Season Previews 09-10 Edition "Nuggets"

Denver Nuggets

I’m not going to outright say that Denver is going to take a step back, I’m just leery of hyping up last year's success. While they’ll be good, contender is a bit of a stretch for my vocabulary. I honestly think they’re not going to be any better, and more likely than not, slightly worse than last year.

For as dominant of a finish as this team had to the regular season, it only improved by four games over the previous season. So I get that Chauncey Billups brought with him stability and consistency at the point guard position, but adding a healthy Nene and the energy and shot-blocking/altering ability of Chris Andersen off the bench was just as big for the team. All this “most lopsided trade in the history of the sport” is so far overblown, it’s become tiresome. AI wasn’t the anti-Christ and Billups wasn’t the Savior.

Look, I’m not trying to diminish the impact that Billups had on the overall culture of the squad, his leadership and ability to effectively run an offense are clearly better than Allen Iverson’s, who is a natural-born shooting guard.

But to give all the credit to Billups is like giving all the credit to Kobe Bryant or to Lebron James or Dwight Howard—it’s just so, unbasketball-like. A variety of different things, including the Billups acquisition, allowed the Nugs to make their run.

For starters, Nene had a terrific season two years ago, before injury put him down. At 26, he has clearly been a player on the rise, so his career 08-09 season had more to do with his maturing and remaining healthy than Billups’ influence. Mr. Big Shot really didn’t have all that much influence on Birdman’s game, outside of the occasional lob and all the missed shots that made for offensive rebounding opportunities.

True, culture change can be a huge difference. Billups initiating the offense, actually looking for Nene as a first option or swinging the ball over to Smith for the three, those little things help make a basketball team flow. But, looking back, not sure the culture changed all that much. I mean, J.R. Smith was and continues to be a knucklehead. Kenyon Martin continued to lose his cool, pick up Ts, etc., and ultimately, the Nugs choked and slunk away when the pressure was on just like they had when AI was on board.

Furthermore, when one really sits down and evaluates the Nuggets playoff run, they’ll see that they faced a severely crippled Hornets team and a Mavs squad playing over its head with arguably its second best player (Josh Howard) gamely playing on one leg. Even still, in game three, if Dirk Nowitzki or Howard or Jason Terry hit a couple of free throws, or Melo doesn’t hit that three, the series could have been easily 2-1 instead of 3-0, and then, who knows how it would have ended up?

Just like the Lakers didn’t dominate the Magic who were equal in talent (if only Jameer had been healthy…), the Nugs didn’t dominate the Mavs, a significantly worse team (last year) in terms of talent and health. To me, that speaks a lot more about how Denver measures up then the pyrite shine of a western conference finals showing and a two seed in the injury-depleted west.

With that long-winded intro, we get into this year’s squad. As with all teams, health will play a major factor in the success or failure of the 2009-10 Nuggets. While some teams, like the Mavs, Lakers and Blazers can ably withstand injuries, the Nuggets do not have that luxury. In addition, many of the players that are being counted on to remain healthy have a history of injury and/or suspension. Case in point, Smith will already miss seven games to start the season because of suspension and had some questionable Twitter posts this summer that caught the ire of the public.

As for injuries, in the four prior to last season, Nene had missed nearly two complete seasons and in the other two averaged less than 60 games. Kenyon Martin, who has survived micro-fracture knee surgery on both knees has averaged about 68 games per year, excluding the year he played in only two contests. Backing up Nene and Martin is Chris Andersen, who was kicked out of the league for testing positive for a “drug of abuse” which defined by the NBA includes cocaine, PCP, meth and acid. All of these drugs take money to support and the Birdman just signed a new five-year deal worth nearly $26 million. While all indications point towards him remaining clean, it only takes one slip-up to be right back nose deep in drug addiction.

The only other bigs on the roster are Johan Petro and Malik Allen and if Petro is the first big off your bench, you aren’t a contender, at least not this season.

As for the backcourt, Billups is one year older, and he seemed to tire in the playoffs. The drafting of Ty Lawson and the retaining of Anthony Carter is just what the doctor ordered. Lawson tore up summer league. Take that for what it’s worth, but he does have a track record as a winner with UNC. He also has the perfect point guard to learn from in Billups and to a certain extent Anthony Carter, both who have maintained a workmanlike attitude and use veteran smarts to level the playing field in their favor. Lawson excels when he has weapons around him, and, well, the Nugs supply is not as abundant as last year. In fact, with Smith most likely moving into the starting lineup, Lawson might have to emulate his Summer League run where he averaged 17 points a game.

When Smith returns from suspension and gets inserted into the starting shooting guard spot, projected starter Arron Afflalo will be the two for the second team. While he was a good get and can emulate a lot of the things that Jones brought to the table at a younger and cheaper price, he can't do what Smith does. What could happen, and might be good (if Smith remains content with a sixth man role) is if Afflalo can win that starter's gig during Smith's suspension. We'll see how Afflalo plays and what George Karl wants to do.

