Not to Panic

Following an NBA team or any team can be an emotional roller coaster. It's a natural reaction to want immediate change when you see something not end up how you wanted it to end. So I can understand Mavericks fans who want Cuban to blow up this team. Despite their best efforts, they lost in five games to the Denver Nuggets.

Were the Nugs a better team then the Mavs in this post season? Of course. They won the series quite handily--though, if the Mavs don't clank several free throws and actually put a body on Melo in the final few minutes, this series would be heading back to Dallas for a game 6. So let's not overreact and say blow it up. Mavs fans need to cool out on the idea that the Nugs had vastly superior talent. They did have more talent, after all, Linas Kleiza saw 47 total minutes of action, none of which came in the decisive game 5.

But they didn't have waaay more talent. Let's not forget certain factors here.

First and foremost, Dirk Nowitzki was THE MAN. Hands down the best player in this series, no apologies to a lights out Carmelo. Melo had the benefit of playing with Billups who created a lot for everyone, including #15. Dirk, on the vast majority of his buckets, got them himself. Sure, Kidd was out there playing, but he was too busy passing up easy layup opportunities and instead spent his time jumping up in the air and trying to find someone to pass to as he was coming down. Everyone calls Dirk a choke artist because of his failures in the Finals and his early exit against the Warriors, but few people talk about his clutchness against the Spurs and the Suns and in playoffs in general. You can add this series to his admittedly impeccable post season resume. The Big German averaged 35 points, 11.6 rebounds, 4 assists, and a block on 53 percent shooting, 39 percent from three and 92 percent from the line. Don't get it twisted...those are Larry Bird-like numbers.

Another major factor is that Josh Howard was playing on two gimpy ankles. He gave it his best shot, even managed a gritty 14 points in the final game, but he was shooting threes with his arms and had absolutely no lift. For his career he's been around 35 percent from the great beyond. This series? He went 1-15. Also, a completely healthy Howard defensively slows Melo down a lot more than a gimpy Howard. I'm not saying he would have shut Melo down, not really possible anymore, but there's no way Melo averages 30 for the series if Howard is healthy.

Remember the job Howard did against Dwyane Wade in the 06 Finals? Now, before you start laughing and telling me that Wade was Jordan-esque in his one and only finals, look at some of the facts. Again, history has a weird way of being remembered. First of all, kid shot 97 free throws in six contests. 97! That's 16 attempts per game. That's only ten less than the Mavs averaged as a team. Sure, there are many benefits to playing alongside a healthy and motivated Shaquille O'Neal, but we all remember numerous phantom fouls called. And even with all the freebie points he was given, he only made 75 of them...for a ho-hum 77 percent. Sure, Wade averaged 35 points a game, but he shot below his season average (47 to 49 percent) and had two horrific games to start the series shooting 38 percent thanks to the defense of Howard. That kind of defense was sorely missed against the Nugs. Howard just couldn't rotate or move his feet like we know he's capable of. He'll be 30 next year, but he doesn't rely completely on his athleticism and could be solid for at least the remainder of his contract. Cuban was right not to trade him when everyone was clamoring for him to and he'll be right to keep him this off season too.

The disappearance of Jason Terry was perhaps the Mavericks greatest weakness. Dude couldn't find it in either round. After shooting 46 percent for the season, the Jet (you know, I am rescinding this name from Jason Terry...only Kenny Smith deserves the title)...Terry shot a putrid 39 percent.

So, if Howard is at full strength and Terry hits, uh, I dunno, 41 percent of his shots, then we're looking at a different series.

Still, are these Mavs good enought to win it all? Probably not. As Kevin Garnett has taught us...Anything is possible...but without a legitimate center, the Mavs are going to struggle to defend. Cuban said he's willing to pay the luxury tax if it makes sense. Says he wants to do something big this off season. Is he perhaps eyeing someone like Tyson Chandler? Or does he want a bigger fish like Chris Bosh? Marion, Odom, and Boozer will most likely be free agents. And don't sniff at Zaza Pachulia and Anderson Varejao. Either would instantly upgrade the Mavs defense, toughness and hustle.

