Season Previews 09-10 Edition "Nuggets"

Denver Nuggets

I’m not going to outright say that Denver is going to take a step back, I’m just leery of hyping up last year's success. While they’ll be good, contender is a bit of a stretch for my vocabulary. I honestly think they’re not going to be any better, and more likely than not, slightly worse than last year.

For as dominant of a finish as this team had to the regular season, it only improved by four games over the previous season. So I get that Chauncey Billups brought with him stability and consistency at the point guard position, but adding a healthy Nene and the energy and shot-blocking/altering ability of Chris Andersen off the bench was just as big for the team. All this “most lopsided trade in the history of the sport” is so far overblown, it’s become tiresome. AI wasn’t the anti-Christ and Billups wasn’t the Savior.

Look, I’m not trying to diminish the impact that Billups had on the overall culture of the squad, his leadership and ability to effectively run an offense are clearly better than Allen Iverson’s, who is a natural-born shooting guard.

But to give all the credit to Billups is like giving all the credit to Kobe Bryant or to Lebron James or Dwight Howard—it’s just so, unbasketball-like. A variety of different things, including the Billups acquisition, allowed the Nugs to make their run.

For starters, Nene had a terrific season two years ago, before injury put him down. At 26, he has clearly been a player on the rise, so his career 08-09 season had more to do with his maturing and remaining healthy than Billups’ influence. Mr. Big Shot really didn’t have all that much influence on Birdman’s game, outside of the occasional lob and all the missed shots that made for offensive rebounding opportunities.

True, culture change can be a huge difference. Billups initiating the offense, actually looking for Nene as a first option or swinging the ball over to Smith for the three, those little things help make a basketball team flow. But, looking back, not sure the culture changed all that much. I mean, J.R. Smith was and continues to be a knucklehead. Kenyon Martin continued to lose his cool, pick up Ts, etc., and ultimately, the Nugs choked and slunk away when the pressure was on just like they had when AI was on board.

Furthermore, when one really sits down and evaluates the Nuggets playoff run, they’ll see that they faced a severely crippled Hornets team and a Mavs squad playing over its head with arguably its second best player (Josh Howard) gamely playing on one leg. Even still, in game three, if Dirk Nowitzki or Howard or Jason Terry hit a couple of free throws, or Melo doesn’t hit that three, the series could have been easily 2-1 instead of 3-0, and then, who knows how it would have ended up?

Just like the Lakers didn’t dominate the Magic who were equal in talent (if only Jameer had been healthy…), the Nugs didn’t dominate the Mavs, a significantly worse team (last year) in terms of talent and health. To me, that speaks a lot more about how Denver measures up then the pyrite shine of a western conference finals showing and a two seed in the injury-depleted west.

With that long-winded intro, we get into this year’s squad. As with all teams, health will play a major factor in the success or failure of the 2009-10 Nuggets. While some teams, like the Mavs, Lakers and Blazers can ably withstand injuries, the Nuggets do not have that luxury. In addition, many of the players that are being counted on to remain healthy have a history of injury and/or suspension. Case in point, Smith will already miss seven games to start the season because of suspension and had some questionable Twitter posts this summer that caught the ire of the public.

As for injuries, in the four prior to last season, Nene had missed nearly two complete seasons and in the other two averaged less than 60 games. Kenyon Martin, who has survived micro-fracture knee surgery on both knees has averaged about 68 games per year, excluding the year he played in only two contests. Backing up Nene and Martin is Chris Andersen, who was kicked out of the league for testing positive for a “drug of abuse” which defined by the NBA includes cocaine, PCP, meth and acid. All of these drugs take money to support and the Birdman just signed a new five-year deal worth nearly $26 million. While all indications point towards him remaining clean, it only takes one slip-up to be right back nose deep in drug addiction.

The only other bigs on the roster are Johan Petro and Malik Allen and if Petro is the first big off your bench, you aren’t a contender, at least not this season.