Speaking of the bench, or lack there of, one thing to watch out for is who backs up Carmelo Anthony. Linas Kleiza’s burn was spotty in the playoffs, but during the regular season, dude played in all 82 and averaged 22 minutes a game. The only other small-forward type left on the team is Renaldo Balkman, and while his hustle and athleticism will work well in transition, unless he suddenly learned how to shoot outside of five feet at even a decent clip this summer, Kleiza’s overall game and outside shooting are going to be sorely missed.

If the team ends up signing Desmond Mason, who still has some of that dunk-contest winning leaping ability, his lack of any semblance of an outside shot (that goes in) will not be the answer either. In fact, the team would be better off just playing the 25-year-old Balkman for all the little things he contributes that Mason doesn’t.

It’s not all doom and gloom though. Melo will be primed and ready to bounce back from a down year. He absolutely murdered in the playoffs, averaging 27, 6 and 4 while shooting 45 percent (would have been even better but he faltered against the Lakers) and if that is any indication of where he’ll be next season, the Nugs could push the 55-win plateau. Of course, when he does average 27 a game, Billups supporters will point to it and say how much Chauncey has helped Melo mature and completely neglect to acknowledge that Melo averaged 29 points playing with Iverson. But, whatever.

If Nene stays on the court for 75 plus games and Martin plays 70 and Birdman and Smith don’t get suspended (anymore), and Melo rises back up to a top ten NBA player, the Nuggets will have a championship caliber starting five. But their almost inevitable fall from last year's heights will be because of the salary cap and Stan Kroenke's reluctance to pay it. A weakened, inexperienced bench pushes the Nugs back to the middle of the pack.

Of course, if the bench somehow develops, like Petro suddenly blossoms, Lawson makes a run for rookie of the year and Afflalo comes up huge, a championship could be in sight.

But in reality, I just don’t think this team has the depth to make a legit run because the bench has been significantly downgraded while a lot of other Western powers have upgraded. Plus, that’s a lot of “ifs” to be counting on. And iffy ifs at that.

Any extended injury to Nene, Melo, Billups, Martin, and/or Smith, and the Nuggets will struggle to win 45 games in the uber-competitive Western Conference.

The Lakers Got Talent?

The media and everyone across the United States believes the Lakers have the most talented team. They've got the all-star talent and finesse game of Pau Gasol. They've got the freak athleticism and length of the one in a million Lamar Odom. They've got the size and strength of Andrew Bynum. They've got a deep, talented bench. Blah Blah Blah Blah.

I don't see it.

I see Kobe Bryant, as a very close second best talent in the league, taking a soft team to 65 wins. Are there nights when they look like the most talented team? Sure. But if Gasol and Bynum and Odom were so talented, they wouldn't have needed Kobe to score 28 points a night.

No one in the world outside of Pau Gasol, can get Pau to make a wide open shot from fifteen feet. How many of those did he miss last night? No one in the world, except for Lamar Odom, can get him to make more than 1-6 from the charity stripe. No one in the world, not even Gary Vitti apparently, can keep Luke Walton healthy for any long stretch. And no one in the world, outside of Sasha Vujacic, Trevor Ariza and Derek Fisher can get them to make more than zero threes out of ten. How much more open does Kobe have to get his players?

I mean, not even Michael Jordan could clear an entire arena full of people and make the place feel like the practice floor.

Kobe tied for the team high in assists, had as many rebounds as Odom and Bynum combined, and had one less point than the combined offensive output of Gasol, Bynum and Odom. Tell me, how is this team so talented?

In fact, if we run down the rosters, outside of Kobe being the best player on either squad, it would be a hard case to make that the Lakers are more talented player for player than the Rockets, and this is a Houston team missing its supposed best player in Tracy McGrady.

Kobe's better than Shane Battier. No questions there. But the rest of the roster, if not a toss up, then it clearly favors the Rockets.

Aaron Brooks is better than Derek Fisher. Faster, better at getting to the hole.

Artest is far better than Ariza. Though less athletic, he's a better scorer and more well-rounded not to mention an elite defender.

Scola has been playing much better than a hobbled Bynum, and is a far more polished player anyway.

Yao is better than Pau. Just as good a shooter, but he's 7-6 and defends the basket through intimdation perhaps even better than Dwight Howard. I mean, Dwight has to jump to scare people, Yao just has to stand there.

And, even the Lakers vaunted bench doesn't seem to quite match up with the Rockets. Von Wafer is better than Sasha Vujacic. Kyle Lowry is better than Farmar or Brown. Odom, on any given night, could be the best player on either team and probably has Landry beat, but on any other given night, he could also be Mr. Invisible.

Luke Walton, while skilled, is the opposite of consistent whereas, with Chuck Hayes, you know exactly what you will get night in and night out. No question Hayes is the better player.

I've already run down a list comparing the Cavs and Lakers lineups. But, if you look at some of the other teams in the playoffs, the Lakers don't stack up much better against them either.