Bottom line is, the Mavs don't need a vast overhall. If Kidd resigns for closer to the midlevel, then all this team really needs is a defensive-minded center. That might be easier to say then to achieve, but it's not like the squad is in complete shambles. It's unfortunate that injuries are a reality, because who knows how good this team would have been if Howard had been healthy.

Brief Notes

Kobe Bryant was not going to let Sunday's embarrassment carry over any longer. For 48 hours he had to hear about how his team was soft and how he was pissing away his best chance to win a title. How a soft team, an inconsistent team can't win it all.

Tuesday night, he was sure to make his point and polish it off with an exclamation. Still, this Rockets squad missed a lot of the same shots they were making Sunday. Sure, a lot more were contested, but there were still plenty of wide open looks that just didn't fall. Don't be surprised if the make it a game tomorrow.

Also, think how close the Mavs are from being tied up in this series instead of facing elimination. Two stinking freethrows in three tries.

Givers and Takers

The real culprits responsible for the Mavs' loss to the Nuggets Saturday...

This past weekend in the NBA gave viewers some pretty ugly basketball.

After a great game Friday night by the Lakeshow, the Purple and Gold, the supposedly "most talented" team in the playoffs, got out-hustled, out-muscled, out-rebounded, out-manned, out-balled, out-scored and flat out embarrassed against a team who's best player was just knocked out of the playoffs with a hairline fracture in his foot, who's second best player hasn't been playing since March, and who's third best player shot a putrid 4-19.

The "most talented team" in the playoffs lost by 12 after a "spectacular" fourth quarter from Pau Gasol who scored 18 of his 30 points in what commentator/former coach Jeff Van Gundy called a "meaningless quarter." After Sunday's loss, there is no such thing as Lakers pride. Even the most ardent, hardcore, biased Kobe lover couldn't defend his/her favorite team on anything that went on yesterday (except maybe on Kobe's subpar, but even-keeled game).

Throw in what was almost a game in Hotlanta Saturday (well, until the third) and that makes two awful 3-hour spots of television. This in spite of Lebron's eye-popping 47, 12, and 8 statline.

Then there were the buzzer beaters.

My cousin told me a few weeks ago that the Celtics were completely sunk without KG because they had the worst front court in the playoffs. This was WITH Miami still alive and kicking. I agreed they were sunk, but still thought they had enough to get out of the first round and knew Kendrick Perkins, at least, was waaaaaaaaaay better than all this "worst front court in the playoffs business." As much as I hate the dude for all his scowls and showoff two-handed dunks where he literally gets a foot off the ground, Perkins is averaging 12.5 points and 11.5 boards with nearly 3 blocks on 61 percent shooting. That is the opposite of sucking.

What we did wholeheartedly agree on was that Big Baby Davis sucked. I use "sucked" in the past tense, because the dude that KG made cry has been hot, especially in this series against the Magic, and seemed to put an exclamation point on this fact with his two clutch, Ray Allen-esque 17-footers in the closing seconds of Saturday's game. Talent-wise, he's still by far the worst power forward left in the playoffs, but effort-wise, and production-wise, he's out-playing Lamar Odom and Josh Smith (quite handily too) and for all the talk of how he can't gaurd Rashard Lewis, their statlines are eerily similar. Baby's posting an 18 and 7 with 1.3 steals on 46 percent shooting while Lewis is at 20, 7 and 1.3 on 48 percent shooting. Pretty damn good for a second round draft pick who was labeled as undersized and out-of-shape.

Finally, enough with the whining from Mavs fans about the last non-call in yesterday's game 3 loss. Was it a blown call? Absolutely. Was it the reason you lost? Hell no.

Hey, I’d be pissed for that non-call too. But, as I was watching the game unfold in the final minutes, watching Dirk and then Terry and then Howard all miss free throws, I couldn’t help but think…man, these missed free throws are going to come back and haunt them. If Dirk Nowitzki hits both of his freebies at the 5-minute mark, that would have put the Mavs up by 3 instead of 2. If Jason Terry hits both of his freethrows near the 2-minute mark, that would have put the Mavs up by 5 instead of 4. If Josh Howard makes both of his freebies at the 1:30 mark, that would have put the Mavs up by 4 instead of 3.