As for the backcourt, Billups is one year older, and he seemed to tire in the playoffs. The drafting of Ty Lawson and the retaining of Anthony Carter is just what the doctor ordered. Lawson tore up summer league. Take that for what it’s worth, but he does have a track record as a winner with UNC. He also has the perfect point guard to learn from in Billups and to a certain extent Anthony Carter, both who have maintained a workmanlike attitude and use veteran smarts to level the playing field in their favor. Lawson excels when he has weapons around him, and, well, the Nugs supply is not as abundant as last year. In fact, with Smith most likely moving into the starting lineup, Lawson might have to emulate his Summer League run where he averaged 17 points a game.

When Smith returns from suspension and gets inserted into the starting shooting guard spot, projected starter Arron Afflalo will be the two for the second team. While he was a good get and can emulate a lot of the things that Jones brought to the table at a younger and cheaper price, he can't do what Smith does. What could happen, and might be good (if Smith remains content with a sixth man role) is if Afflalo can win that starter's gig during Smith's suspension. We'll see how Afflalo plays and what George Karl wants to do.

Speaking of the bench, or lack there of, one thing to watch out for is who backs up Carmelo Anthony. Linas Kleiza’s burn was spotty in the playoffs, but during the regular season, dude played in all 82 and averaged 22 minutes a game. The only other small-forward type left on the team is Renaldo Balkman, and while his hustle and athleticism will work well in transition, unless he suddenly learned how to shoot outside of five feet at even a decent clip this summer, Kleiza’s overall game and outside shooting are going to be sorely missed.

If the team ends up signing Desmond Mason, who still has some of that dunk-contest winning leaping ability, his lack of any semblance of an outside shot (that goes in) will not be the answer either. In fact, the team would be better off just playing the 25-year-old Balkman for all the little things he contributes that Mason doesn’t.

It’s not all doom and gloom though. Melo will be primed and ready to bounce back from a down year. He absolutely murdered in the playoffs, averaging 27, 6 and 4 while shooting 45 percent (would have been even better but he faltered against the Lakers) and if that is any indication of where he’ll be next season, the Nugs could push the 55-win plateau. Of course, when he does average 27 a game, Billups supporters will point to it and say how much Chauncey has helped Melo mature and completely neglect to acknowledge that Melo averaged 29 points playing with Iverson. But, whatever.

If Nene stays on the court for 75 plus games and Martin plays 70 and Birdman and Smith don’t get suspended (anymore), and Melo rises back up to a top ten NBA player, the Nuggets will have a championship caliber starting five. But their almost inevitable fall from last year's heights will be because of the salary cap and Stan Kroenke's reluctance to pay it. A weakened, inexperienced bench pushes the Nugs back to the middle of the pack.

Of course, if the bench somehow develops, like Petro suddenly blossoms, Lawson makes a run for rookie of the year and Afflalo comes up huge, a championship could be in sight.

But in reality, I just don’t think this team has the depth to make a legit run because the bench has been significantly downgraded while a lot of other Western powers have upgraded. Plus, that’s a lot of “ifs” to be counting on. And iffy ifs at that.

Any extended injury to Nene, Melo, Billups, Martin, and/or Smith, and the Nuggets will struggle to win 45 games in the uber-competitive Western Conference.

Lopsided Trades and Round 2

With the Nuggets surging into the second round of the playoffs with their complete dismantling of the New Orleans Hornets, there's a lot of talk of how lopsided a deal the Iverson for Billups trade was. I've gone over the Pau for Kwame/Marc Gasol/Darrell Arthur/J Critt deal many times before in this blog and my others, so I'll just briefly recount why that wasn't such a bad deal for the Grizz.

The Grizz freed themselves of Pau's huge contract saving over $30 million, got back their conditional first round pick from the Wizards by trading Crittenton and added two starters in Marc Gasol, one of the best most consistent rookies in a deep rookie class, as well as the upside of Darrell Arthur. Depending on who they draft with their conditional first round pick, in a couple of years, the trade could look nearly even.