Kobe edges Melo, but Billups is far and away superior to any other guard on the Lakers. Nene's a lot closer to Pau than people think, especially considering what a beast he is on the defensive end. Kenyon Martin might give up a little to Odom. But, Dahntay Jones, a non-gambling Ariza, is at least a wash with the Lakers starting SF.

And the benches? J.R. Smith, way better than Sasha. Anthony Carter, much more consistent and savvy than Farmar or Brown. Linas Kleiza, a better shooter than Walton. Chris Anderson might end up being the Nuggets MVP for this series with Dallas seeing as how he's been so effective against Dirk. Needless to say, the Birdman's been way better than Bynum.

Right now, the Lakers would be favored in matchups against Dallas, Atlanta, Boston and perhaps Orlando in terms of overall talent.

The Lakers are clearly more talented than Dallas and Atlanta...period. But, if the Celtics had Kevin Garnett and the Magic had a healthy squad including Lee and Nelson, than the Lakers wouldn't be more talented than either of those teams.

In fact, the only reason the Lakers are the favorites is because of #24. I'll go deeper into this "The Lakes are the Deepest Most Talented Team" argument in the coming days. I still expect the Lakers to make the Finals, but it won't be because they have the most collective talent, it will be because they have the most talented player in the West.

Westside Connection Pt. 2

-Clippers got their first win and guess who played 30 minutes? Eric Gordon. He got some time and, oh my god, he shot 50 percent and hit 3-4 from beyond the arc. Sure, he wasn’t the only reason the team got the monkey off their back, Baron did have 22 and 10 and Camby added 14 rebounds and 2 blocks. But, this is the team that we should see more and more. The one that will have the most success. Ricky Buckets still can’t seem to find his shot. And, Cat? Cuttino Mobley still got 33 minutes, but put up only 8 shots. I really don’t hate Mobley. He got some time at SF because Thornton, who had a good game, was limited by foul trouble. The team held the Mavs (minus Josh Howard) to 92 points. The defense is starting to jell, and the Clips are learning how to play with each other. The Kings, Warriors, Spurs and Thunder are the upcoming games...all very winnable. The Spurs were struggling with Tony Parker playing as the best player in the league. They’ll be without him for a month, so the Clips should have more than enough to get by San Antonio. In fact, the brutal part of their early schedule is out of the way. After the Thunder, the Clips travel to play a worse-than-expected Philly team, and Mike Dunleavy should be plenty fired up to win that game. Then they’ve got New Jersey, New Orleans, Denver and Miami. They could realistically go 7-2 which would put them back at .500. It’s going to be an uphill battle for them the rest of the way, but Baron helped lead a less talented team to the brink of the playoffs last year. Still think this team could win 45-48 games.


-The Grizzlies had a disappointing second half against Denver, a great deal of it because O.J. Mayo went stone cold after being scalding hot dropping 20 points in the first quarter where he shot 8-9 with 3-3 from beyond the arc. He still ended with 31, but only had 5 in the second half. The team just won’t be able to win if Rudy Gay shoots 4-17. Just won’t happen. One problem the team has is that Gay and Mayo fall in love with their jumper too much. Both players need to get to the basket more or work the ball inside to Marc Gasol. Gasol can’t play 40 minutes and only shoot the ball 4 times. And the jumpshot-itis is not just confined to the team’s two stars. Everyone on the roster jacks up way too many jumpshots—you just can’t win consistently like that. Even still, they held a high scoring Denver team under their season average as they’ve done with every team they’ve played this year. Defense is keeping them in it. They’re sitting at 3-4 on the season, but, tell me one person who thought they would have as many wins as the Spurs and Mavericks combined? Love Darrell Arthur’s game. A bit like a bruiser version of Trevor Ariza. They just make things happen. Ditto with Kyle Lowry. The point guards just need to learn to shoot the three. If and when that happens, this team will get a whole lot better. Q Ross was a good pickup for this team. He and Greg Buckner come off the bench and offer great defense.

-Denver looks a lot more balanced now with Chauncey, even though dude has yet to find his shot. 2-13 is putrid for any player. But the 16, 6, 10 and 3 steals is very nice. Part of the reason he couldn’t find the hoop was due to the pressure he was seeing from Mayo and Lowry and whoever, but if Chauncey could’ve hit four more shots, this game wouldn’t have been as close as it was. J.R. Smith hasn’t taken to Billups as fast as I thought he would. But Renaldo Balkman and Nene are loving him. Melo too, though he missed some absolute gimmes including a wide-open two-handed jam. Denver’s defense looks a lot better though. A lot better. They’ve got someone who can actually play defense at the one. Once Chauncey gets more comfortable with his shot and K-Mart comes back, this team will start to climb back into the race in the Northwest, though the rest of their schedule this month is tough. They’ve got the Cavs, Celtics, Lakers, Hornets and Houston, and, though people might laugh at me, I’m going to put the Clippers into the equation as well. Don't let their 1-6 record fool you. The Clips are a good team. Denver's got an uphill battle going forward, but they've added defense to a still potent offense. They are not as flashy, but they are definitely a better team. If Antonio McDyess wasn't such a baby, he could really help this squad out.