Season Previews 09-10 Edition "Nuggets"

Denver Nuggets

I’m not going to outright say that Denver is going to take a step back, I’m just leery of hyping up last year's success. While they’ll be good, contender is a bit of a stretch for my vocabulary. I honestly think they’re not going to be any better, and more likely than not, slightly worse than last year.

For as dominant of a finish as this team had to the regular season, it only improved by four games over the previous season. So I get that Chauncey Billups brought with him stability and consistency at the point guard position, but adding a healthy Nene and the energy and shot-blocking/altering ability of Chris Andersen off the bench was just as big for the team. All this “most lopsided trade in the history of the sport” is so far overblown, it’s become tiresome. AI wasn’t the anti-Christ and Billups wasn’t the Savior.

Look, I’m not trying to diminish the impact that Billups had on the overall culture of the squad, his leadership and ability to effectively run an offense are clearly better than Allen Iverson’s, who is a natural-born shooting guard.

But to give all the credit to Billups is like giving all the credit to Kobe Bryant or to Lebron James or Dwight Howard—it’s just so, unbasketball-like. A variety of different things, including the Billups acquisition, allowed the Nugs to make their run.

For starters, Nene had a terrific season two years ago, before injury put him down. At 26, he has clearly been a player on the rise, so his career 08-09 season had more to do with his maturing and remaining healthy than Billups’ influence. Mr. Big Shot really didn’t have all that much influence on Birdman’s game, outside of the occasional lob and all the missed shots that made for offensive rebounding opportunities.

True, culture change can be a huge difference. Billups initiating the offense, actually looking for Nene as a first option or swinging the ball over to Smith for the three, those little things help make a basketball team flow. But, looking back, not sure the culture changed all that much. I mean, J.R. Smith was and continues to be a knucklehead. Kenyon Martin continued to lose his cool, pick up Ts, etc., and ultimately, the Nugs choked and slunk away when the pressure was on just like they had when AI was on board.

Furthermore, when one really sits down and evaluates the Nuggets playoff run, they’ll see that they faced a severely crippled Hornets team and a Mavs squad playing over its head with arguably its second best player (Josh Howard) gamely playing on one leg. Even still, in game three, if Dirk Nowitzki or Howard or Jason Terry hit a couple of free throws, or Melo doesn’t hit that three, the series could have been easily 2-1 instead of 3-0, and then, who knows how it would have ended up?

Just like the Lakers didn’t dominate the Magic who were equal in talent (if only Jameer had been healthy…), the Nugs didn’t dominate the Mavs, a significantly worse team (last year) in terms of talent and health. To me, that speaks a lot more about how Denver measures up then the pyrite shine of a western conference finals showing and a two seed in the injury-depleted west.

With that long-winded intro, we get into this year’s squad. As with all teams, health will play a major factor in the success or failure of the 2009-10 Nuggets. While some teams, like the Mavs, Lakers and Blazers can ably withstand injuries, the Nuggets do not have that luxury. In addition, many of the players that are being counted on to remain healthy have a history of injury and/or suspension. Case in point, Smith will already miss seven games to start the season because of suspension and had some questionable Twitter posts this summer that caught the ire of the public.

As for injuries, in the four prior to last season, Nene had missed nearly two complete seasons and in the other two averaged less than 60 games. Kenyon Martin, who has survived micro-fracture knee surgery on both knees has averaged about 68 games per year, excluding the year he played in only two contests. Backing up Nene and Martin is Chris Andersen, who was kicked out of the league for testing positive for a “drug of abuse” which defined by the NBA includes cocaine, PCP, meth and acid. All of these drugs take money to support and the Birdman just signed a new five-year deal worth nearly $26 million. While all indications point towards him remaining clean, it only takes one slip-up to be right back nose deep in drug addiction.

The only other bigs on the roster are Johan Petro and Malik Allen and if Petro is the first big off your bench, you aren’t a contender, at least not this season.

As for the backcourt, Billups is one year older, and he seemed to tire in the playoffs. The drafting of Ty Lawson and the retaining of Anthony Carter is just what the doctor ordered. Lawson tore up summer league. Take that for what it’s worth, but he does have a track record as a winner with UNC. He also has the perfect point guard to learn from in Billups and to a certain extent Anthony Carter, both who have maintained a workmanlike attitude and use veteran smarts to level the playing field in their favor. Lawson excels when he has weapons around him, and, well, the Nugs supply is not as abundant as last year. In fact, with Smith most likely moving into the starting lineup, Lawson might have to emulate his Summer League run where he averaged 17 points a game.