The same can be said about Iverson for Billups. Has Mr. Big Shot been Big for the Nugs? Of course he has. Is he the sole reason for their ascension (which, in all honesty was only four games better than last year in a conference riddled with key injuries: Chandler, Ginobili, Parker, Bynum, TMac, Boozer, Williams, Amare, Monta Ellis, Terry, Howard etc.)?

No way in hell.

A healthy Nene is just as big. The more than pleasant surprises of Dahntay Jones and Chris Anderson (who was second in the league in blocked shots despite only playing 21 minutes a game) and the continued health of Kenyon Martin have also been major contributing factors.

Everyone talks about how much better Billups has made this team, but few mention how Melo had his worst shooting percentage (44 percent) since his sophomore campaign after having a career year in that area (49 percent) last season playing alongside Iverson.

Also, the thing about trades is that year one only tells a fraction of the story. Shaq for Odom/Grant/Butler looked horrible at first, but it turned into Odom and Gasol which, from the way the Lakers are playing, looks to be even better than anything Shaq would be giving the Lakers right now. Similarly, Kidd for Harris is looking more and more like a pretty decent, as opposed to a horrifically awful, deal.

If the Pistons get Chris Bosh or Dywane Wade or Amare Stoudemire this off season or the next, they'd look pretty damn smart for trading for Iverson this season, in a year when they had little hope of beating the Celtics or Cavs. After Sunday's (May 26) inevitable thrashing, all that delicious AI salary, all $21 million of it, is no longer on their books.

On the flipside, the Nugs will have a hard time keeping this group together seeing as how Kleiza might be snagged away and Dahntay Jones and Chris Anderson are unrestricted free agents who were both making $750 grand. Those salaries are sure to at least triple, and for a team that was doing everything it could to get under the salary cap, those two vital cogs might not be back, especially if the Nugs get manhandled by the Lakers, if they even make it that far to begin with.

Let's not get it twisted. For all this new hype surrounding the Nugs, people are forgetting that they faced a hobbled New Orleans team that had absolutely no bench, and maybe 2/5ths of a starting five worth a damn.

The Mavs, meanwhile, faced a hobbled Spurs team, who was similarly without a bench (though, I'd take the Spurs bench in a heartbeat over the Hornets bench) and with or without key injured players. The Mavs, in their four convincing victories, won by an average margin of 13 points. That's against the 4-time champion Spurs, the best team of the new century.

I mean, if the Spurs had matched up against the Hornets, who would have been favored in that series? It would have been close, but I'm still picking the Spurs. I mean, what have the Hornets even really done? They have never made it past the second round. Parker is not quite Chris Paul, but he's close and even a hobbled Duncan is better than West. I'd also go with Pop over Scott.

All that to say that the Mavs played and beat a tougher opponent than the Nuggets and aren't getting nearly the hype the Nugs are because they only beat blew out the Spurs by 21 in their most lopsided victory.

So, for the Nugs to cruise through their first round series is a good sign of a team gelling at the right time, but a 58-point beating of an already beaten team does not convince me that the Nuggets are a vastly superior squad to the Mavericks (as Charles Barkley continued to state during last night's Inside the NBA). In fact, this Nuggets team could very much lose to an equally hot Mavericks squad.

And, if that's the case, then is this Denver team really worth $70 plus million? And if it isn't worth $70 million and doesn't have true championship aspirations, then wouldn't it have been better served to keep AI for one last season and aggressively pursue a player that could put them over the top in the West with the extra $21 million?

Don't judge the trades in their first season. I'd give them at least three years. Being a GM is about patience and planning as much as it is about being in the moment.

Round 2, as much as round 1 did, will show everyone how much influence the blockbuster trades of the past two seasons have had.

Stand out West Coasters

Here’s a look at some of the West’s most outstanding players that haven’t gotten much pub.

