Season Previews 09-10 Edition "Nuggets"

Denver Nuggets

I’m not going to outright say that Denver is going to take a step back, I’m just leery of hyping up last year's success. While they’ll be good, contender is a bit of a stretch for my vocabulary. I honestly think they’re not going to be any better, and more likely than not, slightly worse than last year.

For as dominant of a finish as this team had to the regular season, it only improved by four games over the previous season. So I get that Chauncey Billups brought with him stability and consistency at the point guard position, but adding a healthy Nene and the energy and shot-blocking/altering ability of Chris Andersen off the bench was just as big for the team. All this “most lopsided trade in the history of the sport” is so far overblown, it’s become tiresome. AI wasn’t the anti-Christ and Billups wasn’t the Savior.

Look, I’m not trying to diminish the impact that Billups had on the overall culture of the squad, his leadership and ability to effectively run an offense are clearly better than Allen Iverson’s, who is a natural-born shooting guard.

But to give all the credit to Billups is like giving all the credit to Kobe Bryant or to Lebron James or Dwight Howard—it’s just so, unbasketball-like. A variety of different things, including the Billups acquisition, allowed the Nugs to make their run.

For starters, Nene had a terrific season two years ago, before injury put him down. At 26, he has clearly been a player on the rise, so his career 08-09 season had more to do with his maturing and remaining healthy than Billups’ influence. Mr. Big Shot really didn’t have all that much influence on Birdman’s game, outside of the occasional lob and all the missed shots that made for offensive rebounding opportunities.

True, culture change can be a huge difference. Billups initiating the offense, actually looking for Nene as a first option or swinging the ball over to Smith for the three, those little things help make a basketball team flow. But, looking back, not sure the culture changed all that much. I mean, J.R. Smith was and continues to be a knucklehead. Kenyon Martin continued to lose his cool, pick up Ts, etc., and ultimately, the Nugs choked and slunk away when the pressure was on just like they had when AI was on board.

Furthermore, when one really sits down and evaluates the Nuggets playoff run, they’ll see that they faced a severely crippled Hornets team and a Mavs squad playing over its head with arguably its second best player (Josh Howard) gamely playing on one leg. Even still, in game three, if Dirk Nowitzki or Howard or Jason Terry hit a couple of free throws, or Melo doesn’t hit that three, the series could have been easily 2-1 instead of 3-0, and then, who knows how it would have ended up?

Just like the Lakers didn’t dominate the Magic who were equal in talent (if only Jameer had been healthy…), the Nugs didn’t dominate the Mavs, a significantly worse team (last year) in terms of talent and health. To me, that speaks a lot more about how Denver measures up then the pyrite shine of a western conference finals showing and a two seed in the injury-depleted west.

With that long-winded intro, we get into this year’s squad. As with all teams, health will play a major factor in the success or failure of the 2009-10 Nuggets. While some teams, like the Mavs, Lakers and Blazers can ably withstand injuries, the Nuggets do not have that luxury. In addition, many of the players that are being counted on to remain healthy have a history of injury and/or suspension. Case in point, Smith will already miss seven games to start the season because of suspension and had some questionable Twitter posts this summer that caught the ire of the public.

As for injuries, in the four prior to last season, Nene had missed nearly two complete seasons and in the other two averaged less than 60 games. Kenyon Martin, who has survived micro-fracture knee surgery on both knees has averaged about 68 games per year, excluding the year he played in only two contests. Backing up Nene and Martin is Chris Andersen, who was kicked out of the league for testing positive for a “drug of abuse” which defined by the NBA includes cocaine, PCP, meth and acid. All of these drugs take money to support and the Birdman just signed a new five-year deal worth nearly $26 million. While all indications point towards him remaining clean, it only takes one slip-up to be right back nose deep in drug addiction.

The only other bigs on the roster are Johan Petro and Malik Allen and if Petro is the first big off your bench, you aren’t a contender, at least not this season.