When Smith returns from suspension and gets inserted into the starting shooting guard spot, projected starter Arron Afflalo will be the two for the second team. While he was a good get and can emulate a lot of the things that Jones brought to the table at a younger and cheaper price, he can't do what Smith does. What could happen, and might be good (if Smith remains content with a sixth man role) is if Afflalo can win that starter's gig during Smith's suspension. We'll see how Afflalo plays and what George Karl wants to do.

Speaking of the bench, or lack there of, one thing to watch out for is who backs up Carmelo Anthony. Linas Kleiza’s burn was spotty in the playoffs, but during the regular season, dude played in all 82 and averaged 22 minutes a game. The only other small-forward type left on the team is Renaldo Balkman, and while his hustle and athleticism will work well in transition, unless he suddenly learned how to shoot outside of five feet at even a decent clip this summer, Kleiza’s overall game and outside shooting are going to be sorely missed.

If the team ends up signing Desmond Mason, who still has some of that dunk-contest winning leaping ability, his lack of any semblance of an outside shot (that goes in) will not be the answer either. In fact, the team would be better off just playing the 25-year-old Balkman for all the little things he contributes that Mason doesn’t.

It’s not all doom and gloom though. Melo will be primed and ready to bounce back from a down year. He absolutely murdered in the playoffs, averaging 27, 6 and 4 while shooting 45 percent (would have been even better but he faltered against the Lakers) and if that is any indication of where he’ll be next season, the Nugs could push the 55-win plateau. Of course, when he does average 27 a game, Billups supporters will point to it and say how much Chauncey has helped Melo mature and completely neglect to acknowledge that Melo averaged 29 points playing with Iverson. But, whatever.

If Nene stays on the court for 75 plus games and Martin plays 70 and Birdman and Smith don’t get suspended (anymore), and Melo rises back up to a top ten NBA player, the Nuggets will have a championship caliber starting five. But their almost inevitable fall from last year's heights will be because of the salary cap and Stan Kroenke's reluctance to pay it. A weakened, inexperienced bench pushes the Nugs back to the middle of the pack.

Of course, if the bench somehow develops, like Petro suddenly blossoms, Lawson makes a run for rookie of the year and Afflalo comes up huge, a championship could be in sight.

But in reality, I just don’t think this team has the depth to make a legit run because the bench has been significantly downgraded while a lot of other Western powers have upgraded. Plus, that’s a lot of “ifs” to be counting on. And iffy ifs at that.

Any extended injury to Nene, Melo, Billups, Martin, and/or Smith, and the Nuggets will struggle to win 45 games in the uber-competitive Western Conference.

No Thanks AI

I had mild interest in this upcoming WNBA season, that was until Candace Parker got pregnant and missed the first four or five weeks. Now that the Sparks are pretty much out of contention with Lisa Leslie on the shelf with a knee injury, and Parker is “working” her way back into shape, my interest is once again below zero.

The good news, the NBA has continued to give to me despite its season ending several weeks ago. Movement around the league this off-season has been exciting with plenty of intrigue (Shaq traded to Cavs, Carter traded to Magic, Artest signing with Lakers), back-stabbing (Turkoglu leaving Portland for Toronto) and straight up conniving (Orlando’s plan to sign Bass and match the offer sheet on Gortat leaving the Mavs with nothing).

Recent news has Allen Iverson talking with the Clippers. I hate this idea. First and foremost, the Clippers don’t need a starting shooting guard or point guard. Their starting backcourt is solid with two pit bulls in Baron Davis (when healthy and motivated, which, with a Chinese shoe deal coming out this year, I’ve heard he is both) and rookie sensation Eric Gordon. Iverson has already publicly stated that he sees himself as a starter and reinforced that claim by sitting out the rest of last season when his starting job was put up for grabs in Detroit.

The Clippers likewise, have a bevy of talent down low. Obviously Blake Griffin has a bright future, but so too does second year big man DeAndre Jordan. Chris Kaman, when healthy, is a pretty formidable center and Marcus Camby, when healthy, is a rebounding machine and block artist.