John Salmons
Dude has been great when given the opportunity. He’s shooting 48.7 percent, posting 18 points while dishing out 4 dimes and reeling in 4 boards. He came up huge against Phoenix and even bigger against San Antonio, but the Kings ended up losing those two contests each by 2 points. If not for a fourth quarter collapse against Phoenix and several botched opportunities against the Spurs, the Kings would be looking at a 6-1 win streak.

O.J. Mayo
Too bad nobody else (okay, save you Marc Gasol) can shoot the rock worth a damn on the Grizzlies in the early going. If Rudy Gay were shooting anywhere near his career norms, this team would have at least 2 more wins. The Grizz lost by 5 against the Kings, Phoenix, and Milwaukee. In those games, Gay has shot 40 percent, with a .235 percent against Denver where the team lost by 10. In those same games, Mayo is shooting 50 percent. As it stands, for the month of November, Mayo has been filling up the stat sheet, shooting 48 percent, with 23 ppg, 2.6 apg, 4.4 rpg, and 1.3 spg. Add to that deadeye marksmanship from beyond the arc (45%), and he’s hands down been the West’s best rook, and is neck and neck with Derrick Rose for the league’s best.

Rudy Fernandez
Unless of course you consider this guy’s efficiency. Sporting a rookie high 21 PER, Mr. Fernandez has been stellar. He’s hit 45 percent of his shots and his 3s and is shooting 94 percent from the line. Throw in a steal, 2 assists and 3 boards, and he’s the perfect game changer for the Blazers off the bench. Plus, he's so much fun to watch.

Roger Mason
Nobody expected Parker to join Ginobili on the injured reserve, but Roger Mason has stepped up to the challenge of trying to replace them. Shooting a blistering 47 percent from beyond the arc, the journeyman guard has given the Spurs some much needed perimeter scoring and ballhandling. He hit the game winner against the Clippers last night and is looking for his shot. And when his shot hasn’t been falling, he’s found other ways to contribute. Didn't give this guy much love when the Spurs signed him, thought it was appropriate to give credit where credit is due. Another solid signing by San Antonio.

Andris Biedrins
My man. Yup. Dude has been transcendent and a big reason the Warriors aren’t a laughingstock. The hype is all around undrafted rook Anthony Morrow right now (37 and 11 will do that) and the money’s being thrown at Stephen Jackson ($28 million), but the leader of this team in terms of playing ability has been AB. Leading the league in rebounds (15 per) and remaining in the top 20 in FG percentage (53) while boosting his atrocious free throw percentage north of 60 has resulted in a career year for the Latvian. Can’t mess with 17 ppg, 15 rpg, 2 apg,1.5 bpg and a sparkling 22.10 PER. He’s turned into Dr. Slantedstein’s monster all by his lonesome.

Shaquille O’Neal
The Big Diesel has been playing great. He’s also been pushing Rockets to the floor and leveling Pistons. All the while amassing only fines—no suspensions yet. His 1.27 blocks lead the Suns (that’s actually kind of pathetic) and he’s second on the team in scoring. He’s even averaging 2 dimes. All this while shooting a stellar 59 percent. He’s been a big reason why the Suns sport the West’s second best record. Now if only he could avoid back-to-backs the rest of the season.

Nene
Maybe it’s the quality of the opponents (Memphis, Minny, Charlotte, Dallas) that might curb onlookers’ enthusiasm for a 4-1 stretch this past week and a half. But that 9-point win in Boston was impressive no matter how poorly Doc Rivers thinks his team is playing. Credit the addition of Chauncey Billups, but don’t sleep on Mr. Mono-Name. Only taking 9.2 shots per contest is a crime for his production, because, unlike every other starter on his team who is well below the 45 percent mark, Nene is sizzling at 64 percent. He’s also throwing in nearly 2 steals and 2 blocks per contest. The rebounding isn’t great, but the steals and blocks show that he’s making things happen. Key reason, especially with a team in flux, why the Nuggets are looking more and more like playoff material (they just need to add some height and they’ll be set).

