Not only that, but Wade also looked like he worked on his three-point shooting this offseason. He came out the gates sizzling hot hitting 11-26 before his current shooting slump where he's missed 18 of his last 19 attempts over his past six contests. The point is, he knew he was going to have to play off the ball and worked on his three-point shooting . In fact, the one three he made tonight was the one where he got his feet set and squared up—a spot up shot.

If the Heat want to be the best team in the league, and by all means, they should at least be the best starting five in the league with Carlos Arroyo playing out of his mind and Big Z at supreme efficiency, Lebron is going to have to take a page from Kobe’s playbook and become a firefighter. (Quick side note: Gotta love Arroyo for recognizing the opportunity of his lifetime and not shying from the moment. A career 44 percent shooter and 33 percent from beyond the arc, Arroyo is hitting at 50 and 64 respectively. Yeah, 64 from three).

What I mean by firefighter is Lebron’s going to have to be the guy who does whatever the team needs. Basically, Wade will orchestrate the offense and set everyone up while Bosh plays that ideal, complimentary scoring option. Lebron’s going to have to be the guy who fills in all of the gaps--the ultimate role player.

He’s going to have to drop the I’m-no-longer-Jordan-I’m-Magic schtick.

As I wrote a couple weeks ago, Lebron ain’t no Magic. The sooner he realizes this the faster the Heat will get on track. Lebron’s going to have to get his hands dirty. He’s going to have to start diving to the hoop for offensive rebounds instead of watching from the perimeter as Wade throws up a fadeway jumper. He’s going to have to take it upon himself to shut down the opposing team’s best player whether that’s Kobe or Dwight Howard. He’s going to have to start focusing more on his defense and less on his stats. With his freak athleticism and strength, stats will come. They might not be as pretty as they have been. His PER might not lead the league and he might not get many triple doubles, but dude has all the potential to be a consistent 5x5 threat every single night. On this team, there's no reason why he shouldn't average at least two blocks, two steals and two offensive boards a game.

No reason.

Do I think that’s going to happen? No. As evidenced by “The Decision” and his butt-hurt talk in its aftermath, Lebron is not lacking in pride and subsequent arrogance. I have no personal insight into his mind or his life or anything like that, but the fact he didn’t work on his game at all this summer shows me that he thinks he can be Lebron, simply add Wade and Bosh, and win it all.

Lebron’s going to have to change the most if he wants this to work. He’s the most talented player on the team, the most versatile and the most dominant. But that just means he’s the most suited to be the ultimate Trevor Ariza—the ultimate Scottie Pippen.

If and when Lebron gets his inner KG on, look out NBA.

Shrewd Customer?

Color me curious, but I think Bryant not opting out of his contract is a shrewd business move. Sure, there's talks of a three to four year extension, but that's not supposed to happen until later in July. While a lot of media are focusing more closely on Lamar Odom and Trevor Ariza (as they most certainly should be) I can't help but think that Kobe is using his position to leverage the Lakers. He wants the whole team back, and if he had opted out he would have distracted Lakers brass from pursuing Odom and Ariza (I mean, he would then become the number one priority for the Lakers). Also, if he worked out a new contract, he would be guaranteeing himself as a part of this franchise before knowing for sure if Ariza and Odom would be back. He seems to be back in love with the Lakers, but he remembers what happened last time he signed on the dotted line with promises of building a contender. Two straight years of Smush Parker and Kwame Brown. Kobe's learned from his past mistakes. With him only signed for one more season right now, the onus is on the Lakers to fork over the money for both Odom and Ariza, which would make Kobe happy, and would help solidify in his mind to sign that extension.

Dunk Contest: Blow it Up!

The Dunk Contest needs to be fixed. It seemed to be getting better (thanks J-Rich) but over the past two seasons there has been some questionable judgment from the judges that has unfortunately lead to questionable winners with gimmicky, but not dunk-champ-worthy dunks.