As for the backcourt, Billups is one year older, and he seemed to tire in the playoffs. The drafting of Ty Lawson and the retaining of Anthony Carter is just what the doctor ordered. Lawson tore up summer league. Take that for what it’s worth, but he does have a track record as a winner with UNC. He also has the perfect point guard to learn from in Billups and to a certain extent Anthony Carter, both who have maintained a workmanlike attitude and use veteran smarts to level the playing field in their favor. Lawson excels when he has weapons around him, and, well, the Nugs supply is not as abundant as last year. In fact, with Smith most likely moving into the starting lineup, Lawson might have to emulate his Summer League run where he averaged 17 points a game.

When Smith returns from suspension and gets inserted into the starting shooting guard spot, projected starter Arron Afflalo will be the two for the second team. While he was a good get and can emulate a lot of the things that Jones brought to the table at a younger and cheaper price, he can't do what Smith does. What could happen, and might be good (if Smith remains content with a sixth man role) is if Afflalo can win that starter's gig during Smith's suspension. We'll see how Afflalo plays and what George Karl wants to do.

Speaking of the bench, or lack there of, one thing to watch out for is who backs up Carmelo Anthony. Linas Kleiza’s burn was spotty in the playoffs, but during the regular season, dude played in all 82 and averaged 22 minutes a game. The only other small-forward type left on the team is Renaldo Balkman, and while his hustle and athleticism will work well in transition, unless he suddenly learned how to shoot outside of five feet at even a decent clip this summer, Kleiza’s overall game and outside shooting are going to be sorely missed.

If the team ends up signing Desmond Mason, who still has some of that dunk-contest winning leaping ability, his lack of any semblance of an outside shot (that goes in) will not be the answer either. In fact, the team would be better off just playing the 25-year-old Balkman for all the little things he contributes that Mason doesn’t.

It’s not all doom and gloom though. Melo will be primed and ready to bounce back from a down year. He absolutely murdered in the playoffs, averaging 27, 6 and 4 while shooting 45 percent (would have been even better but he faltered against the Lakers) and if that is any indication of where he’ll be next season, the Nugs could push the 55-win plateau. Of course, when he does average 27 a game, Billups supporters will point to it and say how much Chauncey has helped Melo mature and completely neglect to acknowledge that Melo averaged 29 points playing with Iverson. But, whatever.

If Nene stays on the court for 75 plus games and Martin plays 70 and Birdman and Smith don’t get suspended (anymore), and Melo rises back up to a top ten NBA player, the Nuggets will have a championship caliber starting five. But their almost inevitable fall from last year's heights will be because of the salary cap and Stan Kroenke's reluctance to pay it. A weakened, inexperienced bench pushes the Nugs back to the middle of the pack.

Of course, if the bench somehow develops, like Petro suddenly blossoms, Lawson makes a run for rookie of the year and Afflalo comes up huge, a championship could be in sight.

But in reality, I just don’t think this team has the depth to make a legit run because the bench has been significantly downgraded while a lot of other Western powers have upgraded. Plus, that’s a lot of “ifs” to be counting on. And iffy ifs at that.

Any extended injury to Nene, Melo, Billups, Martin, and/or Smith, and the Nuggets will struggle to win 45 games in the uber-competitive Western Conference.

Not to Panic

Following an NBA team or any team can be an emotional roller coaster. It's a natural reaction to want immediate change when you see something not end up how you wanted it to end. So I can understand Mavericks fans who want Cuban to blow up this team. Despite their best efforts, they lost in five games to the Denver Nuggets.

Were the Nugs a better team then the Mavs in this post season? Of course. They won the series quite handily--though, if the Mavs don't clank several free throws and actually put a body on Melo in the final few minutes, this series would be heading back to Dallas for a game 6. So let's not overreact and say blow it up. Mavs fans need to cool out on the idea that the Nugs had vastly superior talent. They did have more talent, after all, Linas Kleiza saw 47 total minutes of action, none of which came in the decisive game 5.

But they didn't have waaay more talent. Let's not forget certain factors here.