Westside Connection Pt. 2

-Clippers got their first win and guess who played 30 minutes? Eric Gordon. He got some time and, oh my god, he shot 50 percent and hit 3-4 from beyond the arc. Sure, he wasn’t the only reason the team got the monkey off their back, Baron did have 22 and 10 and Camby added 14 rebounds and 2 blocks. But, this is the team that we should see more and more. The one that will have the most success. Ricky Buckets still can’t seem to find his shot. And, Cat? Cuttino Mobley still got 33 minutes, but put up only 8 shots. I really don’t hate Mobley. He got some time at SF because Thornton, who had a good game, was limited by foul trouble. The team held the Mavs (minus Josh Howard) to 92 points. The defense is starting to jell, and the Clips are learning how to play with each other. The Kings, Warriors, Spurs and Thunder are the upcoming games...all very winnable. The Spurs were struggling with Tony Parker playing as the best player in the league. They’ll be without him for a month, so the Clips should have more than enough to get by San Antonio. In fact, the brutal part of their early schedule is out of the way. After the Thunder, the Clips travel to play a worse-than-expected Philly team, and Mike Dunleavy should be plenty fired up to win that game. Then they’ve got New Jersey, New Orleans, Denver and Miami. They could realistically go 7-2 which would put them back at .500. It’s going to be an uphill battle for them the rest of the way, but Baron helped lead a less talented team to the brink of the playoffs last year. Still think this team could win 45-48 games.


-The Grizzlies had a disappointing second half against Denver, a great deal of it because O.J. Mayo went stone cold after being scalding hot dropping 20 points in the first quarter where he shot 8-9 with 3-3 from beyond the arc. He still ended with 31, but only had 5 in the second half. The team just won’t be able to win if Rudy Gay shoots 4-17. Just won’t happen. One problem the team has is that Gay and Mayo fall in love with their jumper too much. Both players need to get to the basket more or work the ball inside to Marc Gasol. Gasol can’t play 40 minutes and only shoot the ball 4 times. And the jumpshot-itis is not just confined to the team’s two stars. Everyone on the roster jacks up way too many jumpshots—you just can’t win consistently like that. Even still, they held a high scoring Denver team under their season average as they’ve done with every team they’ve played this year. Defense is keeping them in it. They’re sitting at 3-4 on the season, but, tell me one person who thought they would have as many wins as the Spurs and Mavericks combined? Love Darrell Arthur’s game. A bit like a bruiser version of Trevor Ariza. They just make things happen. Ditto with Kyle Lowry. The point guards just need to learn to shoot the three. If and when that happens, this team will get a whole lot better. Q Ross was a good pickup for this team. He and Greg Buckner come off the bench and offer great defense.

-Denver looks a lot more balanced now with Chauncey, even though dude has yet to find his shot. 2-13 is putrid for any player. But the 16, 6, 10 and 3 steals is very nice. Part of the reason he couldn’t find the hoop was due to the pressure he was seeing from Mayo and Lowry and whoever, but if Chauncey could’ve hit four more shots, this game wouldn’t have been as close as it was. J.R. Smith hasn’t taken to Billups as fast as I thought he would. But Renaldo Balkman and Nene are loving him. Melo too, though he missed some absolute gimmes including a wide-open two-handed jam. Denver’s defense looks a lot better though. A lot better. They’ve got someone who can actually play defense at the one. Once Chauncey gets more comfortable with his shot and K-Mart comes back, this team will start to climb back into the race in the Northwest, though the rest of their schedule this month is tough. They’ve got the Cavs, Celtics, Lakers, Hornets and Houston, and, though people might laugh at me, I’m going to put the Clippers into the equation as well. Don't let their 1-6 record fool you. The Clips are a good team. Denver's got an uphill battle going forward, but they've added defense to a still potent offense. They are not as flashy, but they are definitely a better team. If Antonio McDyess wasn't such a baby, he could really help this squad out.