Any one of the Mavs three BEST players hits those freebies that the refs were giving to them, and the game either goes into overtime, or the Mavs win. Simple as that. Don’t blame the refs for that last non-call. The refs gave the Mavs plenty of opportunities to the tune of 49 free throws. The Mavs had their chances…three of them…from their three best players, and they all choked.

Ball game. Series.

The Lakers Got Talent?

The media and everyone across the United States believes the Lakers have the most talented team. They've got the all-star talent and finesse game of Pau Gasol. They've got the freak athleticism and length of the one in a million Lamar Odom. They've got the size and strength of Andrew Bynum. They've got a deep, talented bench. Blah Blah Blah Blah.

I don't see it.

I see Kobe Bryant, as a very close second best talent in the league, taking a soft team to 65 wins. Are there nights when they look like the most talented team? Sure. But if Gasol and Bynum and Odom were so talented, they wouldn't have needed Kobe to score 28 points a night.

No one in the world outside of Pau Gasol, can get Pau to make a wide open shot from fifteen feet. How many of those did he miss last night? No one in the world, except for Lamar Odom, can get him to make more than 1-6 from the charity stripe. No one in the world, not even Gary Vitti apparently, can keep Luke Walton healthy for any long stretch. And no one in the world, outside of Sasha Vujacic, Trevor Ariza and Derek Fisher can get them to make more than zero threes out of ten. How much more open does Kobe have to get his players?

I mean, not even Michael Jordan could clear an entire arena full of people and make the place feel like the practice floor.

Kobe tied for the team high in assists, had as many rebounds as Odom and Bynum combined, and had one less point than the combined offensive output of Gasol, Bynum and Odom. Tell me, how is this team so talented?

In fact, if we run down the rosters, outside of Kobe being the best player on either squad, it would be a hard case to make that the Lakers are more talented player for player than the Rockets, and this is a Houston team missing its supposed best player in Tracy McGrady.

Kobe's better than Shane Battier. No questions there. But the rest of the roster, if not a toss up, then it clearly favors the Rockets.

Aaron Brooks is better than Derek Fisher. Faster, better at getting to the hole.

Artest is far better than Ariza. Though less athletic, he's a better scorer and more well-rounded not to mention an elite defender.

Scola has been playing much better than a hobbled Bynum, and is a far more polished player anyway.

Yao is better than Pau. Just as good a shooter, but he's 7-6 and defends the basket through intimdation perhaps even better than Dwight Howard. I mean, Dwight has to jump to scare people, Yao just has to stand there.

And, even the Lakers vaunted bench doesn't seem to quite match up with the Rockets. Von Wafer is better than Sasha Vujacic. Kyle Lowry is better than Farmar or Brown. Odom, on any given night, could be the best player on either team and probably has Landry beat, but on any other given night, he could also be Mr. Invisible.

Luke Walton, while skilled, is the opposite of consistent whereas, with Chuck Hayes, you know exactly what you will get night in and night out. No question Hayes is the better player.

I've already run down a list comparing the Cavs and Lakers lineups. But, if you look at some of the other teams in the playoffs, the Lakers don't stack up much better against them either.

Kobe edges Melo, but Billups is far and away superior to any other guard on the Lakers. Nene's a lot closer to Pau than people think, especially considering what a beast he is on the defensive end. Kenyon Martin might give up a little to Odom. But, Dahntay Jones, a non-gambling Ariza, is at least a wash with the Lakers starting SF.

And the benches? J.R. Smith, way better than Sasha. Anthony Carter, much more consistent and savvy than Farmar or Brown. Linas Kleiza, a better shooter than Walton. Chris Anderson might end up being the Nuggets MVP for this series with Dallas seeing as how he's been so effective against Dirk. Needless to say, the Birdman's been way better than Bynum.

Right now, the Lakers would be favored in matchups against Dallas, Atlanta, Boston and perhaps Orlando in terms of overall talent.

The Lakers are clearly more talented than Dallas and Atlanta...period. But, if the Celtics had Kevin Garnett and the Magic had a healthy squad including Lee and Nelson, than the Lakers wouldn't be more talented than either of those teams.

In fact, the only reason the Lakers are the favorites is because of #24. I'll go deeper into this "The Lakes are the Deepest Most Talented Team" argument in the coming days. I still expect the Lakers to make the Finals, but it won't be because they have the most collective talent, it will be because they have the most talented player in the West.