First and foremost, Dirk Nowitzki was THE MAN. Hands down the best player in this series, no apologies to a lights out Carmelo. Melo had the benefit of playing with Billups who created a lot for everyone, including #15. Dirk, on the vast majority of his buckets, got them himself. Sure, Kidd was out there playing, but he was too busy passing up easy layup opportunities and instead spent his time jumping up in the air and trying to find someone to pass to as he was coming down. Everyone calls Dirk a choke artist because of his failures in the Finals and his early exit against the Warriors, but few people talk about his clutchness against the Spurs and the Suns and in playoffs in general. You can add this series to his admittedly impeccable post season resume. The Big German averaged 35 points, 11.6 rebounds, 4 assists, and a block on 53 percent shooting, 39 percent from three and 92 percent from the line. Don't get it twisted...those are Larry Bird-like numbers.

Another major factor is that Josh Howard was playing on two gimpy ankles. He gave it his best shot, even managed a gritty 14 points in the final game, but he was shooting threes with his arms and had absolutely no lift. For his career he's been around 35 percent from the great beyond. This series? He went 1-15. Also, a completely healthy Howard defensively slows Melo down a lot more than a gimpy Howard. I'm not saying he would have shut Melo down, not really possible anymore, but there's no way Melo averages 30 for the series if Howard is healthy.

Remember the job Howard did against Dwyane Wade in the 06 Finals? Now, before you start laughing and telling me that Wade was Jordan-esque in his one and only finals, look at some of the facts. Again, history has a weird way of being remembered. First of all, kid shot 97 free throws in six contests. 97! That's 16 attempts per game. That's only ten less than the Mavs averaged as a team. Sure, there are many benefits to playing alongside a healthy and motivated Shaquille O'Neal, but we all remember numerous phantom fouls called. And even with all the freebie points he was given, he only made 75 of them...for a ho-hum 77 percent. Sure, Wade averaged 35 points a game, but he shot below his season average (47 to 49 percent) and had two horrific games to start the series shooting 38 percent thanks to the defense of Howard. That kind of defense was sorely missed against the Nugs. Howard just couldn't rotate or move his feet like we know he's capable of. He'll be 30 next year, but he doesn't rely completely on his athleticism and could be solid for at least the remainder of his contract. Cuban was right not to trade him when everyone was clamoring for him to and he'll be right to keep him this off season too.

The disappearance of Jason Terry was perhaps the Mavericks greatest weakness. Dude couldn't find it in either round. After shooting 46 percent for the season, the Jet (you know, I am rescinding this name from Jason Terry...only Kenny Smith deserves the title)...Terry shot a putrid 39 percent.

So, if Howard is at full strength and Terry hits, uh, I dunno, 41 percent of his shots, then we're looking at a different series.

Still, are these Mavs good enought to win it all? Probably not. As Kevin Garnett has taught us...Anything is possible...but without a legitimate center, the Mavs are going to struggle to defend. Cuban said he's willing to pay the luxury tax if it makes sense. Says he wants to do something big this off season. Is he perhaps eyeing someone like Tyson Chandler? Or does he want a bigger fish like Chris Bosh? Marion, Odom, and Boozer will most likely be free agents. And don't sniff at Zaza Pachulia and Anderson Varejao. Either would instantly upgrade the Mavs defense, toughness and hustle.

Bottom line is, the Mavs don't need a vast overhall. If Kidd resigns for closer to the midlevel, then all this team really needs is a defensive-minded center. That might be easier to say then to achieve, but it's not like the squad is in complete shambles. It's unfortunate that injuries are a reality, because who knows how good this team would have been if Howard had been healthy.

The Lakers Got Talent?

The media and everyone across the United States believes the Lakers have the most talented team. They've got the all-star talent and finesse game of Pau Gasol. They've got the freak athleticism and length of the one in a million Lamar Odom. They've got the size and strength of Andrew Bynum. They've got a deep, talented bench. Blah Blah Blah Blah.

I don't see it.