Westside Connection Pt. 1

Westside Connection will be posts that highlight a few different teams each week. Here's the first installment featuring the Clippers and the Nuggets.

-Denver, with their trade for Chauncy Billups, have boosted themselves up into the playoffs, especially considering the Clippers’ dreadful start, Portland’s injury to Greg Oden, and San Antonio looking like they have a big 2 and that’s it. Chauncy Billups is exactly what the Nugs need. He is selfless, a real point who gets others involved, and one who can muscle opposing guards and play way better defense at the one than Denver has seen in years. Plus, he will get the ball to Melo, J.R. Smith, and Nene, so the team will stop giving Kenyon Martin 12 shots per game. K-Mart is best as a finisher. Let Chaunce be the initiator. The team even has a decent bench now, with Linas Kleiza, Chris Anderson, Renaldo Balkman and Anthony Carter. You can even throw in Cheik Samb, who should get some minutes with Steven Hunter's knee being messed up.

-Another tough loss for the Clippers tonight. They played, for the first 3 quarters, as I had envisioned them playing when they made their roster overhaul. They held the high-scoring Lakers to only 71 points over the first 36 minutes. They played slowed down, grind-it-out defense. Marcus Camby got 7 boards and 4 blocks…in 16 minutes. He and Kaman with Baron (3 steals) is a formidable trio on defense. The rest of the team is shaping up too. Al Thornton, by the way, looks like the real deal on offense. He’s taken another step towards improvement. He’s got a pretty consistent, though admittedly ugly-looking fadeaway jumpshot that, when he shoots it, you look and think, “Damn, that’s ugly, no way that’s going…” and then he nails it. Mike Taylor is greased lightening. All he needs is a chance to, gasp, play more. 7 and 4 with only a single turnover in 12 minutes is better than anything Jason Hart could hope to do on his best day.

-The main problems for the team are that Baron hasn’t found his shot yet, they’ve played two whole games together, and that Mike Dunleavy doesn’t know how to utilize the talent he has on his team. He’s totally misused Ricky Davis.

-Come to think about it, I’m about to call for Mike Dunleavy’s head. Cat Mobley getting 39 minutes? Really? I mean, really? He shot 4-11 and actually improved his overall shooting percentage to 39 percent. He’s at 33 percent from beyond the arc. He’s sporting a 0.5 assist to turnover ratio, a nifty little 9.75 PER and jacking up nearly 14 shots per game. I don’t know what Eric Gordon has done, or if Dunleavy just has some sort of prejudice against athletic wings who get to the hole (Maggette), but EG should be playing. Period. No question. Who cares if the team struggles with him out there? They’re 0-5 anyway and Eric can’t possibly do any worse than Mobley. Plus, there’s plenty of upside. Gordon’s a solid defender, so there won’t be too much drop off there. What he brings to the table is the ability to actually shoot the freaking ball. He can rain threes from anywhere—which would open up the middle for Kaman and Camby to go to work instead of allowing opposing defenders just cram the middle. Thornton has improved his 3 (hit 2 of 3 tonight) but the team needs floor spacing. Gordon would provide that. Plus, he’s the future, and Mobley is not. I hope they are showcasing Cat in the hopes of trading him, but at the rate he’s “producing” the Clips would be better off sitting him and letting his rapidly fading rep of a savvy veteran do the talking.

-Uh…pretty much ditto for Tim Thomas. Though, while I’m sure DeAndre Jordan would bring some WOW dunks, he might look completely lost out there. Then again, pot-smoking Darrell Arthur is playing well out in Memphis, so why not roll the dice on the upside? What have they got to lose…More games?

-Check my Lakers blog for a Lakers update www.nflfootballonline.com/dodgerblue15/weblog/5230/how-does-kobe-be-better-than-mj.html