Here’s a great article that sort of covers the basis for today’s post written by Bethlehem Shoals of Sporting News.

He basically tears down this year’s competition, reducing Dwight Howard and Nate Robinson to “novelty acts” and then chastising the omission of Gerald Green.

Oh, and any world in which Gerald Green, inventor of THE BIRTHDAY CAKE, gets snubbed for this motley bunch is not one that values the Dunk Contest as I know it. Green can jump over anyone, has that perfect mix of agility and length to make his flight downright balletic, and comes up with crazy stuff. And he has managed to stick in the league and grow up a little.

“But my major beef is with the selection process. I don't know who comes up with the first three, or the fan fave options. I don't think, though, that it's the judges. And given what a miserable track record some have had for recognizing brilliance, seeing past the obvious, or even seeing what the heck was going on, it seems like they should be the ones consulted.” I agree wholeheartedly with the travesty of not inviting Gerald Green back into the fold. His ideas for dunks were great and his athleticism translates into eye candy.

I also agree that the selection process is horrible and that the judges are old and tired and miss some of the more subtle, yet beautiful to watch (especially in super-slo motion) dunks by lesser known players.

This point has been highlighted in recent years.

Exhibit A: Nate Robinson’s "win" over Andre Igoudala (who had the best dunk I’ve ever seen outside of Vince Carter’s whole contest) after the little dude tried to dunk it 50 times before finally getting it.

Exhibit B: Dwight Howard’s “Superman” dunk that was more like a Super lay-in and had nothing on Green’s cupcake dunk.

Both are prime examples of “star” power over actual ingenuity and execution.

Here’s what I think should be done.

First off, forget this four-player garbage. I miss the eight-player format. Better, yet, why not invite ten players? What about twelve? With that many participants, each player would only get a couple chances in the first round. This will limit the standing around and waiting. Keep the action moving.

Out of a field of 10 to 12 contestants, you’re going to get a lot of creativity. Sure, there will probably be some bad stuff too, but it will also add variety and cut down on watching a dude attempt one dunk for 45 minutes.

I’ve written about how much more athletic today’s NBA is then 10-15 years ago. Every team has at the very least an MJ-esque athlete (not player or talent, strictly athleticim-wise) on their roster. Some teams have two or three of these types of athletes.

Why not give some new blood a chance to shine? I mean, the NBA has already implied this very thing in the contest's “Rising Stars” moniker. Hell, why not give other guys who would otherwise never get to go to the All-Star festivities, not just newbies, an opportunity to participate?

For example, a five-year vet like Dahntay Jones, making $800,000. Dude’s got crazy hops, has thrown down some wicked dunks this season, why not give him 30 seconds to market himself to the fans, a chance to grab a bit of spotlight? Who knows, he might put on a show and give the Nugs more buzz when they travel.

I understand that the NBA is star-driven. That’s why Chris Paul gets awarded extra assists on official stat sheets and can initiate contact and still get the foul and Dwyane Wade can’t be touched, and K.G. can bark and wag fingers and tell everyone to go eff their mothers without getting T-d up, etc. etc.

But, due to this fact, the NBA should also be all about creating stars as well. While Gerald Green isn’t a star, he did sell a bunch of jerseys when he won the contest and put on a great show in the process.

Having a larger field will get more players into the competition, and give more fans reason to watch. It will also take pressure off of the contestants and allow them to just go out and try something. Think “safety in numbers.”

It might even attract some of the league’s biggest stars (Kobe, Wade, Lebron) to come out and try a dunk in the first round, knowing they won’t have to invest a whole mess of time or energy into the event. And if they do well, and the crowd wants them to keep going, they just might.

This year’s selection of Rudy Fernandez, Russell Westbrook and Joe Alexander is a fine starting point. The NBA could go a step further and run video highlights (using NBA trademarked game footage) during commercials of all of the would-be contestants so that the fans could vote their top 10-12 into the event.