I see Kobe Bryant, as a very close second best talent in the league, taking a soft team to 65 wins. Are there nights when they look like the most talented team? Sure. But if Gasol and Bynum and Odom were so talented, they wouldn't have needed Kobe to score 28 points a night.

No one in the world outside of Pau Gasol, can get Pau to make a wide open shot from fifteen feet. How many of those did he miss last night? No one in the world, except for Lamar Odom, can get him to make more than 1-6 from the charity stripe. No one in the world, not even Gary Vitti apparently, can keep Luke Walton healthy for any long stretch. And no one in the world, outside of Sasha Vujacic, Trevor Ariza and Derek Fisher can get them to make more than zero threes out of ten. How much more open does Kobe have to get his players?

I mean, not even Michael Jordan could clear an entire arena full of people and make the place feel like the practice floor.

Kobe tied for the team high in assists, had as many rebounds as Odom and Bynum combined, and had one less point than the combined offensive output of Gasol, Bynum and Odom. Tell me, how is this team so talented?

In fact, if we run down the rosters, outside of Kobe being the best player on either squad, it would be a hard case to make that the Lakers are more talented player for player than the Rockets, and this is a Houston team missing its supposed best player in Tracy McGrady.

Kobe's better than Shane Battier. No questions there. But the rest of the roster, if not a toss up, then it clearly favors the Rockets.

Aaron Brooks is better than Derek Fisher. Faster, better at getting to the hole.

Artest is far better than Ariza. Though less athletic, he's a better scorer and more well-rounded not to mention an elite defender.

Scola has been playing much better than a hobbled Bynum, and is a far more polished player anyway.

Yao is better than Pau. Just as good a shooter, but he's 7-6 and defends the basket through intimdation perhaps even better than Dwight Howard. I mean, Dwight has to jump to scare people, Yao just has to stand there.

And, even the Lakers vaunted bench doesn't seem to quite match up with the Rockets. Von Wafer is better than Sasha Vujacic. Kyle Lowry is better than Farmar or Brown. Odom, on any given night, could be the best player on either team and probably has Landry beat, but on any other given night, he could also be Mr. Invisible.

Luke Walton, while skilled, is the opposite of consistent whereas, with Chuck Hayes, you know exactly what you will get night in and night out. No question Hayes is the better player.

I've already run down a list comparing the Cavs and Lakers lineups. But, if you look at some of the other teams in the playoffs, the Lakers don't stack up much better against them either.

Kobe edges Melo, but Billups is far and away superior to any other guard on the Lakers. Nene's a lot closer to Pau than people think, especially considering what a beast he is on the defensive end. Kenyon Martin might give up a little to Odom. But, Dahntay Jones, a non-gambling Ariza, is at least a wash with the Lakers starting SF.

And the benches? J.R. Smith, way better than Sasha. Anthony Carter, much more consistent and savvy than Farmar or Brown. Linas Kleiza, a better shooter than Walton. Chris Anderson might end up being the Nuggets MVP for this series with Dallas seeing as how he's been so effective against Dirk. Needless to say, the Birdman's been way better than Bynum.

Right now, the Lakers would be favored in matchups against Dallas, Atlanta, Boston and perhaps Orlando in terms of overall talent.

The Lakers are clearly more talented than Dallas and Atlanta...period. But, if the Celtics had Kevin Garnett and the Magic had a healthy squad including Lee and Nelson, than the Lakers wouldn't be more talented than either of those teams.

In fact, the only reason the Lakers are the favorites is because of #24. I'll go deeper into this "The Lakes are the Deepest Most Talented Team" argument in the coming days. I still expect the Lakers to make the Finals, but it won't be because they have the most collective talent, it will be because they have the most talented player in the West.

Lopsided Trades and Round 2

With the Nuggets surging into the second round of the playoffs with their complete dismantling of the New Orleans Hornets, there's a lot of talk of how lopsided a deal the Iverson for Billups trade was. I've gone over the Pau for Kwame/Marc Gasol/Darrell Arthur/J Critt deal many times before in this blog and my others, so I'll just briefly recount why that wasn't such a bad deal for the Grizz.