Lopsided Trades and Round 2

With the Nuggets surging into the second round of the playoffs with their complete dismantling of the New Orleans Hornets, there's a lot of talk of how lopsided a deal the Iverson for Billups trade was. I've gone over the Pau for Kwame/Marc Gasol/Darrell Arthur/J Critt deal many times before in this blog and my others, so I'll just briefly recount why that wasn't such a bad deal for the Grizz.

The Grizz freed themselves of Pau's huge contract saving over $30 million, got back their conditional first round pick from the Wizards by trading Crittenton and added two starters in Marc Gasol, one of the best most consistent rookies in a deep rookie class, as well as the upside of Darrell Arthur. Depending on who they draft with their conditional first round pick, in a couple of years, the trade could look nearly even.

The same can be said about Iverson for Billups. Has Mr. Big Shot been Big for the Nugs? Of course he has. Is he the sole reason for their ascension (which, in all honesty was only four games better than last year in a conference riddled with key injuries: Chandler, Ginobili, Parker, Bynum, TMac, Boozer, Williams, Amare, Monta Ellis, Terry, Howard etc.)?

No way in hell.

A healthy Nene is just as big. The more than pleasant surprises of Dahntay Jones and Chris Anderson (who was second in the league in blocked shots despite only playing 21 minutes a game) and the continued health of Kenyon Martin have also been major contributing factors.

Everyone talks about how much better Billups has made this team, but few mention how Melo had his worst shooting percentage (44 percent) since his sophomore campaign after having a career year in that area (49 percent) last season playing alongside Iverson.

Also, the thing about trades is that year one only tells a fraction of the story. Shaq for Odom/Grant/Butler looked horrible at first, but it turned into Odom and Gasol which, from the way the Lakers are playing, looks to be even better than anything Shaq would be giving the Lakers right now. Similarly, Kidd for Harris is looking more and more like a pretty decent, as opposed to a horrifically awful, deal.

If the Pistons get Chris Bosh or Dywane Wade or Amare Stoudemire this off season or the next, they'd look pretty damn smart for trading for Iverson this season, in a year when they had little hope of beating the Celtics or Cavs. After Sunday's (May 26) inevitable thrashing, all that delicious AI salary, all $21 million of it, is no longer on their books.

On the flipside, the Nugs will have a hard time keeping this group together seeing as how Kleiza might be snagged away and Dahntay Jones and Chris Anderson are unrestricted free agents who were both making $750 grand. Those salaries are sure to at least triple, and for a team that was doing everything it could to get under the salary cap, those two vital cogs might not be back, especially if the Nugs get manhandled by the Lakers, if they even make it that far to begin with.

Let's not get it twisted. For all this new hype surrounding the Nugs, people are forgetting that they faced a hobbled New Orleans team that had absolutely no bench, and maybe 2/5ths of a starting five worth a damn.

The Mavs, meanwhile, faced a hobbled Spurs team, who was similarly without a bench (though, I'd take the Spurs bench in a heartbeat over the Hornets bench) and with or without key injured players. The Mavs, in their four convincing victories, won by an average margin of 13 points. That's against the 4-time champion Spurs, the best team of the new century.

I mean, if the Spurs had matched up against the Hornets, who would have been favored in that series? It would have been close, but I'm still picking the Spurs. I mean, what have the Hornets even really done? They have never made it past the second round. Parker is not quite Chris Paul, but he's close and even a hobbled Duncan is better than West. I'd also go with Pop over Scott.

All that to say that the Mavs played and beat a tougher opponent than the Nuggets and aren't getting nearly the hype the Nugs are because they only beat blew out the Spurs by 21 in their most lopsided victory.

So, for the Nugs to cruise through their first round series is a good sign of a team gelling at the right time, but a 58-point beating of an already beaten team does not convince me that the Nuggets are a vastly superior squad to the Mavericks (as Charles Barkley continued to state during last night's Inside the NBA). In fact, this Nuggets team could very much lose to an equally hot Mavericks squad.

And, if that's the case, then is this Denver team really worth $70 plus million? And if it isn't worth $70 million and doesn't have true championship aspirations, then wouldn't it have been better served to keep AI for one last season and aggressively pursue a player that could put them over the top in the West with the extra $21 million?