That leaves the small forward spot as the lone weak link on the team (there’s some issues with back up shooting guard, but that’s for another post). The Clippers should be focusing their attention on finding a starter at the three and quit looking into filling seats via AI.

Filling seats won’t be a problem, especially in Los Angeles who love front-runners. All the Clips need to do is build a hard-working, exciting team that wins. Right now, they have the makings of exactly that.

Adding Iverson will ruin all of the wonderful things that have happened this off-season (getting the number one pick, shedding Randolph and his horrible attitude and contract). How many jerseys does Sterling think Iverson will sell if he’s on a one year contract? I mean, how many jerseys did he sell as a Piston last year? Whatever that number is, it isn’t enough to justify bringing him here. If this were two years ago? I would have been jumping for joy at this notion. But with the additions of Griffin and Gordon, Iverson’s place is on some other team.

I know that Quentin Richardson is coming to town (hopefully the Zach Randolph trade does not fall through), but the small forward spot is still the Clippers most glaring weakness. I honestly believe that Al Thornton’s best position is coming off the bench, or starting for some other team not named the Clippers. Thornton never met a shot he didn’t like, and unfortunately, his favorite shots are fade-away jumpshots from just within the three point line.

I think offering part or all of the mid-level to one or two of the following four players would serve the Clippers much better than signing AI for the full midlevel.

Linas Kleiza: He brings toughness and versatility to the small forward spot, not to mention three-point shooting that is sorely lacking on this team. He’s big, a decent defender and can get to the hole when he’s the third or fourth option. The bad thing, he’s restricted, so if the Clips lowball him, the Nugs would probably match. In this economy, he might not be worth the full midlevel, though, last year, $5 million for him would seem about right.

Marquis Daniels: Had a breakout year starting in place of Mike Dunleavy Jr. averaging nearly 14 points, 2 assists and 4.5 rebounds on 45 percent shooting. He’s versatile enough to play three positions (though, point guard is not a strong suit). I think he’d fit in nicely switching between the 2 and 3 and adding scoring punch off the bench. The problem with him is that he can’t shoot threes.

Jamario Moon: The Heat will probably sign Moon, but he is super athletic and was a good running mate with Dwyane Wade and would make a good running mate on this athletic team. Drawbacks for him include a head that seems detached from thinking far too many times than should be acceptable for a 29-year-old and a questionable work ethic.

Ronald Murray: Murray was up for sixth man of the year last year, brings a veteran presence, and can back up either guard spot. He brings a good scoring punch that the Clips can use coming off the bench.

Another option I thought would work nicely for the Clips is to trade Chris Kaman and Al Thornton to the Houston Rockets for Shane Battier and Brian Cook. Battier brings several things to the table that are exactly what the Clips need.

First and foremost is intelligence. No offense to Dunleavy (okay, a little), but this team has never been considered cerebral. Battier is like the brain of a brain. Battier also is a proven winner (Duke, Memphis, Rockets). Don’t laugh at that Memphis inclusion. When he played for the Grizzlies, they made the playoffs. As soon as he left, they were one of the worst teams in the league. That’s not putting all the success on him, but it speaks volumes to his presence and importance. Battier would also give the Clippers a lockdown perimeter defender. He’s always worked best with a shot-blocking big behind him, and Camby and to a lesser extend DeAndre Jordan bring blocks in spades. Finally, leadership is sorely needed on this team, and though Battier isn’t vocal, he and Artest were the co-captains of last year’s Rockets squad that were the only team to push the Lakers to seven games in last year’s playoffs.

Brian Cook can be looked at as a big who can shoot outside jumpshots, or he can be looked at as a $3 million expiring contract. Either way, his inclusion in the trade can be of some benefit if employed correctly.

Losing Al Thornton is no big loss. He’s a shoot-first player on a team that doesn’t need any more scorers. He brings nothing else to the table. He can’t play defense. He doesn’t move the ball. He doesn’t rebound. But on the Rockets, who are in need of scorers thanks to injuries to Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady, he’ll fit in nicely taking the place of Von Wafer. Kaman also gives the Rockets a young, big center who will benefit greatly from playing with the vastly underrated Luis Scola, the athleticism of Carl Landry, and the toughness of Chuck Hayes.