The Grizz freed themselves of Pau's huge contract saving over $30 million, got back their conditional first round pick from the Wizards by trading Crittenton and added two starters in Marc Gasol, one of the best most consistent rookies in a deep rookie class, as well as the upside of Darrell Arthur. Depending on who they draft with their conditional first round pick, in a couple of years, the trade could look nearly even.

The same can be said about Iverson for Billups. Has Mr. Big Shot been Big for the Nugs? Of course he has. Is he the sole reason for their ascension (which, in all honesty was only four games better than last year in a conference riddled with key injuries: Chandler, Ginobili, Parker, Bynum, TMac, Boozer, Williams, Amare, Monta Ellis, Terry, Howard etc.)?

No way in hell.

A healthy Nene is just as big. The more than pleasant surprises of Dahntay Jones and Chris Anderson (who was second in the league in blocked shots despite only playing 21 minutes a game) and the continued health of Kenyon Martin have also been major contributing factors.

Everyone talks about how much better Billups has made this team, but few mention how Melo had his worst shooting percentage (44 percent) since his sophomore campaign after having a career year in that area (49 percent) last season playing alongside Iverson.

Also, the thing about trades is that year one only tells a fraction of the story. Shaq for Odom/Grant/Butler looked horrible at first, but it turned into Odom and Gasol which, from the way the Lakers are playing, looks to be even better than anything Shaq would be giving the Lakers right now. Similarly, Kidd for Harris is looking more and more like a pretty decent, as opposed to a horrifically awful, deal.

If the Pistons get Chris Bosh or Dywane Wade or Amare Stoudemire this off season or the next, they'd look pretty damn smart for trading for Iverson this season, in a year when they had little hope of beating the Celtics or Cavs. After Sunday's (May 26) inevitable thrashing, all that delicious AI salary, all $21 million of it, is no longer on their books.

On the flipside, the Nugs will have a hard time keeping this group together seeing as how Kleiza might be snagged away and Dahntay Jones and Chris Anderson are unrestricted free agents who were both making $750 grand. Those salaries are sure to at least triple, and for a team that was doing everything it could to get under the salary cap, those two vital cogs might not be back, especially if the Nugs get manhandled by the Lakers, if they even make it that far to begin with.

Let's not get it twisted. For all this new hype surrounding the Nugs, people are forgetting that they faced a hobbled New Orleans team that had absolutely no bench, and maybe 2/5ths of a starting five worth a damn.

The Mavs, meanwhile, faced a hobbled Spurs team, who was similarly without a bench (though, I'd take the Spurs bench in a heartbeat over the Hornets bench) and with or without key injured players. The Mavs, in their four convincing victories, won by an average margin of 13 points. That's against the 4-time champion Spurs, the best team of the new century.

I mean, if the Spurs had matched up against the Hornets, who would have been favored in that series? It would have been close, but I'm still picking the Spurs. I mean, what have the Hornets even really done? They have never made it past the second round. Parker is not quite Chris Paul, but he's close and even a hobbled Duncan is better than West. I'd also go with Pop over Scott.

All that to say that the Mavs played and beat a tougher opponent than the Nuggets and aren't getting nearly the hype the Nugs are because they only beat blew out the Spurs by 21 in their most lopsided victory.

So, for the Nugs to cruise through their first round series is a good sign of a team gelling at the right time, but a 58-point beating of an already beaten team does not convince me that the Nuggets are a vastly superior squad to the Mavericks (as Charles Barkley continued to state during last night's Inside the NBA). In fact, this Nuggets team could very much lose to an equally hot Mavericks squad.

And, if that's the case, then is this Denver team really worth $70 plus million? And if it isn't worth $70 million and doesn't have true championship aspirations, then wouldn't it have been better served to keep AI for one last season and aggressively pursue a player that could put them over the top in the West with the extra $21 million?