Don't judge the trades in their first season. I'd give them at least three years. Being a GM is about patience and planning as much as it is about being in the moment.

Round 2, as much as round 1 did, will show everyone how much influence the blockbuster trades of the past two seasons have had.

Men from the Boys

Loved this comment by Byron Scott,

"This is still pitty-pat basketball to me. This is not physical and aggressive basketball the way it was in the '80s and '90s. This is so watered down compared to then that it's unbelievable. I think Kobe (Bryant) said it best: some of the things that (Utah Coach) Jerry Sloan used to do and some of the things we did in the '90s, they wouldn't allow you to do now. From that standpoint, it's not really a physical game. I wish they would go back to some of those rules from the '90s. It would separate the men from the boys."

I think this comment is hilarious considering that if the game was played the way it was back in his day, Scott's best player, the supposed best point guard on the planet, Chris Paul, would not be nearly as good as he is.

I honestly believe that Paul is struggling so much in this year's playoffs because he's not getting the calls he was getting during the regular season. Outside of Dywane Wade's miracle finals where I'm pretty sure he got a foul called against the Mavs for the wind generated from one of the ref's whistles, the playoffs are a tougher, meaner, more physical beast. That's why Nash's Suns could never make it. That's why Nowitzki couldn't win. That's why the Lakers didn't win last year.

Tough, gritty teams, like the Spurs, like the 3peat Lakers, and like the Celtics, have been the champs.

Look, I'm not trying to take anything away from Paul's toughness. Pound for pound, he's probably the toughest guy in the league (would've said AI, but he quit, and quitters aren't tough). What I'm saying is that if you could grab and hold, hand check, clothesline guys without getting suspended for half a year, then Chris Paul, at 6 feet, 180, would get creamed.

Paul is great, maybe the best, at creating contact. Nine times out of 10 he's the one who initiates the contact to draw a whistle. He's a master at changing pace, then stopping on a dime to get guys to run into him, or driving hard to the basket and putting his shoulder (and elbows) into bigger defenders to get a whistle.

But, he's not getting those calls in the playoffs.

-Speaking of not getting calls, Mr. Kobe Bean Bryant needs to shut up. He bitches after every single non-call. In fact, I'm kind of tired of all the Lakers whining about non-calls. Play the game. Pau and Bynum scream after every play like they've been raped. Kobe often doesn't get back on defense because he's glaring at the ref. STOP moaning, get back on defense, and get the ball back.

-Back to the toughness aspect of the playoffs. With a healthy Kenyon Martin, a healthy Nene, a drug-free Birdman and a swapping of the Answer for Mr. Big Shot, the Nuggets have become a nasty defensive team. Can't say enough about the defensive swagger of Dahntay Jones either. Even Melo, and to a lesser extent J.R. Smith have bought into the defensive mindset, and this post season, it shows. It's shining even.

-Rajon Rondo, I apologize for saying you were only good because of Pierce, Ray Ray and K.G. Clearly, you are the Celtics best player right now. Rondo's averaging 24 points, 11.5 assists, 10.5 rebounds (yup, a trip dub) and 3.5 steals on 48.7 percent shooting while only turning it over 1.5 times. If the C's could've pulled out that first game (I'm looking at you and your bricked free throw Paul Pierce) then Rondo would be the unquestioned MVP of this postseason so far. And for those people who think the Celtics need to win this year or their window is closed, Rondo's name should be and will soon be up there with Deron Williams, Chris Paul and Tony Parker. Add him to KG, Jesus and the Truth? That's still the best team in the East, maybe in the League.

Beides, there's no gaurantee the Cavs will be just as good or even make it to the Conference Finals in the East next year. Big Z and Big Ben will be older, and there's a possibility Varejao won't come back. And if Blake Griffin is added to the Washington Wizards, look out for that team too. Yeah, you heard me right. The Wiz could be damn scary next year with a healthy roster and Blake Griffin.

-So much for the Hawks sweeping the Heat. Yeah, Wade had a great game last night. He hit 6-10 from beyond the arc (one of which was that crazy bank shot over two guys fading to his right about three feet beyond the line), but let's see if he or his team can repeat that performance three more times. I highly doubt the Heat are going to shoot 66 percent again. I say Hawks in 6.