We've already seen players trying to promote their all-star selections via youtube or myspace (Amare, Bosh, etc.), so why can't the NBA promote the dunk contest? The NBa coul run 20 second commercials on all the potential candidates so that the fans could decide and vote in who they want to see. This gets the causual fan interested and invested in the event as well. The league could even have the candidates (or the teams) themselves put together the highlight reels.

How fun would those commercials be? How excited about the dunk contest would you be watching 10 or 12 different commercials of the various potential dunk contestants?

Letting the fans have complete control over something superficial like the dunk contest is exactly what fan voting is about. Tracy McGrady and VC getting voted in as starters for the AS game simply based on their name is a travesty. But the dunk contest? Fan voting would be perfect. This would also eliminate the Bird Man and Bob Sura entries of years past.

Here’s a list of a bunch of guys who could be in the dunk contest, a lot of them from teams who probably won’t get much, if any representation during All-Star weekend (click on them to see their youtube highlights):

Wolves: Rodney Carney
Rockets: Von Wafer
Raptors: Joey Graham
Warriors: Anthony Randolph
Lakers: Trevor Ariza
Jazz: Ronnie Brewer
Wizards: Nick Young
Clippers: DeAndre Jordan
Heat: Dorrell Wright
Bulls: Thabo Sefolosha

Come on NBA. The world is changing. The dunk contest needs to change too (and I'm not talking about the wheel of fortune crap either...)

Gasol

I know this sounds crazy. I've had some crazy ideas on here before...like, for the Suns to bring Steve Nash off the bench. Well, here's another crazy idea. How about instead of benching Odom, who is really good at help defense, how about bring Gasol off the bench. Gasol, much like Odom, is a selfless player. That's how he's been able to co-exist with Kobe so well. What he's not so good at, is well, tough defense. Bynum's struggled a bit, but bringing him off the bench would just add to his mounting frustration. Pau Gasol is the perfect facilitator type that the second unit, now without Jordan Farmar, can rely on to keep the offense flowing. Think Boris Diaw in 06. Plus, he's legit down low. Surround him with Vladimir Radmanovic, Trevor Ariza, and Sasha Vujacic, and that's a great bench unit. Odom plus Bynum plus Kobe plus Walton plus Fish makes for a tougher, more help happy defense that is also a bit more versatile than with Pau and Bynum. Just a thought.

Lebron's Got Great Teammates

I can’t get away from it because it has inundated our basketball news and the blogosphere and will continue to do so for the next two seasons. So, what the hell, I’ll just roll with this Lebron wanting out business.

Because he is not quick to stomp out the rumors, and in fact adds fuel to the media’s fire about wanting to leave, today, Westcoast Slant would like to dispel the myth that Lebron James does not play with good players.

Article after article, blog after blog talks about how Lebron’s team is nowhere near the talent-level of Kobe’s team and due to his out-of-this-world stats and inherent ability to “make his teammates better,” Lebron James is hands down the best player in the L.

We’ll skip his defensive shortcomings…huge blocks, like I’m sure you’ve seen on SportsCenter or something (www.youtube.com/watch?v=TUQxRptIPvM) are great fun to look at, but let’s not get confused with those kinds of blocks being signs of great defense. Sean Williams of the Nets was second in the league last year in blocks per 48 minutes and had some monster blocks due to his athleticism and length. This season, however, he can’t dislodge his butt from the end of the bench because of fouls and horrible defensive fundamentals.

Blocks are an overrated stat. It’s really an image thing and that goes back to the “image” of the Lakers being better than the Cavs.

Taking a charge is definitely not as pretty or exciting to watch as sending the opposition’s shot into the 8th row, but it’s always better than a blocked shot because it punishes the offender with a personal foul and a turnover. Blocks have their place (mostly the intimidation/embarrassment factor) and shot blockers definitely can act as deterrents (Mutumbo, Hakeem, etc.) that act as huge game changers…but blocks, in general, are not as valuable as taking charges. That’s why Anderson Varejao, though not flashy, is every bit as good a defender as Andrew Bynum. Just in a different way. But we’ll get to that in a second.