Don't judge the trades in their first season. I'd give them at least three years. Being a GM is about patience and planning as much as it is about being in the moment.

Round 2, as much as round 1 did, will show everyone how much influence the blockbuster trades of the past two seasons have had.

Westside Connection Pt. 1

Westside Connection will be posts that highlight a few different teams each week. Here's the first installment featuring the Clippers and the Nuggets.

-Denver, with their trade for Chauncy Billups, have boosted themselves up into the playoffs, especially considering the Clippers’ dreadful start, Portland’s injury to Greg Oden, and San Antonio looking like they have a big 2 and that’s it. Chauncy Billups is exactly what the Nugs need. He is selfless, a real point who gets others involved, and one who can muscle opposing guards and play way better defense at the one than Denver has seen in years. Plus, he will get the ball to Melo, J.R. Smith, and Nene, so the team will stop giving Kenyon Martin 12 shots per game. K-Mart is best as a finisher. Let Chaunce be the initiator. The team even has a decent bench now, with Linas Kleiza, Chris Anderson, Renaldo Balkman and Anthony Carter. You can even throw in Cheik Samb, who should get some minutes with Steven Hunter's knee being messed up.

-Another tough loss for the Clippers tonight. They played, for the first 3 quarters, as I had envisioned them playing when they made their roster overhaul. They held the high-scoring Lakers to only 71 points over the first 36 minutes. They played slowed down, grind-it-out defense. Marcus Camby got 7 boards and 4 blocks…in 16 minutes. He and Kaman with Baron (3 steals) is a formidable trio on defense. The rest of the team is shaping up too. Al Thornton, by the way, looks like the real deal on offense. He’s taken another step towards improvement. He’s got a pretty consistent, though admittedly ugly-looking fadeaway jumpshot that, when he shoots it, you look and think, “Damn, that’s ugly, no way that’s going…” and then he nails it. Mike Taylor is greased lightening. All he needs is a chance to, gasp, play more. 7 and 4 with only a single turnover in 12 minutes is better than anything Jason Hart could hope to do on his best day.

-The main problems for the team are that Baron hasn’t found his shot yet, they’ve played two whole games together, and that Mike Dunleavy doesn’t know how to utilize the talent he has on his team. He’s totally misused Ricky Davis.

-Come to think about it, I’m about to call for Mike Dunleavy’s head. Cat Mobley getting 39 minutes? Really? I mean, really? He shot 4-11 and actually improved his overall shooting percentage to 39 percent. He’s at 33 percent from beyond the arc. He’s sporting a 0.5 assist to turnover ratio, a nifty little 9.75 PER and jacking up nearly 14 shots per game. I don’t know what Eric Gordon has done, or if Dunleavy just has some sort of prejudice against athletic wings who get to the hole (Maggette), but EG should be playing. Period. No question. Who cares if the team struggles with him out there? They’re 0-5 anyway and Eric can’t possibly do any worse than Mobley. Plus, there’s plenty of upside. Gordon’s a solid defender, so there won’t be too much drop off there. What he brings to the table is the ability to actually shoot the freaking ball. He can rain threes from anywhere—which would open up the middle for Kaman and Camby to go to work instead of allowing opposing defenders just cram the middle. Thornton has improved his 3 (hit 2 of 3 tonight) but the team needs floor spacing. Gordon would provide that. Plus, he’s the future, and Mobley is not. I hope they are showcasing Cat in the hopes of trading him, but at the rate he’s “producing” the Clips would be better off sitting him and letting his rapidly fading rep of a savvy veteran do the talking.

-Uh…pretty much ditto for Tim Thomas. Though, while I’m sure DeAndre Jordan would bring some WOW dunks, he might look completely lost out there. Then again, pot-smoking Darrell Arthur is playing well out in Memphis, so why not roll the dice on the upside? What have they got to lose…More games?

-Check my Lakers blog for a Lakers update www.nflfootballonline.com/dodgerblue15/weblog/5230/how-does-kobe-be-better-than-mj.html