-This story about Tracy McGrady and then this one from ESPN's Truehoop got me thinking about why Dywane Wade can't be put ahead of Kobe Bryant or Lebron James as far as best player goes. Health is definitely a skill and Bryant and James have proven they can stay healthy. Guys like Manu Ginobili and Tracy McGrady have or had the skill/talent to be considered the best in the game, but neither player had the genes or the sheer will power to stay off the injured reserve. I remember a time when it was a legitimate argument of whether T-Mac was better than Kobe. Now, that argument seems stupid and inane, but during that 02-03 season, it was close, especially seeing as how Kobe had Shaq and Mizzy had, er, Andrew DeClercq.

For all the advanced statistics that will tell me that so and so player has per 40-minute averages of this and a rebound rate of that, if he doesn't actually play 40 minutes a game for a full season, then I can't rank that player ahead of another player who does, just because that player is not as efficient.

So, right now, Bron Bron is the best player, Kobe the most well rounded and skilled.

Wade, he's like a slightly lesser version of each mixed together.

And while we're on the topic of best player, the MVP award will be handed out soon. All those Denver fans shouting for Chauncey Billups are looking pretty smart right now, especially considering how he's handled Paul in their matchup thus far. But, as much as people want to give credit solely to Chauncey, the remergence of Anderson along with a fully healthy Nene are equally responsible for the Nugs turnaround this year.

For those people who were touting Dwight Howard as an MVP candidate, no most valuable player fouls out of a must win home game in the playoffs and then watches from the bench as his team wins anyways--winning behind the shooting stroke of a rookie no less. Orlando's in more trouble than I think they're willing to admit.

Making a Livingston

The OKC Thunder have just signed former Clipper lottery pick Sean Livingston to a multi-year deal. Great pickup in my opinion. Livingston has been playing in the NBA Developmental League for the Tulsa 66ers. Though not eye-popping, his numbers are pretty good: 9.5 points, 6.0 assists and 3.5 rebounds in 11 games.

Why I like this move, despite the tremendous play of Kyle Weaver and Thabo Sefalosha of late, is that in spite of creating a sort of potential logjam at the guard spots, it is a low risk, high reward situation. Livingston, a former #4 pick in the draft, was touted as a baby Magic coming out of high school. While those lofty expectations will most assuredly never be met, the kid's got plenty of potential. He's also a 6-7 point guard who can play and defend all three positions. Nobody really talks about his importance to that Clippers team that won 47 games and made it to the second round of the playoffs in 2005-06. But after coming back from an early season back injury, Livingston was second on the team in assists and filled the backup point guard role as well as filled in for the injured Corey Maggette. In the postseason, he was even better averaging 7.5 points, 4.7 rebounds and 4.8 assists on 47 percent shooting in 27 minutes over 12 games.

Of course, there are two major knocks on the kid. One, he's injury prone: lower back stress reaction, torn cartilage in his right shoulder, dislocated right knee cap, and of course this horrific accident where he tore the ACL, PCL, MCL and lateral meniscus in his left knee. The most games he's ever played 61.

The other, is one he shares with Russell Westbrook. Neither can shoot a lick. Still, Westbrook is 20 years old and has the rest of his career to improve his shot. With a healthy Livingston, Westbrook can play like a shooting guard, but guard the oppositions point guard and Livingston has the versatility and length to cover 1-3. Livingston also brings a much needed asset on this team, the ability to pass. With a career 2.35 assist-to-turnover ratio, he would rank number two on the team by a mile (After Ear Watson, who, if it wasn't blatantly clear before, the writing is most definitely on the wall with this acquisition, ditto for Atkins). And his A/To ratio has trended upward all three seasons he's played, from 2 to 2.5 to finally 2.55 in his final season with the Clippers. That would put him in the top 20 in the league, whereas, right now, outside of Watson, the team doesn't have a top 50 A/To player.

And then there's that potential. Before his season-ending, nearly career-ending injury, Livingston was shooting 47 percent and averaging 9.3 points, 5.1 assists, 3.4 rebounds, 1.09 steals and 29.8 minutes while garnering that very nice 2.54 assist-to-turnover ratio. And, right now, today, the kid is only 24 years old.

Again, nice potential pick up by the Thunder.