Now, I’m not saying the Lakers don’t have more upside talent (they are younger), but as far as production goes, this battle is closer than some might imagine.

Let’s dissect the two teams. Because Kobe and Lebron play different positions, it’s hard to exactly match up, player-for-player, position-by-position. However, there are certain skill sets that individuals bring to a team: shooting, defense, ball-movement, energy, etc. That’s how I’ve paired the players off.

Pau Gasol vs. Zydrunas Ilgauskus
Andrew Bynum vs. Anderson Verajao
Derek Fisher vs. Mo Williams
Vladimir Radmanovic vs. Wally Szczerbiak
Jordan Farmar vs. Delonte West
Sasha Vujacic vs. Daniel Gibson
Lamar Odom vs. Ben Wallace
Trevor Ariza vs. J.J. Hickson

Pau vs. Big Z
Basically, Big Z is the hairless, OG Pau (by like two years). He has a great 15-17 foot jump shot. He’s a face up, finesse-style 7-footer who can also play with his back to the basket. Great freethrow shooter for a big. An excellent offensive rebounder, but weaker on the D glass than you’d want from the tallest dude on the court. He gets a good number of blocks just because he’s so long. And he keeps his PER in the 18 to 22 range with a high water mark this season of 24.9. Pau’s a better passer and more athletic but he’s also lankier and doesn’t take up nearly the same amount of space. And he’s not quite perfected the offensive rebound like Big Z. Pau’s better, but it’s close. And, Lebron’s had Big Z for all six years. Kobe hasn’t even played a full season with Spaniard—it just seems like they’ve been balling together since they were kids.

AB vs. AV
Real talk. Anderson Varejao’s ceiling is the floor to Andrew Bynum’s two-story house, but in the here and now, they are both equally effective. Varejao is annually in the top 10 for offensive fouls drawn and is a beast on defense in ways that Bynum has not even begun to learn. He’s fantastic at showing on screens, making him great against the pick-and-roll, is the energizer bunny in the hustle department and controls the glass. Bynum’s got length and the intimidation factor going for him, but he’s 21, has never played a full season, and still seems to be a little bit too concerned with his scoring touches. Bynum’s got better box score numbers, but this is a tie.

Fish and Mo
Statistically, this one isn’t even close. Intangible-wise, it’s a wash. While last season, I would have argued that Fisher’s influence was worth at least 8 wins (6 in fact), this year, with everyone buying into Kobe’s leadership, that Fish intangible loses some of its luster. He’s putting up nearly identical numbers as last year, but shooting 2-point shots a whole lot worse. Mo’s playing worse than last year too (more on that tomorrow), but his presence is much like what Fish brought to the Lakers last year and his numbers are far and away superior.

Farmar and West
Again, this isn’t about upside. Farmar, at 22, would seem to have the brighter future. In the here and now, Delonte is playing out of his mind. He’s shooting an insane 51 percent from the field and 44 percent from beyond the arc for a whopping 64 percent TS% (true shooting). J-Far brings energy and floor leadership off the bench, but he’s shooting poorly. This one’s really close despite the stat disparity. Farmar’s importance as the second unit’s go-to scorer and floor general can’t be measured, and if they were getting equal minutes I’d sway to Farmar, but Delonte’s been HUGE this year. Edge has got to go to him.

Vlad Rad and Wally World
This comparison is pretty straightforward. The numbers are nearly identical across the board, so, we’ll have to go with more advanced stats. Wally’s PER 14.68 trumps Vladi’s 12.25. Wally’s 1.1 WS also trumps Vladi’s 0.6. Wally’s 105 and 124 offensive and defensive ratings are better than Vladi’s 97 and 100.

Machine and Boobie
They do the same thing, except one is a feisty defender while the other is a decent passer. Both signed to pretty decent money extensions this off-season. While both have struggled to live up to the money, no question the Machine has been better, though if Boobie could play against OKC, Golden State, and the Knicks every night, than he’d money.

LO and Big Ben
Both of these guys don’t necessarily fill up the box score to be effective. Their games are both predicated on things that box scores don’t show. Wallace is an aging defensive ace, who has regained some of his lost form from a year ago. He’s swatting nearly 2 shots a game (again, a bit overrated) but is rebounding much better than he has in two years. Odom has seen his minutes reduced and has taken on a sixth man role, but he’s been quietly putting together a stellar season. He gets the nod because he makes the Lakers second unit starter-quality, especially considering the starters OKC, Memphis, and Washington are throwing out there.

Riza and Hix
Trevor Ariza by a mile right now. But if Hickson can continue to improve on his game and bring energy off the bench, he could fill a very similar role that Ariza has on the Lakers. Right now, Trevor’s the Lakers MVP in my humble opinion.

The rest of the Lakers bench is better, but of the dudes that actually get PT, the talent disparity and the level of production is nearly equal. Tomorrow we’ll continue with this conversation and focus on how Kobe and Lebron do or do not “make their teams better.”

Eastern Thoughts

-I’m sick of Lebron talk. Sick of it. So here I go putting my two cents into the conversation. Danny Ferry should trade LBJ straight up for Dwyane Wade. An even better trade would be Shawn Marion, Wade and Marcus Banks for Lebron, Wally Szczerbiak, J.J. Hickson, and Eric Snow’s expiring contract. Miami sheds Banks’ horrible deal and adds a rookie big (something they direly need) with promise. They also free up a crapload of cap space for next season. The Cavs? They get even better with Marion and Wade replacing Lebron. And, for the record, don’t think Wade would mind going to a contender. Don’t think he’ll be talking about how much he loves Chicago or sport a new pair of “Windy City” sneaks or make a whole media circus out of what may or may not happen in 2010. Pretty sure Flash will be 100 percent satisfied with his situation and go out and get another Finals MVP to add to his collection. Which reminds me, how many does Lebron have again?

-Accursed Derrick Rose. Was trying and trying and trying to figure out ways to spin the story to make O.J. Mayo more deserving of the ROY trophy this season. More points, more boards, more steals, better defender, and more minutes. Rose has a better PER, shooting percentage and assists numbers. In the end, it comes down to wins. It’s a tight race for sure, but the Eastern Conference has proven to be the more difficult conference so far this year, and Rose has his team at 7-8 while Mayo’s Grizz are at 4-10. Sure, Mayo’s playing on a team full of kids, but Rose has zero capable big men to play alongside. Huh, might’ve just proved Mayo’s more deserving after all.

-Big props to the UCLA kids this season. While some have struggled (Baron Davis, Russell Westbrook) others have shined brightly Trevor Ariza, Jordan Farmar, and to a certain extent, Kevin Love. Those are all West coast guys though, so I have to show love to Luc Richard Mbah a Moute who has helped the Bucks to a surprising 7-9 record without the help of Michael Redd who has been out with an ankle injury. Mbah a Moute has been the team’s defensive ace and is averaging 10 points and 7.6 rebounds.

-Too bad Ernie Grunfeld needed a scapegoat after doing a horrible job in creating zero cap flexibility with a ho-hum roster that, even if completely healthy, never had a legitimate shot at contending for a title. Farewell Eddie Jordan. You had the Wizards back on their way to respectability. Sure 1-10 sucks big time, but it's not your fault your starting center and supposed star player were both done before the season got going. But after an offseason that saw your GM give away $160 million to two players, one on the wrong side of 30 and the other an injury-prone loud mouth who has never won anything of significance, you have been shouldered with the blame. Farewell Ed. You'll land on your feet somewhere else.

If it weren’t for the Clippers, Grunfeld would be the worst GM in the Association. Hmm...fire Dunleavy...hire Eddie Jordan...

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!